Hand Reading and Bet Sizing
Posted by Sam Greenwood
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I was thinking yesterday, I & RIO miss your theory vids :)
I am going to try and make enough theory videos to last through SCOOP and WSOP. Expect more coming in the near future.
Great watch, keep em coming!
Really cool video, already waiting for more of this. It's possible to use smthg similar to Toy game 1 in practice, when let's say u defend BB against BU, flop comes QJ2r, both check and u know that BU has middle pair J or A high, so u plan to barrel blanks turn and river full pot or close to it sizing wise. In theory it's right, if we have 10 0s and 20 2s. What bet of pot is right in theory, when we have 20 0s and 10 0s? I guess we don't wanna bet then, cause our range is weaker? So attacking capped ranges after defending with pot size bets is better on lower boards in general?
Coming up with an exact turn vbet/bluff ratio is harder because all your bluffs will have some equity. When your bluffs have equity you get to bluff more combos, but figuring out optimal sizing and the correct vbets/bluff ratio is harder.
If we have 20 0s and 10 2s in a river spot and had a PSB behind. You would want to bluff 5 0s and check the other 15 0s. You still get to bluff but not with every bluffable hand.
The EV table appears to neglect the fact that 50% of the time we are called by a 2 and chop and our EV is 5 regardless of sizing...I also am not understanding how the EV/bet was calculated, perhaps you could elaborate.
In the game there is only one two. If we have a two he can't have a two.
EV/bet = Bluff Frequency x EV Bluff + Vbet frequency x EV Vbet.
Ahh ok
I also thought that there was no removal and both options were equally likely no matter what the opponent has. I solved that game and got that the GTO bet size is (sqrt{24}-4)/2 times the pot, which is almost half the pot. So the result seems rather similar.
really liked the hand example. tied stuff together really well and always cool to hear EPT hands you've encountered
I don't understand why You choose 1/4 pot bet sizing on turn with AQs hand. You say that you expect him to have small number of outs with his blufcatchers and your bluffs are mostly gutshots which have little equity, so in theory situation is similiar to turn polar vs blufcatcher situation and you should bet big to allow yourself to bluff as much as possible on turn. Maybe I'm missing something and you bet smaller because you want to bet thinner for value also with some kings etc and because of that choosing smaller sizing or you're not as polar on turn as I think when betting.
There is still a street to play if i bet big ott. If i full pot the turn he can't call the turn with a bluff catcher that has 33 percent vs. me because he will be often facing a river bet so effectively he is facing a much larger bet OTT.
If i full pot the turn and the river and have a 2:1 value to bluff range.He is not calling 1 into 1 on the turn he is calling 4 into 1 on the turn.
Hi, I don't understand why for the example at 12:00, if I try changing the calling frequency, it seems to change our EV. For example, for the 0.5 PSB, if the opponent always calls, then VB have EV 15 and bluffs - 5. EV per bet is then 10 instead of 9.0625. If opponent never calls except when he has a 2, then VB have EV 10 and bluffs -2.5, so EV per bet becomes 6,875. If our opponent never calls even if he has a 2, our VB is 10 and bluffs 10, so 10EV per bet.
I don't understand why the EV keeps changing when I change the calling frequencies. Thanks for the video!
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