No Gamble, No Future: Analyzing the Live Players
Posted by Frankie Carson
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Hey Frankie another great video man thanks!
Thanks a lot True!
17:22
Really great thought process throughout this hand. Putting ourselves in Patrick’s shoes, what hands will call a value bet here on the river we beat, and what are we doing vs a check raise.
Jx? Kq? 1010?
Well I think he's thinking there are a lot of random 1 pairs like Ax (9, 8, 6), TJ, 9T, 87, 67, etc. I think that's fair. But I wondered with AA no diamond, Gonzales will have flushes and may find bluffs (he's a good player) so which makes AA no diamond difficult to defend. Then given flush and K comes in (think KQ), it makes hands like Gonzales less appealing to call vs river bet. That's why I think ultimately checking river is best play, but it's close enough where you can justify value bet here.
This whole hand is just bonkers and I’m not really sure what to do here on the river
We 3 bet JTo pre flop okay, and persson leads into us and is going for 3 streets of value, we don’t really feel comfortable with the k on the river?
I mean, I’m never putting Persson on 73o here
Your last statement is exactly why I think this is call. Way to many random hands in his range to justify folding. Sometimes he will have some nasty K5 type hand and that will suck but from a EV perspective we should be well within the green here.
Frankie,
Enjoyed this video as well as the first part. The hand at the 6-minute mark where Antonius has QJo vs 66 and T5s, I agree that opponents can have Kx plus on turn but how often do you think these particular players check to Antonius on turn with 2 flush draws and straight draws out there (other than Persson)? Not necessarily a great reason to bet, but you can get value from weaker hands and draws. Persson can have some 2 pair plus hands, but he also has a lot of hands that can bluff here as well. Would have been more interesting if Persson followed through on river with large bet. Like your analysis, not sure what Gonsalves was betting for on flop. Another nice video Frankie.
Thanks.
Thanks Sevens, really appreciate it!
I think it's quite natural to check to the bettor especially live. It's a little dicey how much we can really get value from worse. We’re blocking Jx and FDs (with the Qh), 2 hands (sans AJ) we’d like to get value from. I don’t think low pairs continue turn very often like Gonsalves hand. I just think we start wondering deeper down a path we don’t need to go. Last, QJ is rarely a 3 street value hand. We can get a lot more controlled value by checking turn as we can comfortably'ish call probs river or then go for a 2nd street of value river when it’s more certain QJ has the hand on lock.
Frankie,
At ~16:00 Gonzales has 8h7h on board of Jh 9c 8d 6d Kd and Antonius has black aces, if Antonius is value betting this thin is the 8h7h a better raise than call? I think this is a fold, but of the two options to defend here what are your thoughts? What do you think the value raise threshold should be here as well as the value bet threshold for Antonius? Also, what is the worst hand Antonius calls check raise with?
Thanks Frankie.
I did think about that, glad you brought it up. If we have a sense that Antonius is value betting light, the EV a calling goes down, but doesn’t fully get transferred to the fold. I do think completely unblocking his med value and bluffing range makes this a decent candidate for x/r. It would be critical to know your opponent is finding these med value bet hands, otherwise x/r may be blundery and calling could become more attractive.
I think bottom of value range should be more like AK with Ad or AA with d.
Your last question gets quite complicated and nuanced to this particular spot. More information is needed like x/r sizing as well. To give you a roughed up answer, given.
Gonazles most likely value hands will be 9dxd and Jdxd. I’d start my analysis there.
Frankie,
The last hand is pretty wild. I agree with you that this should be a call vs Persson. Not sure if any part of his line makes much sense. Agree Ts not a great card being that some of his bluffs would be T9s with bdfd. Seeing what he shows up with, don't think the Ts matters all that much, like you said. Do you think that these types of lines from Persson is pretty heavily skewed towards bluffs, and his check raises more value? Also, how much does the structure of this game (most profit wins the bonus/bounty) affect the bluff frequency of Persson here?
In my analysis of recs, B/V is large here.
I think theoretically the structure of the game should be playing close to chipEV. But in reality, this will likely make people play more silly I’m sure.
14:30 AsAc on J98r-6dd-Kd
X-B-B line is mandatory. Would prefer a turn B125 delay cbet. On the river because Antonious only went 2/3 on the turn, I think river is a mandatory bet. Gonzales range is still very wide and mostly capped at 1 pair. A lot of 2 pair+ holdings would bet or XR earlier street. In one of Krab’s videos, he talks about not wasting mental energy on worrying about check raises or what opponent is going to do. Stick to your game plan and worry about the worse case scenario once it happens. Don’t waste so much energy planning ahead for something that doesn’t happen very often. Then taking a bit from Mobius poker recent podcast. Patrick suggests playing a game called Fold, Call, or raise. Always consider the raising option as other comments have suggested with Gonzales’ hand. He has better bluff catchers for calling, so lower bluff catchers he can play raise or fold.
I do disagree he's capped to 1 pair. K8, K9, KJ suited all within range. Also 9x and Jx dd well within range.
Don't know who Krab is, but he/she isn't wrong in terms of certain opponents we can just assume we rarely get x/r. However, this taken as a boiler plate statement for your overall river value betting strategy is a set up for blunders. Gonzales is a clever enough player to have a x/r range on river to make you re-think low end value. Not implying AA with d is a blunder per say, just a general statement.
Frankie Carson krab is one of your fellow rio coaches Kevin Rabichow I think it was this poker out loud video where he discusses saving some mental energy.
Frankie Carson 32min would you ever fold JT on the turn with Ten of spades being a negative blocker? If we think the donk betting range is JX, 8x, some draws like QT/T9 etc. Then holding the Ts is blocking bluffs. I feel like I want to fold JT on the turn. I would also fear a 3rd barrel of calling the turn just to fold the river seems like a waste of money. How can I change this mindset?
wizard link I used custom Ai to put 8.5bb in the pot given it was a 4k straddle and 172bb effective or straddles effective. Then I gave Eric his bet sizes for B50-B75 line. I gave Eric a very wide range preflop for all suited hands, 8Xo+ a bunch of 2 gap off suite connectors etc. Wizard didn't want to have a donking range given how wide the range is compared to CO's range. So I forced a 12% donking range using 25% of sets, 2 pair, any pair, all draws etc. I didn't mess with the turn barreling range. Oh, the response to the donk bet was 56% raising frequency, so I had to trim that down to 15% given what we see in practice. JT was pure raising the flop, so that is why I lowered the raising frequency. But we can see JT being made indifferent on the turn. This is why I am playing "scared" in these spots. Leveling myself 3 ways on the flop and facing a double barrel where I mainly want TPGK+ to continue so I am over folding a ton compared to theory. All those mixes that are theory calls I am mostly folding and only continuing the pure continues, which is QJ+, OESD, or FD. People redline the fuck out of me if they are aggressive. I just don't know how to improve my mindset because I have studied so much solver stuff and in practice everything is under bluffed, so I end up over folding all my bluff catchers.
Gives me a steady profit stream, but doesn't allow me to have any big wins or crush the game very often because I restrict myself so much from being creative. Luke has warned me about this several times over the last two years. I just haven't found the necessary changes.
@LukeJohnson is an excellent player and thinker...I would start by heeding his advice :)
I think in this hand your biggest mistake is interpreting solver results in order to see how to respond. B/V ratios can get so out of whack that solvers are no longer needed. I believe this is one of those spots. Blockers/unblockers only matter when hands become indifferent between options. Again, this is not one of them so don't obsess over blockers here.
If you struggle to make these calls because you fear 3rd barrel, you need to change your mindset from, "I don't want to call because I'm going to fold river" to "I am going to call turn because my opponent is overbluffing and plan on calling most rivers because it is very profitable to do so."
Breaking your habit requires you to understand that folding because your scared is losing a lot more money than making the correct play. It's the paradox of 'being conservative' that is costing you more money.
Yeah I used to be like that too until a friend show me some of his HH that some rec can be pretty crazy in terms of triple barreling! I think it's really important to set the mindset right so that we don't make marginal decision based on our fear of variance.
Hey Frankie, thanks for the vid! Enjoy watching it.
Another suggestion I have during watching this vid -- Since these are more of a live-poker related video -- could you make videos around the topic of preflop squeezing/overcall, multiway postflop and donking?
Because live poker is notorious for many multiway spots (both pre/post) and sometimes donking might be necessary when playing against rec/or in a multiway situation to generate more EV.
Since you made some great multiway/donking vids earlier (I really like those!) and you said in the vid that you play live occasionally, I think it would be great for you to make some relevant content using the pokerGo footage.
Thanks :D
Glad you enjoyed Mx and duly noted!
12:00 - could you explain a bit more why As is a good blocker here?
It's a good unblocker since OP will lead the other suites at higher freq given IP will cbet more of those kind (now OP unblocking these). It's a fine detail and def not one to over worry about. Just interesting to note. Maybe a nice way for a live player to 'rng'.
27:40 enjoy your analysis regarding Robl's call here OTT. The ability to understand rec player's tendency is so important in deep stack game.
And exactly like your said, I really wish river is a blank so that we get to see how is Robl's gameplan going to pan out but unfortunately the Th drops xD
32:58 you mentioned K is probably a good card for Gonsalves as he could have KJ but Persson has lot of random stuff.
When Persson choose to big bet OTT -- do you think he's only repping 8x+ (I rule out most of his AJ since I assume an aggro player like him will sqz more often than not when double straddle is going on), if so, KJ shouldn't matter here right?
I really liked this hand for a variety of reasons. Yes I would say mostly 8x+. I would never rule out Kx in Perssons range, he could even do a merge/value with K9 type. I don't think it should be large enough to factor into analysis to much nonetheless.
Yeah fair enough -- random Kx is quite possible too. Can't never narrow the aggro rec's range too much xD
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