Halloween Special: Solving Scary Spots w/ Math
Posted by Frankie Carson
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This was a very spooky line from your opponent with the river overbet! BB can river a bunch of QX here, so I really don't get why you would overbet here with JJ. Seems like the nut-worst bet sizing on the river? Even after seeing this line, I'm not convinced I would shove here vs this opponent. I'm not sure everyone is snap calling all of their value hands here vs the raise. You get good pot odds but its probably a very very under-bluffed raising range.
Also for the other worse combos that villain can have - you listed 4 AQs combos. If we assume that villain is calling AQs with BDFD on flop, he only had 3 combos on flop, then Qc blocks one on river, so there's only 2 left, AQss, AQhh. Even for these combos I would not call the river raise here unless I was convinced that my opponent was a complete sicko. To counter the good pot odds, it is still an extra 70bb to put into the put in a spot where I can't imagine almost anyone would consider a bluff shove.
Yea I think vs vast majority of opponents we don’t want to raise here ever. Agree the line is not good by our opponent. Knowing they have this JJ/TT/Qx I couldn’t help myself but shove. To your point maybe they do find folds to shove despite crazy good odds. If I shove a spot in the future and our opponent tank folds then I know they folded value and thus shouldn’t go for thin value in the future. But if they and up tossing in the remaining, super profitable to shove. I would like to test this in game :)
Yes your right, although I was assuming they call dd too only because that’s what I thought this opponent may do, not because I think its theoretically correct.
That's a nice idea, I will try to look for that in my games! Presumably that kind of read would also allow us to bluff jam a bunch instead?
Yes, we can then have some fun :)
Given the large turn raise size here, I don't think hands like JTcc can call. Villain can have T9cc for sure, but 54s some regs don't open full frequency from MP. AXcc also seems somewhat marginal to call vs turn raise given the large sizing, and perhaps the stronger ones like AQcc, AJcc, ATcc might check back flop here, especially given the 1/2 pot cbet size. I think once we discount a bunch of hands in the river bluffing region then it becomes very marginal to call river here and probably slightly -EV in my opinion.
So I disagree on a few fronts here. While your discussing a theoretically correct takeaway on turn/flop, most people will reflexively bet AQ/AJ BD on a perceived good board for them and will never, ever be folding a nut flush draw IP on turn. That’s a lot of combos. I would agree with you on middling non-SD FDs, but now that I have looked at the sim, I would argue that V’s get here with more bricked FD that theory would suggest. Last, you would not have this information, but this reg was of the higher AFq/VPIP kind. Finding merge defenses is paramount especially considering I am not sure how well I balance sets in my river check line to be honest. If we decide to pure fold this combo, we could be at risk of folding our range which is EV transferred in my opponents pocket.
Completely agree with the analysis on this one. Would need villain to rip in a considerable number of weak flush draws to make the call with AQ here profitable. The flush draws having considerable equity too means we need even more of the "bluff" combos in villain's range to make us indifferent to calling here.
Given that we shouldn't stack off the 1 pair hands, do you think then that villain's raise is a bit too thin too (despite getting a good result here)? Seems like calling flop and trying to fade a flush turn would be much higher EV for them. Then on turn jamming/calling will be higher EV than this flop shove?
Agree. I make a mistake and their shove looks brilliant, but I will for sure make the necessary adjustment here. I think shoving isolates to hands that crush IP, AQ happens to be at the bottom of my polarized x/r range here and I decided to call this time which I highlighted was a mistake. If I thought this through more, V’s raise has to be losing money vs a raising a smaller sizing or just calling as you outlined.
Nice way to solve hands. I started out hand writing combos before solvers. In game I do rough combo counting to figure out frequencies and have created a script I run through for tough spots. A condensed version of what you showed here.
9:00 I had him with a lot more value combos. I think once you check river he jams all of his flush combos which adds considerably to the overall count.
33:20 I guess I don't full understand the turn raise. Are you targeting weaker kx and qq, jj, tt?
39:20 I think a lot of players will jam ak adding 9 combos to their value range. They may have 1 or 2 combos of 66. I agree we can find enough bluffs to satisfy the odds we are given, but part of me thinks we are fairly low in our range and don't need to make this defend.
Thanks!
It's easy to get lost in the sea of information that we have at our finger tips in modern poker, but sometimes doing old school counting value/bluff combos can be just as effective as juggling deep theory, RNG’ing, unblockers/blockers, etc in a situation.
33.20. Because we have such a condensed range from SB, we want to go hyper polar based around the tip top of our range (sets). Because we go so large and we are representing such a strong range, IP must fold a lot including various Kx…aka our target.
39.20. I do think jamming AK is suicidal given our value range is representing sets and I would never expect any 1 pair to shove river. Most people will frame this spot, with 1 pair at least, that they are beating bluffs (makes up most our range at this point) and losing to stronger value. You would have to expect OP to call a hand like mine which I think most people would assume is not happening. Also, check out my comments from matlittle on this hand. Further thoughts there.
Frankie,
On the AQo hand at ~27:00 do you think that this spot is raise fold or do you think that you should have just called and not raised in this spot? Given that both players have infinite range here, what do you think the raise threshold is here given that we can get jammed on and have to fold strong top pair hands? Seems like position is worth a lot when ranges are symmetric and when we get jammed on, we give up positional advantage. Curious what you think about these situations.
Thank Frankie.
Well at the time raise/fold didn't enter my mind because I never expected shove, maybe more b50 click back raise but honestly I would expect majority of lines post b100 raise to be call/fold. I do think AQ is very low end value here that I did mix for low freq. AK+ or 2pair+ likely a better constructed value range.
I think this shove IP is really bad. Your generally isolating vs better and folding out worse (silly me made a mistake here). And like you said your giving up your positional advantage. Hate the shove. A smaller raise or calling would likely play much better.
Frankie,
Really enjoyed the video. Interesting format for analyzing these spots that was interesting and informative.
Thanks.
Thanks so much Sevens! Glad you found it useful.
Hey Frankie great video my guy thank you
Thanks True!
Facing this overbet on this river, agree asking the same question, what value? Like what value do we beat? Qx I guess, 99 1010 jj
Of course 7x can overbet here, 33, 66
Ahh nice he had jacks lol
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