$1,000NL: BAD BEAT JACKPOT

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$1,000NL: BAD BEAT JACKPOT

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Gary Chappell

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$1,000NL: BAD BEAT JACKPOT

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Gary Chappell

POSTED May 26, 2022

Gary Chappell offers a look at a six table session on the higher stakes $5/$10 tables and the ability to go deeper on the analysis as they are regular and not zoom games.

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Carambalage 2 years, 9 months ago

Congrats on the jackpot! Would never forgive yourself if you folded the 70k river there and found out later in his shoes

17.50: Hard to model without node-locking because he misses the range cbet and that obviously means something in exploit land but even so I imagine this fold could be 2 digit BB loss. You stand by the decision?

Also, not sure if this is the place but any advice on best way to get decent money on GG from the UK under current affordability/KYC restrictions?

Gary Chappell 2 years, 9 months ago

I’m aware KQ was not a ‘gto’ approved fold, but I stand by it and trust my instincts that it was correct in this moment. Trusting my instincts and ‘reads’ has worked well for me and I don’t know why people would call a spot they have strong feelings they’re beat just because it’s ‘gto’.

You also have to add in the mindset factor and how it’s going to affect you making an incorrect call in a spot you felt strongly you were beat, and the knock-on effect that has to the rest of your session.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 9 months ago

I was thinking How Tilted is clownworld for sitting out and missing the jackpot? But then the distribution of cards would change as well.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 9 months ago

20:45 BTN open 2.5, hero 10bb, BB 23bb. Hero calls.
FLop XX. Turn XC like 40%. River XF 75%.

Ever consider XRAI on the turn with the double flush draw board? Given the .75 SPR on the river if you call, I don't think top pair does any folding.

Gary Chappell 2 years, 9 months ago

See my message above in reply to Carambalage’s post, and also my in game explanation - this explain why I folded.

If it was a bad fold then so be it, but I’m happy with the way I go about my decision making, and not simply being robotic and trying to play like a solver because it’s impossible, and opponent’s don’t play like solvers either. Using your ‘poker brain’ and intuition is important imo.

My only concern with folding this hand is whether opponent does this with KTs. But given cold 4B ranges, their range is massively skewed towards value on this board, especially given I’ve got the Qh.

I do agree I could’ve played it differently by XRAI or leading out turn myself

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 9 months ago

41min - Can you talk about what the bottom of calling range should look like vs these small 3bets? This is snowie's calling range vs this size. Would you go tighter or wider than this or use this range?

22+, ATo+, KJo+, QJo+, A2s+, K6s+ Q9s+, J8s+, 54s+ , 64s+

Gary Chappell 2 years, 9 months ago

That range looks reasonable to me, but it’s important to understand the rake. Low stakes high rake games I’d personally tighten up - I think this is well known now.

zache86 2 years, 9 months ago

Congratulations on that jackpot and very nice video as well !

I don't play on gg so i wanted to know your opinion on rake...when is it worth playing,at what stakes,etc. I heard rake is a madness on lower stakes but i would like to know a bit more.
Does the badbeat jackpot make a difference in terms of rake paid and the site giving back or is it too odd to consider the factor?
How about the fish buffet?

I agree with you on khqh hand...it's a marginal call at least with Qh...if we call and lose then it might affect a little bit our session mood although not too much with the jackpot :)

Gary Chappell 2 years, 9 months ago

Hi mate - I’d say anything less than 200nl don’t bother from a purely rake perspective. But I’m not a rake expert and gotta work out your hourly and winrate compared to other sites over a decent sample size.

zache86 2 years, 9 months ago

I play nl500 on other sites but i don't know if grinding reg tables on gg would get me rakeback enough to be considering playing on the site or not.
As far as i know there is no 500 rush so volume would be lower

emsterdad 2 years, 8 months ago

Congrats on that Jackpot. Really insane haha.And what a great video again, thank you!

I know GG has no HUD. At high stakes, you know most players probably well. Do you think new players playing low stakes should play on a site where a HUD is not allowed?

With the Q8 hand on the QQx 9 T board... would you call a raise on the river? A shove? I think at my levels you probably actually need to fold because it's just too often a better Q?

46:03 You say you often don't raise A4 or A6 on BTN. Is that because at these levels its just not profitable to do so?

49:32 Why do you fold 66 to a open raise from the Dutch man?

Gary Chappell 2 years, 8 months ago

HUD - upto individuals. Improving skills and not being reliant on HUD probably is better.

Q8 - probably under bluffed at low stakes

46:03 - not sure what you mean here. Is the time stamp wrong?

66 - don’t play many calls in CO unless recs in blinds.

emsterdad 2 years, 8 months ago

HUD - upto individuals. Improving skills and not being reliant on HUD
probably is better.

Really? That's a bit suprising to me. At lower stakes you play with so many unknowns, you do need to know what VPIP/PFr at least right? :) I must admit, I don't check often how often they c-bet etc. VPIP/PFR/3bet/F3b might be all the stats I really look at. I always thought that was bad and I should check out more. But here you say you probably should not be reliant on HUD :)

Q8 - probably under bluffed at low stakes

Yeah, maybe. Not sure. I have the idea in my head that people don't bluff that much on lower stakes because they all have an idea in their head that people never fold. So you might see a check raise, but then it ends on the turn if it's a bluff. Maybe a brave float on the flop, and bet turn.

46:03 - not sure what you mean here. Is the time stamp wrong?

Hi, hm, not sure, I believe I stamped it wrong indeed, sorry. The flop comes A64 rainbow and you have 77 I believe, or at least, the point you are making is that you can't really have two pair here. So my question is, don't you open hands (often) like A4 and A6 on the river?

66 - don’t play many calls in CO unless recs in blinds.

I bought From the ground up, and he explains the difference between polar and linear 3-betting. Do you apply a linear 3-betting style there? Or is that something you can't tell because that would give away too much about how you play?

Gary Chappell 2 years, 8 months ago

HUD - pros and cons. Yes useful in big pools, but I meant don’t be reliant on them as otherwise when you move to higher stakes games your game won’t be as sharp. Finding a balance is best between exploit and constructing your own sound strategy.

A64 - not sure what the spot is so can’t comment.

66 - most people play linear 3bet or fold in CO/MP/SB, particularly in games with no preflop rake.

emsterdad 2 years, 8 months ago

So many questions................. but the last one because you are very busy changing diapers, getting puke of your t-shirt and have no sleep........

How do you decide between folding and 3-betting in those linear 3-betting spots in CO/MP/SB?

Demondoink 2 years, 4 months ago

haha i like the honesty right at the end of the video when you are saying that you are under bluffing that 99 spot, so it was a good fold from your opponent.

congrats on the jackpot win!

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