$320 WCOOP (1 of 4)
Posted by Grayson Ramage
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I'm just wondering if you have a general rule of thumb as for how many bb's effective you like to be before you prefer 2.5xing to min-raising when theres antes. The looseness of the table seemed to have been a driving factor in this first part.
Also when you are deep early you just prefer to 3x it...is it because you just like to thin the field / build bigger pot pre in general? I ask that because you'll see good players min raise their entire range 200+ bb deep in the sunday million trying to play as many hands as possible vs weaker opponents.
Early in tourneys I prefer 3x'ing since I am opening a much stronger range than I am post-ante, so I would prefer to build bigger pots with this stronger range of hands.
-1030-- are randoms really going to be xc turn? aren't they more likely to the checking to xf or xr? as such i feel a value bet (really a balancing bet should be really small since anything more than min is a wasted bet with a float) and wont it be better to check back rep something weaker or a missed fd? i have trouble finding people with an open/cbet range than a xc range on the turn if they're not a thinking player. additionally, (or showing congruent thought processes, i thought your KT hand @ min 35 showed very similar thought processes on why you like a check back as mine on this hand. are they that different? will that much worse call the turn in the former?
--what do you use to judge if you think a random/unknown will be bluffing river? different than cash early?
2742--KTs, you mention a few times in your videos its a good time to lead---basic: whats theory behind spots to lead? and what are you looking for to lead for value? when i hear coaches mention it it always seems in unbalanced spots w/ unbalanced ranges. (which i know has a lot of validity vs a weak field). Lastly, i thought you capped your own thought process and did not think the hand fully enough on the river. Given how hands played out and river is not great for your range, i understand the no river bet, but isn't this an awesome check-raise/jam (iirc sizes correctly) given how each hand looks? is he betting the river often with any value hands?
In the AJ hand, I think randoms can be calling the turn with a lot of worse Ax hands, since they are more likely than regs to be opening wider than they should pre-ante utg. On this turn I just don't see myself being behind very often and, depending on the river, I may go for 2 streets of value here. There is certainly some merit to checking back the turn to try to rep a missed FD on the river, or possibly pick off his river bluff, but I still think there is more merit to betting turn.
In the K10 hand at 35 min, I think I am much more likely to be behind than in the AJ hand. The reason I would prefer a check back with K10 is that so many more hands beat me, many of which would be checking the turn.
This is a pretty general question, but I base it on a number of factors. They include bet sizing, timing, board runout, and any applicable reads I might have. Sorry if this is pretty vague.
I lead with K10s in this spot since I prefer it to c/calling. I can get a lot of his Ax and low pairs to fold by leading, hands which may otherwise get to showdown. I also don't mind continuing to barrel on a lot of turns. Although I am not always balanced in spots like this, I do like leading strong hands like J10 as well.
Regarding the river, I don't really like c/raising since I am not confident enough that a random will hero fold here. Although he could conceivably be bluffing this river often (although based on him checking back KJ this doesn't seem to be the case), I think c/r bluffing here is just too high variance of a line in a tourney like this, when there will be lots of easy spots to pick up chips.
as far as my comments about the KT hand @ min 35 i was refering to your comments about not having to protect vs flush draws since hed likely barrel them himselves, and hed also be betting better again, both of which are most likely true as true for you in the AJ hand, making them equal with equal lines of reasoning in my mind. the only difference being checking the AJ to get a bet on the river from a bluff catch/ 2nd pair type hand, while in the KT were attempting to get to SD
Regarding the KT hand: I am confused in your thought process, it seems youre defining any spot were putting a decent portion of our chips in as a high variance spot.. when i really do think this is a very low variance spot. To me he is checking back KJ because it is the nut no pair and beats all your draws you have given up on.In my mind he's getting to the river <25% his Qx hands if not a much smaller portion.. hes not betting any pair other than Ax on river, most of which would have spades and would bet turn if not raise flop itself to realize his equity. Those that dont (and given hes a random we can give him standard thought processes) he has a hand like AJ/AT and will probably promptly give us a slowplay on the turn. The only hand i can see in his range calling is a hand like 98/aa. So when he bets the river himself, he really has an extremely weak range,. Given this we dont have to raise that much, 3500 or so, and he only has to fold 50% to show a profit, when id think hes folding much closer to 75-90%. or we can raise large and get folds from his entire range except 98/aa
Ok, I see your point regarding the the K10 hand, I just feel there is more reason to bet turn in the AJ hand for the reasons I stated above.
Again, I really like your thought process, I just slightly disagree with a few things. I don't think we can assume he's raising flop or betting turn with all of his nut FD's. Therefore I think Ax+ will be a pretty big portion of his river betting range. I'm just not confident enough that a random will bet/fold top pair in a spot where every draw missed to make this play. It is very possible that this play would work often enough to be profitable, but from my experience tournament randoms just don't like folding.
Thanks again for all your comments, they really made me reconsider my lines and think more deeply about them.
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