Great video as always!

Hi!

Great video as always!

24:30, LHE 85o. A couple of quick preflop questions and a longer post flop question for you.

I would normally open 98o, 86s on the BTN as the worst comparable hands.
1. Am I playing too tight in that spot vs a normal BB?
2. Am I not opening up enough if I fold 85o vs a tight BB?

With regards to calling the flop raise in this spot ”against a normal check-raise frequency” with back door straight draw and back door spades, it seems like a loose call to me. Assuming that our opponent starts with a range of 15%-70% and in a best case (LAG) scenario check-raises all his pairs or better, all gut-shots (23,25,35,JT,KT,KJ) spade flush draws as well as back door heart flush draws I get our equity to 22% and it would be only 16% if our opponent choose not to check-raise his hh and the low gut-shots.

Once we call the flop raise, I guess our plan will be to call the turn on all 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 and spades, since we then will have at least 14% equity and we are calling 4k to win 29k plus possibly some implied odds on the river action.

So, once we decide to call the flop raise we will call the turn bet 47% of the times (22 out of 47 cards). Our average equity on those turns will be ca 28% when our opponent also check-raise all hh and low gut-shots.

If we forget the river action for now, we will on good turns call 6k for a chance to win 29k. Our average equity will be ca 28% so we will win 8 120, making a profit in those cases of 2 120 chips. On bad turns we will call 2k and then fold on turn. (That is the average EV on the 22 turns we call, not taking into consideration that some turns would occur more often than others due to blockers in opponents range.)

Our EV on the flop/turn calls will be: 0.47 x 2120 - 0.53 x 2000 = 996 – 1060 = - 64 chips.

If we assume that our opponent don’t check-raise with hh, 23, 25, 35 we will on the turns we choose to play have even worse EV, down to ca 24%. And our profit on those flop/turns would instead be 24% of 29k minus our investment of 6k = 960.

Our EV on the flop/turn calls will then be: 0.47 x 960 - 0.53 x 2000 = 451 – 1060 = - 609 chips.

Whether we have any implied (or reverse implied) odds on the river or not I guess is debatable and dependent on the opponent, but since we will end up with many river hands that might be hard to play I don´t think we can count on much extra EV due to that vs most opponents.

If my calculations and assumptions are correct I would rather say that this spot with a back door straight draw and a backdoor flush draw is a clear fold against almost any opponent.

What do you think Iteopepe88? Or anyone else with an opinion 

Hi,

I think that's a fair range to open from the BTN. However against a slightly tight button we can expend our range a little bit. And actually in this situation if the small blind is sitting out, and my read if the BB is too tight is correct (which means, he 3bets less he should, he folds his BB more, and he is more passive postflop) i think we can open ATC.

I think i want to correct myself now. I said in the video that GTO we should definately continue against the checkraise which you disagreed (85o, on AQ4ss). I am running a PIOsolver simulation in the meantime, however it will be hugely depend on our ranges. For that simulation i gave myself 78% of the hands (any suited hand, J6o+, T6o, etc.), and for the big blind a normal BB defend range with a 3bet range.

Without looking the result i still think it's close. But wouldnt be shocked if PIO folds my hand 100% :) I think your calculation "forget" that we not only call because we have enough equity. The EV should not only come from making our hand (since it's quite hard to make a good hand with 85o and AQ4), but we can also take away the pot even if we miss, but the board runs out favorouble for us. For example, if the turn is a 3s-2s-6s-7s, all of these gaves me a gutshot and a weak fdraw i would semibluff raise and if we opponent bets the turn with all of his hand then he will be in a tough spot with his Qx/4x.

If he checkraises all of his pairs/gutshot/fdraws/some backdoor draws then he should slow down, and check actually most turns with 4x, and also check some turns with Qx.

Here i also give myself a GTO cbet (which i dont think it's true, i think to be honest i cbet here 100%). But actually in this spot PIO only cbets 44,63%, and 85o is a cbet around 65% of the time.
Against the craise it's completely a mix, it still folds a fair amount, but it continues non 0%.

But as i said the ranges here are a little bit unclear both for the button and for the bigblind. That's why i am hesitant to give you a proper PIO answer/confirmation. Also if i cbet 100%, then BB should craise more which will mean we also fold less, so then our continue frequency also increases.
Obviously our direct equity is very small against the BB checkraising range (in this simulation with 85o it's 20%), but we plan to do some amount of bluffing with these hand types and that's why we can continue on the flop sometimes.

"Maybe I should not make instructional video when I don't know what is happening"
lol, nice self-deprecating remark