High Stakes PLO Hand Review (featuring hands vs Ilari FIN, Phisherman36 and Skjervay)
Posted by Hac Dang
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I find hand 3 very interesting, with both players making decisions based on blockers on every street. Do you really find the river call standard though? You're blocking two queens but you're not blocking all of them. You didn't mention whether you have reads on him 3-barrel bluffing often in this spot. It seems like that would also need to be part of the decision to call/fold.
In my mind, I did feel the call was as standard as a call can get in a spot like that (without the nuts vs a very polarized bet). Thats not to say he can't have QJ, but he's less likely to because I hold two of the queens.
Also, you're correct to say that knowing his 3 barrel bluffing tendencies is important, and I didn't specifically mention that in the video. Against strong regulars who have withstood the test of time (such as skerjvoy), I usually expect them to be able to bluff the river in that spot with proper frequency to make my calls indifferent. Combine that with the fact that I hold the relevant blockers, and I feel it makes my decision more of a call.
seems like he played it well if hed just bet ~4k on the river instead of pot, I rly dont like his preflopcall tho.
Also on low/midstakes it is almost certainly a fold against at least 95 out of 100regs Id guess, at least I havent seen such things,.
Nice video/good hands!
Because the villain bet big on every street, I didn't think he had J7.
At the time, I felt his river pot sized bet was a nuts/nothing situation. This is because with J7, he oftentimes will force out a 2nd place hand like a lower straight, and only get action from the same hand or better. He'd more likely bet an amount that I could call with a lower straight if he had J7 I think.
Thanks buddy!
You took the reasons right out of my mouth. You're correct when you say that we're more likely to barrel off vs guys that fast play early streets, or if we have relevant blockers. I believe those reasons are most important when deciding on the third shell.
If you're up against a guy who does a great job balancing everything and not folding top of range, you should probably just click 'sit out' because you can find an easier opponent. But, I suppose if you don't want to do that, you just have to fire the third shell with enough frequency to make his calls indifferent.
First off its 250bb HU plo, so illari is going to be raising and calling a 3b with 85-90% of hands (ie K872 with 7 high suit). That being said he is going to be peeling any K or Q on the flop, any flush draw and any bottom pair that could have some backdoor equity. So when the turn is a 9 he will continuing with a ton of these 1 pair hands with any sort of draw to realize his equity as he probably should. So often times when the river is as dry as it is, he will have 1 pair and if he does have 2 pair K9 is the top of his range and thats still obviously a bluff catcher. Its certainly possible that he can have K9 K3 K4 Q9 Q3 and Q4 but there are also tons of other hands that will never call and he will never have JT KQ KK QQ bc the turn brings 2 flush draws and u will be bet calling plenty of draws that would make shoving the turn the clear play with the top of his range on KQ9x.
As you stated in the beginning most of your 3bing range will be heavily weighted toward high card heavy hands, many of which will have lots of KQ KK QQ and JT combos (far more than his 85%+ opening range) in them and with a board this draw heavy all of these hands are a very clear value bet when he flats the turn. Even when u have AA, its unlikely thats going to be a hand u will bet the river with so you can take that part of your range from your bluffs. So when you do make it to the river with a hand like this, if you are going to have any bluffs at all, which you obviously should, it should be this one where (as you said) you have approx 0% chance of winning at showdown.
Finally, I did a little odds oracle and against your 12% 3bing range excluding all AA combos which i wouldnt include in your bluffing range, K9 is 49% vs your range. That being said I think that makes this a clear bluff as you obviously aren't bluffing 100% here and it only needs to work ~30% of the time to show a profit
Just an added thought, I don't know how Illari plays but I have seen people shove 2 pair +fd+gs on a board like this on the turn, so if thats something he would do, you can further eliminate a few more of his value hands.
It seems you make a very accurate assessment and a correct one. Also, a shove definitely would have worked in this case too. With your analysis, I admit a shove on the river was likely my best play.
Thanks very much for your comment!
In the Ilari hand: would you continue betting the turn if you had something like KKxx (no flushdraw) or AAxx with the nutflushdraw?
i'm in position, so what can really go wrong?
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