Study w/ Me: Big Bets and Big Overbluffs

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Study w/ Me: Big Bets and Big Overbluffs

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Horseofhell

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Study w/ Me: Big Bets and Big Overbluffs

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Horseofhell

POSTED Sep 11, 2023

Join horseofhell for another study session where he analyzes some of his recent hands. Today he runs into a couple spots where he was a bit too eager and aggressive.

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postwar18 1 year, 6 months ago

A6T4: are you expecting IP to fold any amount of overpairs when you donk larger than 1/3? Is it a better set-up for making IP fold future streets?

Horseofhell 1 year, 6 months ago

Def not expecting IP to fold overpairs on the flop. By betting bigger we are like you said setting up for building some bigger pots and playing more aggressively on later streets. There isn't that much difference between donking 1/3rd and 1/2 pot on flop in terms of solver EV to be honest. I just prefer in general to go for half pot donks here because in my head it makes more sense and I think also sets me up to play turns and rivers a bit better since in my head bigger size = more polar range. Just a personal preference thing

postwar18 1 year, 6 months ago

A356: what hands are you targeting by barreling small on turn? Seems like IP will fold very few hands to small barrel. Is it partly to set up some river barrels on favorable cards?

alexrod99 1 year, 6 months ago

I believe that the main point is not the hands he is aiming to fold on this turn but what he represents with low size and high size, I believe that most of the hands that played XR flop that are 4x do not want to make a size high on this turn.(So basically if it wants to represent a larger range of turn values, a low size makes more sense).

But talking about the hands he can fold, some Kx the villain will be forced to fold on this turn like KT,KQ which would not gain extra turn equity (that's my guess).

alexrod99 1 year, 6 months ago

I think that increasing the size of this donk bet flop has to do with the interaction of ranges once again, for example: this spot being CO vs BB maybe 1/3 is better, because naturally the villain has more combos than against 1/3 he would fold . As this spot is an EP vs BB range, there will naturally be more overpairs and unpaired combos that have equity against the BB range and naturally it defends less 2x vs EP, so I think going to a higher size makes more sense. (again this is a guess)

Horseofhell 1 year, 6 months ago

So in terms of what hands are we getting to fold: Some bad Kx folds, and IP has a bunch of underpairs to the K that call the raise on the flop that are going to be folding. But when going small here I'm not really thinking about what am I targeting, rather I'm just thinking ok what does my range look like so in this case I have a lot of KK, K4 and some trips and what does my opponents range look like: he got more KK than me probably cuz of preflop so he has the polarity advantage. In a spot like that I probably don't want to be juicing up the pot too much and I rather play things a bit more cautiously with my entire range. (of course I didn't think that in game as I just rammed it in there lol but hindsight is 20/20).

We will be barreling some favorable cards like low cards but we are gonna be barreling small. After we bet small on turn we are only ever really betting small on the river as well. Kind of for the same reason as why we bet small on turn. We still don't really have the polarity advantage and the giant portion of trips we have in our range just wanna blockbet because once we check and face a bet from IP all the ev of our hand is just gone

SoundSpeed 1 year, 6 months ago

These study with me vids are great!

1:20 without the Kh do we look to xc flop?

6:05 you said you would look to xc river. Opponents range seems overly strong and we block the Kh and an 8 for his draws. It seems loose to xc river.

It really does seem like the moral of the story is that bare top pairs and counterfeit 2 pairs don't have a lot of value and we should more often than not look to turn them into bluffs.

Thanks!

Horseofhell 1 year, 6 months ago

thanks glad you enjoyed it!

1:20 Without the Kh if we had a bdfd we cbet, with no bdfd we just x/f. On these super dynamic boards just a naked top pair isn't good enough to go for a x/c.

6:05 I mean this spot is kinda weird by the river. Either IP has us beat and is always calling river or we have the best hand and IP is always folding and we never get value. When that is the case checking certainly seems to be the play. As for calling I think you are undervaluing our unblockers. So sure the 8 and Kh are not ideal BUT not having 2 hearts is big and unblocking J, Q is big too. In addition the K is a nice card because it blocks IP from valuebetting with KK. Though I think IRL that probably doesn't matter that much because I could see some weaker regs just checking back KK and taking their SDV. If we just think about what type of hands IP will be bluffing with its basically only missed FD and some QJ stuff. So for that reason unblocking those cards is massive.

postwar18 1 year, 6 months ago

chill discussion? I don't considerate someone's unsolicited, presumptious speculations helpful, useful, or polite. I'm asking the content provider, who has reviewed the solutions in Monker, to refine his explanations. I'm sorry if exacting, direct questions run contrary to the "vibe" you're trying to engender.

Horseofhell 1 year, 6 months ago

Do you remember when you were in school and your teacher would tell you to discuss something in a group? The reason for doing that is to get the students engaging in the content. Just getting the answer from the solver won't improve you much. Trust me I've been there for a long time just looking at solver outputs getting the 'answers' without really discussing/thinking about what's going on.

At the end of the day when we are playing poker at the tables we don't care about what the answer is that we found during studying, we care about the thought processes and heuristics we learned during studying. Some of the most insightful studying I've done that I actively remember at the tables has always been me discussing certain ideas/hands with friends and very very rarely do I remember a random answer from the solver from a hand I had looked up some months ago.

Don't be dismissive of peoples thoughts just because you think they are stupid or wrong. Being able to verbalize why you think the other persons opinion is stupid/wrong and having a back and forth about it will help you in the long run as well because it helps you organize your own thoughts. At the end of the day this is what we really need for poker because we need to be able to quickly and efficiently access information from our brains while in game.

It's not even about 'vibe' or whatever I gladly respond to all questions that's not the problem. Just that I have very strong opinions about studying approaches since I know in what ways I've failed in the past and in what ways others around me have failed too.

Horseofhell 1 year, 6 months ago

alexrod99 agree on your post re the big vs small size after the flop xr.

But I'd say be careful not to get super carried away on the 2nd post about the donk sizing. Things like those don't really matter that much in the grand scheme of things and we should just pick the sizing that allows us to play the best and makes sense in our head. The ev difference here between small donk and larger donk is probably not going to be that big. Like I said in my comment to postwar I would just go a bit bigger just because that makes sense to me conceptually and I think it helps me make better decisions on later streets because I conceptually understand a bit better what I'm trying to accomplish after betting bigger on flop but that's just a personal preference thing

postwar18 1 year, 6 months ago

Proselytizing doesn’t suit you; you’re very unsophisticated and pedantic, but I can refrain from making any more comments, it isn’t worth it

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