How To Increase your Winrate in Live Games

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How To Increase your Winrate in Live Games

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Stelios Serefidis

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How To Increase your Winrate in Live Games

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Stelios Serefidis

POSTED May 16, 2016

Stelios breaks downs the pros and cons of live poker vs online and discusses ways in which you can increase your win rate when playing in live games.

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Matthew Hunt 8 years, 10 months ago

Great video! Going to be playing a lot of live cash this summer and I never thought about any of these ideas before.

Question: do you think there's an argument for using a limp-only strategy in early/middle position at extremely passive $1/2 tables where most pots are limped multi-way? I'm thinking about those tables where everyone plays with a 50% VPIP and 5% PFR.

I was thinking that we might be able to open-limp something like 30-35% of hands profitably in a lot of spots given we're so rarely going to be isolated, and that might be better versus a table of bad players than raising a range of 15% and getting called in 3-4 spots every time anyway. It also minimises pot size to keep us from getting raked too much, and minimises preflop variance to an extent also.

Stelios Serefidis 8 years, 10 months ago

Limping is great in these tables but I would still raise some strong hands to avoid crazy multi-way situations

Matthew Hunt 8 years, 10 months ago

Okay, cool. So let's say we're UTG 9-handed, we're okay with a super-exploitative strategy of raising top 10% or so, open-limping like the next 20% below that, and then folding the rest? Are we mixing at all and occasionally limping hands we might want to limp-3-bet?

simrud 8 years, 10 months ago

Great stuff about why we are even there playing live - with so little hands sans the big losing players it is a grand waste of time!

Nothing more annoying than pros / regs who don't get it and cost everybody money. That is the aspect of any non HU game that I find fascinating (and most frustrating) - other people's play can actually turn an otherwise +EV strategy -EV while still being -EV for itself.

R0b5ter 8 years, 9 months ago

Stelios, I have some comments.

Chapter 1.
Hand 1: The concept of wanting to play your pots vs the "fun" players is super standard. Online and live.
Hand 2: I don't agree that isolating the fun players a lot is a mistake by itself. First of all the other regs at the table will probably understand your concept from hand 1 and not 3bet that much to keep the fun players in the pot. Secondly when playing live we can have effective stacks of several hundred bbs. This changes the hand value of so many hands and we will want to play a lot more hands, especially IP vs fun players.

Chapter 2.
All of these examples are really not that interesting since they are so specific to the casino rules. If we are visiting a casino that implements certain rules the winrate will probably not be effective enough for us to make an effort in changing our standard lines. If we are playing a lot at a casino that implements certain rules like you describe than developing a non standard strategy is worth the effort but then it will be very specific.

We need many more Live videos since the game is gravitating a lot towards live games.

As a start though I'd say that concepts that need to addressed are general live game tendencies like limping, playing deep, playing vs maniacs, tells etc.

Garret Adelstein had a great series going here a few years back but unfortunately he stopped it after just a few videos. It would be great if someone could take over.

I've changed my game from online 100% to live 95% the last 2 years and I think it's extremely fun and profitable.

mike 8 years, 9 months ago

I can agree with your thoughts but who the hell plays in games rake like this? Is the rake really that bad outside the US?

I have playing thousands of hours of live poker across the US in both club games and casinos and only once say a 10% no cap rake(on cruise ship). The highest rake I have seen in US casino is $5+2. And most the private games are something like 5% with $10 cap and sometimes a small door charge. I have also found most casino 5/10NL games to be time charge of $7 per 1/2 hour.

Other factor is most places will consider you bet as part of the pot in determining how much to rake so if you raise a bit smaller to avoid some threshold of rake you also have to factor in your CB.

kishan 8 years, 9 months ago

Nicely done. I think this is one of the best videos on this site. I think this topic doesnt get enough attention usually, especially players playing at high rake home games. Where some of these games arent even beatable with 10% 50 dollar max rakes. What are your thoughts on these games. I am referring to 5-10 PLO games in particular.

texag2002 8 years ago

Though I will admit that knowing the rake is important to game selection, I think you're too focused on the rake here. Avoiding playing for a pot because it has a higher actual rake is just silly. Sure there becomes some limit to where what you're saying is true, but at that point I would make the argument that you shouldn't play that game at all. For instance, I played an underground game $1/$2 NLHE where the rake was supposedly 10% capped at $5. I noticed after about an hour into the session that the dealer was pulling about 30% uncapped. It was no wonder why I had slightly less than a starting stack even though I took down a couple of med size pots. If I had known that going in I wouldn't have played. I quickly got up and left and texted my buddy that he should leave too. Rake should be more of a variable of game selection rather than hand strategy. Once you choose to play a game knowing the stakes, you should put the rake out of your mind.

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