10:25 I would not encourage students to go North. Of course we are all here to make money in poker, but do we really want to break the rules? This seems like shady advice to me and just greed. There is already enough angle shooting and cheating going on in live games that I don't want to be part of this crowd. No one says anything about going North, but they definitely think it. People are just not brave enough to say anything. If you want to cover the whale who built up their stack then do it in an honest fashion or go play an uncapped game.
Would you say the same thing about going south? I agree casino needs more consequences for breaking some of the rules. Just yesterday there is no smoking in the poker room. Guy on my table would vape 2-3x each dealer and each time the dealer would tell him "no vaping in the poker room." Player would just say "sorry I forgot." Happened over and over again.
Was in a $1/$3 game and table next to mine broke and a whale sitting with like $900 came to my table and sat down with $100 leaving $800 on the table in a rack next to him. Supposed to bring your entire stack, but if you say something about going south to the whale he is just going to go home. As this money clearly locked up. Is it better to have him go home or try and have him donate that $100?
$5/$10 game has a $1500 cap at some casinos. Whale on the other table gets deep, so a regular ask for a table change and shows up on the other table with $3500, extra $2k he didn't have before he changed tables. Without whales and fish the games don't run, so allowing regulars to go north in order to stack the fish faster kills the game. Its like fishing with electricity. Where do we draw the line? End of the day its becoming a free for all. Regs going north, fish going south, and people following the rules seems to suffer.
But my point is if your ok with Regs going North, then you should allow fish to go south.
There's a big difference between going north and going south in terms of game integrity. Short stacks in ring games have a structural advantage even at equilibrium. If you haven't studied the dynamics of how that works then you're going to have to trust me on that, but it's a fundamental property of ring poker.
Going north between hands is -EV at equilibrium and can only be +EV if you have a significant edge. There's an important distinction to be made between actions that give you a fundamental advantage and actions that give you a fundamental disadvantage that can only turn into an advantage by playing well.
Are you separating life bankroll from your poker bankroll? If your bills are say $4k a month, so you need about $50k a year in living expenses, maybe more but just an example. So $50k in your bank needs to be separate from poker bankroll. If you use 50 buy-ins for poker, you would advise having $100k in the bank to play $5/$10?
Absolutely. Everything must be completely separate. Your bankroll doesn't have to be 100% cash. I suggest holding some of it in stocks, bonds, and crypto. But never commingle funds.
I think for poker bankroll management live players can move-up rather quickly based on the variance. 50 buy-ins is a blanket statement for how many buy-ins you really need to move up, but depending on your win rate the risk of ruin will be lower. So the lowest stakes you need less buy-ins in your bankroll.
If you look at this image I put in 30bb/100 for the win rate. This is based on about 33 hands per hour and a 10bb/hr win rate for live poker. Poker dope thinks you only need about 4 buy-in bankroll for this high of a win rate. Risk of ruin being less than 1%. This is based on about 6,000 hands which I figured if someone plays about 160 hours a month they will be in the 5000-6000 hand range. For games such as $1/$2 or $1/$3 having something like 10 buy-in bankroll should be sufficient for building a roll.
As I plug in more numbers like 15bb/100 over 5,000 hands or 5bb/hr win rate for live now there is almost a 12% chance of losing over 5,000 hands. Pokerdope still thinks you only need about 8 buy-in bankroll for this win rate.
Overall I would use something like
$1/$2 to $1/$3 about 10 buy-in bankroll
$2/5 20 buy-ins
$5/$10 40 buy-ins.
Yea, you must track “bonuses” separate but a normal “rake back” can be added or filtered for.
I agree with both Hunter and Bart w/moving up. Leaving money on the table but the perk imo is “less stress” and possibly less chance of burn out/playing less than “A” game,
Those bankroll restrictions are reasonable if you have another source of income. If you're playing for a living -- especially if you have people who depend on you -- definitely err on the side of caution. The Kelly criterion assumes 1) you know the exact EV of your bet, and 2) the EV of that bet will never change. That's totally unrealistic. You need to have at least double the number of buy ins that Prime Dope says.
Hey I enjoy this talk with your student a lot Hunter! Good stuff, thanks for this.
Just one quick question, you mentioned using pio in later part of this vid, in you mind, what's the biggest difference to model a spot playing a live game vs online? Thank you :)
When you're using Pio to simulate live cash, you need to 1) make Villain's preflop range wider; 2) decrease Villain's 3-bet frequency; and 3) decrease Villain's xr frequency.
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10:25 I would not encourage students to go North. Of course we are all here to make money in poker, but do we really want to break the rules? This seems like shady advice to me and just greed. There is already enough angle shooting and cheating going on in live games that I don't want to be part of this crowd. No one says anything about going North, but they definitely think it. People are just not brave enough to say anything. If you want to cover the whale who built up their stack then do it in an honest fashion or go play an uncapped game.
I think going north is so common that capped games shouldn't even exist. There's zero penalty for doing it. Why do we have rules with no penalties?
Would you say the same thing about going south? I agree casino needs more consequences for breaking some of the rules. Just yesterday there is no smoking in the poker room. Guy on my table would vape 2-3x each dealer and each time the dealer would tell him "no vaping in the poker room." Player would just say "sorry I forgot." Happened over and over again.
Was in a $1/$3 game and table next to mine broke and a whale sitting with like $900 came to my table and sat down with $100 leaving $800 on the table in a rack next to him. Supposed to bring your entire stack, but if you say something about going south to the whale he is just going to go home. As this money clearly locked up. Is it better to have him go home or try and have him donate that $100?
$5/$10 game has a $1500 cap at some casinos. Whale on the other table gets deep, so a regular ask for a table change and shows up on the other table with $3500, extra $2k he didn't have before he changed tables. Without whales and fish the games don't run, so allowing regulars to go north in order to stack the fish faster kills the game. Its like fishing with electricity. Where do we draw the line? End of the day its becoming a free for all. Regs going north, fish going south, and people following the rules seems to suffer.
But my point is if your ok with Regs going North, then you should allow fish to go south.
There's a big difference between going north and going south in terms of game integrity. Short stacks in ring games have a structural advantage even at equilibrium. If you haven't studied the dynamics of how that works then you're going to have to trust me on that, but it's a fundamental property of ring poker.
Going north between hands is -EV at equilibrium and can only be +EV if you have a significant edge. There's an important distinction to be made between actions that give you a fundamental advantage and actions that give you a fundamental disadvantage that can only turn into an advantage by playing well.
Are you separating life bankroll from your poker bankroll? If your bills are say $4k a month, so you need about $50k a year in living expenses, maybe more but just an example. So $50k in your bank needs to be separate from poker bankroll. If you use 50 buy-ins for poker, you would advise having $100k in the bank to play $5/$10?
Absolutely. Everything must be completely separate. Your bankroll doesn't have to be 100% cash. I suggest holding some of it in stocks, bonds, and crypto. But never commingle funds.
Loved the video and the format, thank you.
Thanks for the feedback. Happy you enjoyed it :-)
I think for poker bankroll management live players can move-up rather quickly based on the variance. 50 buy-ins is a blanket statement for how many buy-ins you really need to move up, but depending on your win rate the risk of ruin will be lower. So the lowest stakes you need less buy-ins in your bankroll.
If you look at this image I put in 30bb/100 for the win rate. This is based on about 33 hands per hour and a 10bb/hr win rate for live poker. Poker dope thinks you only need about 4 buy-in bankroll for this high of a win rate. Risk of ruin being less than 1%. This is based on about 6,000 hands which I figured if someone plays about 160 hours a month they will be in the 5000-6000 hand range. For games such as $1/$2 or $1/$3 having something like 10 buy-in bankroll should be sufficient for building a roll.
As I plug in more numbers like 15bb/100 over 5,000 hands or 5bb/hr win rate for live now there is almost a 12% chance of losing over 5,000 hands. Pokerdope still thinks you only need about 8 buy-in bankroll for this win rate.
Overall I would use something like
$1/$2 to $1/$3 about 10 buy-in bankroll
$2/5 20 buy-ins
$5/$10 40 buy-ins.
Hunter Cichy does this sound reasonable?
Yea, you must track “bonuses” separate but a normal “rake back” can be added or filtered for.
I agree with both Hunter and Bart w/moving up. Leaving money on the table but the perk imo is “less stress” and possibly less chance of burn out/playing less than “A” game,
Those bankroll restrictions are reasonable if you have another source of income. If you're playing for a living -- especially if you have people who depend on you -- definitely err on the side of caution. The Kelly criterion assumes 1) you know the exact EV of your bet, and 2) the EV of that bet will never change. That's totally unrealistic. You need to have at least double the number of buy ins that Prime Dope says.
Hey I enjoy this talk with your student a lot Hunter! Good stuff, thanks for this.
Just one quick question, you mentioned using pio in later part of this vid, in you mind, what's the biggest difference to model a spot playing a live game vs online? Thank you :)
When you're using Pio to simulate live cash, you need to 1) make Villain's preflop range wider; 2) decrease Villain's 3-bet frequency; and 3) decrease Villain's xr frequency.
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