Can I Be Your Hero Baby?
Posted by Frankie Carson
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Can I kiss away the pain
Poker pain never goes away : /
You explained your thought process really well.
First hand, to me I agree that he does not have any kind of nut advantage whatsoever. As such, a massive overbet like this is not supported. However, I think that very good hands are more equally distributed in your ranges and I feel that beyond whatever hands the river improves, you are both somewhat capped (this is based on average live 1-3, 2-5 and lower medium stakes tourney pools I am familiar with). As such, I think having a slight overbet size is not so bad.
I call all day with your hand.
17:40 you talked about how much our opponent checks turned flush draws. Doesn't solver like to check a lot of turned flush draws when ip and oop to avoid getting raised?
19:42 isn't a delay cbet here often an overbet?
32:00 so as opponent, do you feel the bottom of his value range should be limited to 2pr+ and the betsizing is pot+?
Thanks Frankie!
Hey Sound. Thanks!
17:40. I may not be understanding the question right, but I was saying in video our opponent likely bets his turn FDs. Also, a solver is not very useful for this hand given the oddity of the situation.
19:42. There are multiple options for turn. It can be a complicated spot. I agree we can and I do choose this option sometimes, but this time I choose otherwise.
32:00. I think it depends on sizing choice. Yes, I think 2pr is a nice bottom with large/pot size.
Frankie,
I enjoyed this one. Lots of interesting situations for bluff catching. I like you thought process on a lot of these hands. Nice video.
Thanks Frankie
Thanks a lot Sevens!
Yeah I knew you did say they bet it a lot. I phrased the question funny. In his shoes, would you continue to bet most of your flush draws?
I gotcha. Well not to avoid the question, but I would never lead flop as the limp check back range has large disadvantage on this board given > air and < strong kicker top/mid pairs.
Hey Frankie, happy new year!
This flop is actually better for IP than you would think. MP doesn't open 33 at full frequency, then doesn't call all of 77 or 55 to the 3bet. None of the suited connectors flop straights. So then OOP isn't as strong as you would think on this board, can't lead, and IP can cbet a reasonable frequency.
Having said that I think your line is great. The spades are supposed to be good to bluff-catch the river too (against a good opponent).
I would also assume that most humans might bet a bit smaller with a set here on the 4 straight river, yet put most of their bluffs into the 3/4 sizing because they want more fold equity, so then this big sizing may only rep a 9 for some players, and is probably way over bluffed. Would you agree with that or not?
Hey Matlittle, happy New Years to you too!
Yes agree nut advantage for OP is a mirage, but issue is they have nearly 3 to 1 adv with strong equity hands like 56, 67, 89, etc. This is why solvers are very disinterested in doing anything but pounding in med/large bets for mix freq.
Definitely agree with your analysis on 3/4 sizing.
Do you think this was an unforced blunder from your opponent? Or was it potentially some kind of exploit expecting you to call down too light? I would assume the former given how much EV you lose at equilibrium with this play.
So I think it's more of a exploit gone wrong. Value betting thinner then the GTO value line at mid stakes and lower is a nice adjustment, I just think for the reasons I laid out that it's far to out of line here.
Thanks Frankie, like the way you break down ranges in the 42o hand!
Glad you liked it mx! Those call downs are always fun :)
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