Thanks Sound!

So maybe it's nick picky, but going geometric should be expected. Running sim does confirm 1/3 is the lesser of the options. The rational here is you generally don't want to be getting value from A7 when OP plays a very balanced strategy x/ing many better Ax and some nutted hands. This is common to see this sequence of betting on A high boards in 3bet pots.

I think bigger picture is these small differences can be huge giveaways to when someone is playing unbalanced.

I think bigger picture is these small differences can be huge giveaways to when someone is playing unbalanced.

If value hands want to bet big here, and therefore the story villain is telling with the small bet doesn't make sense, would you suspect that people are trying to bluff here for cheap mostly? Could it also be that they have a middling hand like AJ or TT, that wants to limit the pot size and pre-empt a bigger river bet?

Whilst I agree with this small sizing being a read in general in 3bet pots, I think in this specific scenario it's also important to note that the limp and ISO preflop mean the pot size is way bigger than the usual 3bet pot, so it's probably a little less reliable a read here given that IP can shove for around pot on the river even with this small turn bet.

So yes def agree with first part.

I do disagree with second part. I think fundamentally it would be more natural and effective to bet larger turn to set up similar bet size or less river given you extra more value from FD/SD on turn while costing less to bluff these essentially <5% equity hands on blank rivers. Second reason to bet larger I listed above.

I disagree that villain needs to polarize on the turn, given the SPR and the fact that he is in position. This could be the only size that villain has on the turn and that's a fine simplification.

Ehh I hated this spot. There are many offsuite broadways in range here as most sims I've seen calling 3bet with offsuite broadway is anywhere from 1/6 to 1/5 of range. That's substantial.

I do agree overall I would have liked fold, more so to do with 2x overbet likely underbluffed. As I mentioned in video, with timebank happening multitabling sometimes I just can't decide if I want to exploit or not so I just attempt to play GTO. I can at least have some solace I did get the theory portion of this hand right :)

Yeh it's definitely a tough scenario. I had a look into it because I usually want to drastically overfold these spots and felt it was worth checking my logic. Like you say the offsuit broadway region is around 20% for SB preflop. On this specific board 9.5% of the SB's range is unpaired offsuit broadway, due to Jx pairs and QT straights.

If I restrict the sim to play pot/check on the turn probe node then PIO uses some unnatural bluffs like K7s, A7s, 5X, 44, 33, 22 etc to balance the betting range whilst betting at around 33% frequency.

If the sim plays block/pot/check on the turn probe node then PIO still uses these same unnatural hands whilst betting around 50% of the time.

In my opinion you'd have to think that villain is capable of going nuts sometimes to want to call down here in these types of scenarios as most players would probably miss these bluffing hands when making large turn/river bets.

Agreed

Thanks so much mx!

Duly noted Rask

Thank you very much Zi!

I believe this is a overbluffed line since Vs repping such a narrow value range. This time he has part of that narrow range, but many club/club, 56, A5 type combos. I just wouldn't every expect a shove with Jx. Maybe AJ, but mostly QQ, 45, A4.

Frankie Carson thx for your reply! I often find villian's mistakes, but I don't always know how to exploit them, can I only speculate on the opponent's sizing tells through a lot of hand experience?

So sometimes it's a matter of study your pools data and applying it to the situation. For more obscure lines, it's more trying to understand what a typical human is doing in the spot. How many value combos can they have? How many bluffs? Kind of triangulating a answer based off this and the sizing they are using. The later is more art then the former. This will come with experience.

Frankie Carson thx, it's helpful and detailed, I will try to do :D