Hot and Cold Equity
Posted by Tom Coldwell
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That is golden!
I just love how you always say hi to me at the start of the video Tom.
Good video I think that it would have been helpful to also talk about rough minimum equity advantages to push given PF effective stacks. Intuitively we know we need about 50% @ 100bbs, but when thinking about playing against short stacks and cap games the dead money starts to have an effective on the minimum equity edge that I will push (specially if I am OOP)
In example if we open 3bbs and the button 3bs to 9bbs there is 13.5bbs in the middle and we need what minimum equity to breakeven.
20bb eff 17/41.5 = ~42%
40bb eff 37/81.5 = ~45%
50bb eff 47/101.5 = ~46%
So some of these closer hands can move into the shove when we are OOP on the flop and going to be in awkward SPR situations if we call. Also we are able to put a lot of pressure on villains and might be able to get some incorrect folds from villains if they figure us for an AAxx heavy range.
Lol. I just can't think of another way to begin awkwardly talking to my computer :p
As for the idea of adding in these min thresholds, I certainly think that would have been a good and relevant addition. The reason I didn't do this is because the question I originally set out to answer was merely what is a favourite over what as opposed to what can I stack off without making a mistake - I was intrigued as to how wide I could "value-shove" in a simplistic way against aggressive 3-bettors. Indeed, if I were to go about incorporating this information into the creation of a 4-bet range, I wouldn't advise merely to pick the >50% (or >threshold) hands, especially deeper. Nor would I necessarily jettison all the ones below those lines.
With regards to the hands which fall somewhere near the cutoff for getting it in pre without making a mistake, I think it would heavily depend on how they flop as to whether getting them in would be good. Unsuited, paired QQT6 or something is a hand I would rather just get in pre (if it's okay to do so), whereas a double-suited JT87 is something I would prefer to call and hit with, even if the two happened to have similar equity. However, I would certainly agree that being aware of these sorts of thresholds and how they interact with our hands' hot and cold equities would be very useful in nailing down our 4-betting strategy.
Great,great video,very usefull informations, nice job man !
great!
A+! Please keep making these type of videos. Best content on the site IMO.
Thanks for the comments guys, glad you enjoyed it. If you have any topics you'd liked covered in the future, don't forget to message them to me.
'Getting it in' in 3bet pots. Especially on the flop. Alot of midstakes player say that a big weakness of small/microstakes players is playing too passive/weak in 3bet pots so this would be great to cover. I prefer postflop stuff over preflop in general.
At first time, thank you Tom for this video, a really very usefull tool agains short stacks. I have been playing PLO 25, 50 and 100 for a year with very good results, and I nociced that that limits are getting very agressive. The type of player who 3bets light over 40% (or more) of his range, is becoming a typicall player on those games, even regular players. But I have a few questions to do if the effective stack is not short, I mean, about 100bbs or more, against that type of player. I thougt you can help me at this point so...
1. What happens if after our 4bet (with the estimate profitable range of your video, I mean, big pair hands, ds high rundowns, big ds pairs etc), the villain is only 5bet/shove you with his AAxx hands?
If you do the maths, you can see that we are not in a good shape to get allin pre against Aces, and...
2. What happens if with the other part of his range, he is flat calling your 4bet, leaving a Stack Pot Ratio under 1 (with 100bbs) or between 1 or 2 with larger stacks?
I assume that villain is competent and is call/shoving on flop any pair or any draw so...
3. Do you think we really have an equity edge against that type of villains play?
I tried to do the maths myself, but it is very hard to me with my current knowledge. And, finally,
4. Dont you think this is going to create a high variance play, that we could avoid by playing more "small ball"?
If our skills post flop are better than villain, why we have to create a situacion of such high variance?
And thats all. Thank you very much.
1) The purpose of this video was not purely to suggest a 4-betting range, but to answer the question, "Which hands could theoretically be 4-bet for value?" The deeper we are, the further from this table my 4-betting range would want to deviate for a number of reasons (playability, board coverage, equity distribution etc.). However, if you are in a spot where a hand is a theoretical value 4-bet, but couldn't stack off against AA** (post 4-bet) and you know that villain will only 5-bet AA**, I would look into what portion of villain's range includes AA (this is done simply by using the count function in PPT on his 3-bet range, then again on his 3-bet:AA range - his 5-bet range. Divide the later by the former and you'll have his 5-bet frequency). If he's 5-betting very infrequently, you can probably 4-bet/fold knowing that the vast majority of the time you will be jamming flop in a 4-bet pot with enough equity+fold equity to make a solid profit (you would have to run sims to have a more exact approximation of how good/bad this is). But yeah, some analysis like that should give you an idea of how well this will work for you.
2) As I kinda mentioned above, once I've 4-bet and have a tiny SPR, I will almost always just jam the rest in given my equity+fold equity should make it fine. There are rare occasions where this won't be our preference, but all in all that is our normal line. This is because people are often folding like 40%+ in 4-bet pots which is just huge for us given we'll usually have okay(ish) equity when called. Obv if you are jammed into you should call off if you have equity and fold if not.
3) I think we certainly have an edge against people 3-betting like 40%. They are over-committing with a wide, weak range and we should be able to punish them accordingly. This may require us to tighten up preflop to such an extent that we 4-bet the majority of our opens (if they don't adjust, we could even limp our normal raise/calling range), but there is certainly money to be made. If you are interested in combating true crazies, I have a video on that which you can find here: Combating Crazies.
4) There is certainly merit against truly insane villains of increasing the number of postflop decisions where we can leverage our edge to a greater extent. I would mainly be looking to do this in position (thus 4-betting a narrower range BTN vs. SB and the equivalent).
Hope that covers everything you wanted me to go over. Sorry this took me a couple of days, I meant to reply sooner but shut the tab in my browser and completely forgot.
Thank you Tom!!! Thats exactelly what I needed. I actually saw your video "combating crazies, and I really like it very much, but in this case, I was looking for defense against those really maniacs who pots every preflop and street, and this work of Hot-Cold equity, really helps.
Very nice job!! Thank you
Great stuff!
very very valuable for me.
good vid!
Your double pair syntax is incorrect. (JJ-77:JJ-77) is the same as (JJ-77). You can type that in Range Explorer and see it yourself in 'Show Hands' tab. One of correct ways would be ([77-JJ][77-JJ]).
I used to make the same mistake myself when trying to shortcut a range of sets/2pairs. For example on QJT I would write (Q,J,T):(Q,J,T). It's very wrong though.
Good spot. It checks the hand fits category 1 by having the pair and then checks the 2nd which it obviously now satisfies with the pair to satisfy the first. I should have written something like: (JJ-77)(JJ-77)!RRR or what you suggested.
Late to the party, but just wanted to say "great video", Tom. I'm new to PPT and frequently find myself staring at the screen wondering how to approach questions like these. I'm also new to RIO. Can anyone recommend other PLO math/analysis vids like this one?
So are you assuming that villain never folds? And just calculating equity of these hands vs their range?
nice vid. thxs
First video I watch on the site and it is excelent, thxs.
learning Omaha after some break from poker altogether due to the regulations in my country + transitioning from NLHE and I must say I enjoyed this video a lot. Great job!
same here! good luck
7 years late but still helpful
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