Study With Me: Learning From my Mistakes

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Study With Me: Learning From my Mistakes

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Horseofhell

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Study With Me: Learning From my Mistakes

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Horseofhell

POSTED Sep 25, 2023

When we are studying we are trying to learn from our mistakes so we don't make them again. Unfortunately in poker sometimes things are not that easy. Join Horseofhell as he goes through some more recent hand histories where he makes mistakes very similar to ones he made in the previous video.

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PokerNinjas 1 year, 5 months ago

855K7 board:
I'm very surprised to hear that 77 is close to a river check. How often does OOP have 88 and KK there?

7796K board:
You mention IP has a ton of Kings. He bet-called flop and called a PSB on 9776 (where he can already fold most hands other than trips). What % of his range is KK?

Thanks.

Horseofhell 1 year, 5 months ago

855K7:
So on the river before the OOP player checks, they have 16% of hands better than 88 of which 50% check. KK specifically the OOP player has 12% of and is checking 60%. Big reason why KK ends up checking a lot is just because its very hard to get value when we so heavily block all the calls. Especially hands like AAK, KKQ, KK5 those all really like checking as the IP player does sometimes go for some thin mergy value with stuff like AA8 (similar to our check raise with AA96). Also stuff like QQ8 can raise for IP. So having an A or Q or even J blocks some of the biggest SDV hands for the IP player.

This hand specifically is very close to checking back because AA is a big portion of the bluffcatchers for the OOP player, especially when we bet smaller sizings IP. So blocking Ax is kinda bad for our hand as we get called less often. Something like QQ77 which doesn't block any bluffcatchers still goes a more medium sizing because we just never have pots in this spot because of our polarity disadvantage (even after the OOP player checks) but now potting does become better than checking back. So that just goes to show that small changes to our hand which block/unblock bluffcatching ranges can have big impacts in the EV of our valuebet.

7796K:
To be honest, looking back at how I worded this in the video and taking another look at the sim I think I messed up in the video because you're right IP doesn't have that much KK. It's like 4% so its not 0% but its not a toooonnnn of KK which is what I said in the video. This is kind of misleading and also just wrong imo so sorry for that that was my bad. The main KK IP has is stuff like KK9 or KK with a doublepair stuff like that. Now in hindsight taking a look at the sim again while I do think blocking KK plays a factor, I think a combination of also blocking K7 is more what drives the Kx heavy bluffing ranges for the OOP player as the IP range contains 8% K7. So a total of 12% of easy snapcalls for the IP players are Kx hands.

So while KK certainly plays a factor, it's not the only factor and wording it as such in the video was a mistake

SoundSpeed 1 year, 5 months ago

Great review.These review vids are incredibly insightful.

15:30 my first thought was actually xf the flop. We don't have a diamond and our bd draw and gutter are weak and we are oop.

19:50 is this flop raise looking to target bare overpairs to fold?

25:15 what would the bottom of our continue range be? Maybe top pair or overpair plus nut flush draw?

Would we want to iso jam sets and 2pr with a redraw?

34:40 is the turn bet basically a semibluff? It seems too thin to be value.

42:35 does opponent make the river call without a straight blocker?

Thanks!

Horseofhell 1 year, 5 months ago

19:50 I wouldn't expect that many overpairs to fold vs the raise. Maybe some weaker ones but in general I'm mostly trying to deny equity from hands with overcards since our hand has tricky playability, but also we are setting up with a combo like this to barrel on a lot of turns and rivers which does make the overpairs fold. This spot is kind of hard to think about in terms of 'targeting x or y' because even something like QQ8 will raise as IP a decent amount of the time. Are we now targeting KK and AA? Of course not. We even get called by worse sometimes!

25:15 In this spot we really wanted the FD to go with our overpairs we were incredibly tight. Doesn't have to be the nut flush draw fwiw. Also something like AAJT is good enough basically we need robust additional equity and just a gutter doesn't cut it.

34:40 Its a bit of a mergy one for sure. We are getting plenty of overpairs to fold on the turn which is nice. Generally we aren't really getting called by much worse hands so yeah this was a bit on the edge for sure and monker was also on the edge with it mixing it into a check quite often.

42:35 Without the straight blocker they can fold yeah my range is super straight heavy when I pot turn so the straight blocker is by far the most important cards the IP player can have

alexrod99 1 year, 1 month ago

32:14 Sorry to comment again after so long, but I'm rewatching some of your videos and this spot caught my attention.

Do you think the K on this river gives so much polarity advantage even for IP? Thinking that we eliminated part of your KK that 3-bet pre-flop and part of your KK that would play X flop, mainly I believe those that have more future equity that are exactly the type of KK that would continue to turn, I could be wrong, I don't see that spot has been around for a while and it's just a shot, but I'd like to go into more depth about this river, as it looks like a decent bluff to me.

I understand that K is essential for this bluff, but have you checked this hand in the solver? Seems decent to me for bluffing when unlocking clubs + str8

alexrod99 1 year, 1 month ago

But the pot is really mind-blowing and really cool!!

Horseofhell 1 year, 1 month ago

Went back and when I saw the hand you were referring to I instantly remembered lol. Here is the equity graph for the river spot:

And yeah like you said your question very similar to what PokerNinjas asked so my answer there applies as well!

And just for the record literally every hand that I ever talk about in any of my videos has always been verified with a sim before I talk about it (except if it's some mega exploit hand vs a weaker player of course lol) :) I don't want to give you guys bad information so this stuff is always verified. That said sometimes I do overstate things in my words like was the case here I for sure put a bit too much emphasis on KK instead of the overall Kx calling range for IP!

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