Responding to River Bluffs
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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Love PIO vids, would like to see more in the future. Great audio quality btw.
23:00 AsK bluff.
You mention that AsK is a hand that has some showdown equity vs his range, which I would imagine implies that EV(check) > 0 (If this isn't true, why?). In situations like this, where, assuming we have more than enough air to fill our river bluffs, is it still correct to take a hand like AsK and bluff with it if EV bluff > EV check? Does our betting range as a whole gain more EV by prioritizing all of the hands that have EV(check)=0 and bluffing those and then realizing our showdown EV with the AsK's, or should we choose to put in money with combos that have the highest EV's, even if that means our checking range will contain more check/folds.
Additionally, how does IP's EV change when we start to bluff hands as high up in our range as AK? Does he just "raise the bar" to the point where AK is the bottom of his bluff catching range now? (Assuming he wants to make AsK type hands indifferent? It's not obvious to me how to know which combos get which EV's).
Great video overall.
@AsK Without card removal effects, we would always bluff the very bottom of our range. With card removal effects, our equations start to look slightly different.
AsK shrinks our opponent's calling ranges--he no longer has nut flushes. If he chooses to call a range that makes the nutlow indifferent, now AsK is positive due to blocker affects. And if he chooses to call a range that makes AsK indifferent that the nutlow is now -EV.
One more level of complication which we see in the video is that some bluffs block his folding ranges and not his calling ranges. Since we shrink his folding range, these bluffs are generally -EV (there are some exceptions when we have very strong ranges).
What we see in the video is that the slight value with AK (.05 pot) made checking is equal or less than the value bluffing, due to card removal AsK is a better bluff than the nutlow (at least until AsK has 15-20% equity as a checkback)
"Additionally, how does IP's EV change when we start to bluff hands as high up in our range as AK? Does he just "raise the bar" to the point where AK is the bottom of his bluff catching range now? (Assuming he wants to make AsK type hands indifferent? It's not obvious to me how to know which combos get which EV's)."
The unsatisfactory answer is that it depends. The number of combinations of each type of bluff, (nutblocker, nutlow, foldblocker) dictates strategy here. We can set up the equations here to see how strategy changes based on the percentages, this can give us some intuition into the strategies. In game the strategy choices are rough estimations from these toy games.
Hey Tyler
21:15 AK do you think its to much to bluff all our air here? Seems like our range would mostly be Ax suited, AK and KTs,K9s. I guess it is just player dependent on whether we should?
21:50 AK how often do you think is reasonable to slow play AK at about 140bb deep? 25%? At 100bb do you think we should still not 4bet our AK some of the time?
And I'm a bit confused, otr you are saying that is ok to bluff all our air and 3x? Even though we won't have enough value combos?
24:30 75 how do you know that if he folds all his Kx and some 4x that overbluffing here is profitable?
I would definitely like to see a second part of this series.
thanks
@21:15 AK it might be slightly too often. The average player here does not often call 66-TT on this board texture which makes all Ace high bluffs profitable.
@21:50 4-betting, flatting, heavily depends on our opponent range construction (tighter ranges we should 4-bet less). At 140, 25% sounds about right, but I usually try to base the slowplay off game flow as its more effective, if my opponent thinks I always 4-bet AK.
@75o Practice, using card runners ev to look at ranges in situations. With some assumptions about his flop and turn barrelling ranges, we can see that his average hand here is often weak (Kx, Qx), but better than 75o. If he folds his average hand (50th percentile hand), then a bluff is always profitable (he needs to call roughly 60% to make us indifferent).
Great video. More please!
I would definitely like to see a second part of this series. [2]
Very good sir
Great vid, definitely would want to see another one of these.
Great video, I would enjoy to see more of these!
Very interesting vidéo ! Thanks.
Great video!!!! I love these!
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