nice video... I was about to post that you should also post the hands that your bluff failed... But you did it. So you got my like on this. Keep going this good work. It's good to see your fails too because we can know what to expect or predict in the worst case.

5:07 - There`s a flaw in your analysis.You`re only looking at his range, and don`t talk at all about your perceived range and what you rep by shoving there.

You double barrel all your nutted hands, so you don`t have AA,KK,55,A5s,AQ+Jt which i assume you would also bet on the flop.The only hands that make sense in your range are pocket sixes and A6s and 65s, and i doubt you`re shoving those when he reps such a narrow range.

Thanks for video, like your logic in a lot of spots.

I think these spots need more context. Near money, in the money, buy in size/field size/players left would be nice.

6:30 I think he can have TcJc sometime. Although I do think most TJ's are betting flop, TcJc isn't necessary. I can also envision a lot of random guys value/raise call off with KQo here, not even thinking about your range, just playing their hands with a level one mindset

19:35 can you talk about your cbet sizing, seems a little fishy to me, doesn't really set up a nice 2 barrel shoving size, and looks fairly weak. Also, think it's strange you don't mention Axhh for his range, do you deduce those from his range, because you believe the majority of them will be raise/folded/4bet preflop?

26:00 I think your hand is pretty close to the top of your range, definitely top of your non flush range. Would you be raising flop with KBss and ABss on flop? 

I think his AsXo range would be more inclined to 2barrel into a 3barrel shove to maximize fold equity vs 88/99/JJ Tx. (do you even have T's in ur range)  Thoughts?

29:00 phenomenal line and breakdown. Can we take this line with JJ/QQ/KK? (It feels good in theory with KcKx)

Hi guys, thanks negozin.

Polarized, I agree I wouldn't be jamming 65s over this raise, but if I put him squarely on KQ I could jam A6 and 66 (and AQ/QQ/JT).  The problem with my range that you mention is that I don't cbet the flop and with AK/A5/AA/KK/55 I would probably bet, however there are occasions that I would try to check raise flop with some of these hands and given the bet/raise/jam river line I assume he will manage to put me on a slowplayed (or rivered monster) as I don't take this line very often as a bluff.

Todd, in the future I will try to be better at pointing out tourney/situation/history, although recently have just been saving the text while playing a lot of tables, so writing down the situation in detail can be hard.

6.30, ye him calling off KQ is a concern, although I think this shouldn't stop us only repping better hands, and we just hope he thinks what I mentioned above.

19.35 On this board texture and against a shortish stack (and in 3b pots in general) my standard cbet is somewhere around 1/3 pot.  If I had AA in this spot I don't think id necessarily be trying to bet flop and jam turn so not too worried about the perceived 'weak' looking bet.  The reason I assume Axhh is not in his range is that he has flopped the world and is scared of nothing, so assume he wouldn't want to get it in Vs my perceived polarized range.

26.00 No I'd certainly flat those which is why I lent towards fold on this river.  I also don't think I have many or any Tx either.  That being said I don't like any line better than the line I took other than potentially bet calling turn otherwise we just end up with a feel spot on the river.

29.00 Thanks, and totally agree JJ-KK are not much different from A6 here, only that we block 1 trap

Since hand 2 (A2s) is played on .fr it is mandatory that you give some notes on villain and the tourney. E.g. in the 50€ Full KO i would not be surprised to get called by A8 or sth similarly weak. On the other hand villains name sounds like a regular given that he specifies with .fr although i am unaware of this player.

on the first hand why u don t  3b from bb with 67 s and just cl that raise  ? its hard to belive that u beat his open range and playing long term 67s like this its ok ?

Hi guys, Ivo, it was from the 50 euro 6max and it was a reg that I find a little odd which is why I made the play, probably not a good plan v a random.

Radu, I think 67s flops sufficiently well that we don't need to 3b.  We also want to see a flop with this kind of hand with reasonably large effective stacks so we leave our options open.

19'54: You say that you don't think he have AQ. He can flat your 3 bet preflop as deep and decide to raise your cbet? ty for your video

21' JJ: What's the range of vilain for you?  He's FD oriended only for you? You think he decide's to check/raise the turn with his FD range? You prefer 2 barrels with FD, x/r or x/c ?

21: Jj: what's the line of jaymbeyoug with AA/KK/QQ for you? bet/bet/bet?

If you have QQ preflop, you decide to peel or 4 bet shove?

Hi Grandjean, sorry for the delay!

19.54 Ye I felt that with only 24x back for us he'd be jamming over my 3b with AQ every time.  And if he did flat it he'd want to slowplay rather than hope we have AK/AJ.

21 I think by the river I'd assume TT/44/55 or Ax/Kx ss although I don't particularly like a 3b/5b with TT.  So yes I think he may have been trying to check jam the turn with his flushdraws.  If I was him I'd probably take this line to try and make the villain fold 99/AK/AQ.

Yes I think he'd bet/bet/jam better pairs, and if I have QQ I think I'd sigh 4b/call.

6:50 - You say that could be a nice spot to bet/call with the A2s instead of bluff shoving. Dont you think when he raises this river he is either bluffing or he has you beat, so your A2s is basically a bluff catcher. With the line you take there, I dont think he needs to turn any Kx into a bluff by raising there, and the only missed draws that he could raise as a bluff are flush draws and some kind of gut shot with the Q that he decided to turn into a bluff and you have to think he is going to bluff these often enough, what I dont see happening that often... Dont you think check/call or bet/fold are better lines when playing strictly for value?

Hi T1F.  In general I think ch/call and bet/fold are both fine, however, the point I was trying to make here is that our jam is so strong he can't call with almost all of the hands he was going for thin value with, such as KQ/56s.

Hey Paul, Nice video.  I am curious as to the play at 20:17ish.  Do you use this post flop shove formula to calculate shove profitability?  

Or is it more like natural Bayesian hand reading?

Ooops the formula didnt post: 

EVraise = fe*Pot + (1-fe)[Pr(W)*(Pot+Raise) - Pr(L)*(Call+Raise)]

fe = fold equity

Pot = pot amount after villain bet

Pr(W) = hero card equity if called

Pr(L) = 1-Pr(W)

Raise = raise amount

Call = amount of villain’s bet that has to be called (total hero final bet = Call + Raise)

In game when facing a tricky spot like this one I'm almost 100% feel.  However your equation looks correct to me and is interesting to see the profitability of spots like this one.  However, facing polarized spots like this, where when called we have almost no equity I think the profitability comes from our feel/experience.