A Session Under the Microscope
Posted by Frankie Carson
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Frankie,
Interesting hand at ~40:00 with ATo vs villains 33 8cTc5d Jh Kc facing over bet on flop and turn. I agree that villain, as played up to river, should probably finish the bluff by jamming river with this hand. Seems like villain probably has bottom of range with 33 and this is a bad runout for your calling range on flop and turn. I guess it might be slightly better to have the 3c, but this seems like a pretty good bluff candidate as played. Can you think of any worse hands that would make a better bluff candidate than this one?
Thanks Frankie.
Hey Sevens. Not really sans maybe 22. They are just beautifully unblocking folding region.
Frankie,
Well played hand at ~46:00 when you have T5c vs A9c on Jd8h9s turn 9h river 5d and raise turn and check back river. I think your analysis of how players play this river spot is pretty accurate which makes the check back probably a good decision. Curious if you think that having T8 would make a better bluff on river if you arrive there with that hand being that you block more calling hands? I realize that the same logic applies to ANY bluff on river that applied to the hand you had in terms of villain over calling this spot, just curious in theory.
Thanks Frankie.
Yes I do agree with you on T8 vs T5 as the 5 doesn’t interact with OP value range, while the 8 will be blocking value.
Frankie,
Enjoyed the video. Some cool and interesting hands as well as great analysis.
Thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it Sevens!
hey Frankie wicked video my guy thank you!
Thanks True!
A lot of interesting spots in this one. Your explanations were elite level.
14:00 you mention block and 66% pot bet, do we get massive overbets here with sets and straights?
21:00 the talk on different ways to have a capped range was interesting. I think a big thing I took from that hand was that on brick rivers it is too hard to bluff raise with a capped range even with good blockers. If you are more capped on flop and turn then you need a texture changing river card to bluff. Does that sound accurate?
Thanks Frankie!
I appreciate the nice comment Sound!
14: Theory wise no given the 1) balance of strong hands in IPs line given we are range checking turn, 2) difficult to get value from worse. Exploit wise, yes I would consider it with any unblock Ax strong value (KJ, TT, QT, etc). If I know V to be a weaker reg, they likely won’t have as much strong value as theory would suggest given OP a nut adv and green light for overbets.
21: Yes to an extent in this particular spot. My big message here was a raise value range with a capped range vs a polarized strategy is tiny, thus the bar for bluff shoving is high. You need to first ask, “will my opponent fold very strong hands like AK/KQ/AQ here?”. “Do they give credit for a KJ/KT played line?”. Declining turning our hand into a bluff is microscopic EV loss, but turning our hand into a bluff when are assumptions are wrong can be very big blunder.
After grinding a million hands online during covid until mid November or so 2022. It took me a really long time to accept or learn this concept. I still see people over bluffing all the time because they have low SDV. Having a texture changing card is so important. It just makes me laugh when I see someone barreling off a missed draw on a brick river. "I used to do that" I thought to myself.
In live poker, I forgot what video it was, but talks about how live players don't think in ranges very often. Referring to recs at least. They just try and bluff high cards pretty often. If you see a rec take a XC-XC-Donk line when there is a missed flush draw on the board like 962cc-3x-Qx It's mostly just some missed draw.
13:30 on AT5-Q being a range check turn spot reminds me of another spot KQ8-A turn. Where AQ does a lot of checking back! Have to be careful on these boards even with 2 pair hands. This was my hand where I barreled turn and got XR and solver is doing a lot of folding with AQ here. I also saw a video with Nacho where he barreled AQ on the same board as yours and folded to the turn XR. I think as humans we might over value 2 pair hands on these triple broadway boards.
They certainly feel weird as OR to pump the brakes. The key is to understand positions. You wouldn’t see this as often vs BTN since BTN range will be so much wider. While EP range will be stronger and more condensed to the broadway region.
20 min on this KJTss-Khh board you mentioned a lot of your strong hands are going to float bet the turn after OOP used a small flop bet, but slow play more often if OOP used a bigger flop cbet size. On wizard trips, straight, & boats are checking back 40% of the time on this turn. I think we should be less capped than we think. A lot of KX isn't too interesting in shoveling money in and facing a XR.
There was an old Gary Chapelle video that talked about when he is OOP and uses a bigger size on the flop he continues to barrel the turn more frequently because he already condensed IP range. When OOP uses a small cbet size, then IP has to float wide, so on the turn OOP will do a lot more checking because IP has so much air in their range that has to bluff. I think this is why we should not bet too many strong hands on the turn. Wizard Link is checking 58% of the time on the turn to the IP player after a B20 flop cbet size.
Yea your right. I wasn’t explaining that point well (more of a flop dynamic) and it is a small detail anyways so unnecessary tangent by me. The pairing of the K makes this board very unique as well causing lots of x’ing of nuts for IP which isn’t typical in block/c, x/_.
35:30 great sizing by the button on this T85cc-Jx board using something like b125-B125 more of a geo3 size SRP IP PFC. I think value hands like 88/55/97s/Q9s gain max value with these geo sizes. Puts OOP in a blender with entire range. Besides the nuts not a single hand really feels comfortable in this spot. What do we do with a hand like AcQx that floated the flop and now has double gutter or KdQd and even over pairs? Its just a really hard size to play against.
Do we ever want to donk shove this river? As you mentioned we have a lot of AQ or XcXc in our range here. AT you mentioned is a blunder to call the turn with because we have QT/T9 etc. I assume 2 pair maybe sets are made indifferent if we donk shove this river?
wizard link really fascinating actually. If we check and IP jams, which villain's hand is jamming high frequency. 55 for hero is made indifferent, JT mostly folding. We just call mostly 88, TT, Q9, AQ, flush, etc.
Where if we donk jam the river now IP has to start folding JJ, TT, Q9s, 97s etc. I do think we get a lot of folds here even in live cash if we take a XC-XC-Ai line.
Solve might be a little off as the main hand that was jamming is a hand like 7c6c, but also some bluffs from 9c9x.
I’m not a fan of relying on solver outputs when I think my opponent could be getting out of line.
The tricky hands you outlined, we really shouldn’t have very often given our opponents overbets flop, but as played they are simply folds as we are OP and have much stronger to defend. Only high cards we can defend turn are combo draws.
I dislike shove as we would need V to start folding sets or maybe even straights (both of which we block). Maybe pair with flush blocker would make more sense but I am not sure from a range perspective if donking river will make us money. I don’t like donking rivers unless I’m sure I understand the spot and how my opponent will react.
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