In equilibrium, against PioSolver preflop ranges, 77 with diamonds raises 50% of the time and always raise calls. Basically you decide what to do already when you raise, that's why it's important not to raise 100% of these combos not to be exploited. Also in practice 4betting ranges and cbetting strategies might be different, so there's also this to keep in mind.
It's possible to use also a shove raise size on such board texture. Pocket pairs without a diamond which are an underpair to the 9 cannot raise, as they cannot profitably raise/call and the EV of the shove is way worse than ev of the call (and even worse than the ev of the small raise to fold).
Great 4bet pot study session Francesco! I personally enjoy the review format with your detailed analysis. I do enjoy PIO vids too but it's sometimes just more refreshing and imo helps train your non-visual range perception thereby more closely reflecting in-game thinking.
2nd hand - When you assign his bluffing range I think adding AQo is ambitios unless you exactly know who are you playing against. Why deviate from GTO ranges if you dont have decent information. Nevertheless calling 99 is probably fine - since he might bluff those AQ-AJs but pretty marginal call as his value is pretty much any Kx+; which is enough combos
AQo is a 50% frequency cold4bet BB vs SB vs CO (monker solver ranges with 5% rake cap 3€), so it's part of the GTO range. It's also a hand that isn't afraid of the shortstacker jamming, as it can comfortably cold4/call against the original raiser and cold4/fold against my shove. It's possible that certain players migh even pure cold4bet AQ here as it's not a standard dynamic, but I didn't make this assumption, I just think BB is going to have a certain frequency of these combos.
Hand 2: So i believe you should be adding all AQo into BB range here (readless) considering how he wont be bluffing this spot because of the shorty, your range for 5 betting here has to be very strong so i find people will just 4 bet all hands he is willing to stack vs the shorty and he has pretty easy decisions vs you with most of his range if you decide to 5 bet. Your range is still a relatively standard SB 3 bet range.
and also the shorty mini raised opened and that range in general is very wide. So i would even advocate adding KQs and maybe some KJs but obvisouly this is readless
The point i really don't understand about the hand is on flop you advocate maybe raising and turning 99 into a bluff here. Sorry, but for lack of a better word this just seems crazy, are you implying that I.P will fold overpairs on certain turns with an SPR less than 1? or are you just trying to protect EQ vs AK? Wouldn't any sort of broadway hand be much better bluffs here because they remove 6 combo's of overpairs.
I also dont understand why you say you would fold the flop if we wasnt showing up with AQo here, even Vs a range of AK/TT+ he has a 16/27 ratio of bluffs to value and we only need 15% EQ to call. Now yes we dont realize all of the EQ we have Vs AK but i still can't see folding being reasonable. We still have 10% EQ vs the top portion can't we make up the other 5% in implied odds especialy with the SPR being so low??
I also disagree with I.P using a small range bet here:
~ Because I.P has no flopped pairs/ no straight draws and only 2 combos of flushdraws we are going to have a Significant range advantage on a whole load of runouts and its going to be very hard for AK/AQ to realise it's equity??
~ the JJ/QQ portion of his range really want to remove the negative effect of all the multiple turn and river run outs. And he is also left ina spot where he is going to have 1.5x pot jam turns that are good for our range or allow us to realize a bunch of equity
If you could clear up my confusion about the hand i would be grateful also sorry for the wall of text.
Big fan of your videos i always learn something from watching them, thank you.
Hi, I see different cold4bet strategies being implemented here, as it's a fairly exploitative dynamic (we're 3betting a recreational player with a short stack), some player can adjust, but at 200 NL most people would stick to "default ranges" and I try not to level myself into expecting them to be able to read table dynamics. So readless I tend to assume around 50% AQoff, might be 50%, 100% or even 0% (against total nits).
99 is not a pure bluff when you raise, but becomes a decent semibluff on turns that improve our equity, it folds out some overcards and can x/fold on some runouts. It's a counterintuitive play that solvers love to do time to time.
Consider what would be the major disaster in this dynamic? Calling 100% of medium PPs that you 3betted preflop and finding yourself in tough spots postflop. Solvers randomize every street with marginal hands, not to end up always in uncomfortable scenarios in bloated pots (f.ex bluffcatching against a range full of overpairs). So 99, 88 in particular here will randomize call/folds preflop, call/fold/raises on the flop (we have some traps, so we're not towards the top of our range), and once you raise you face a marginal decision on the turn (although against some players it's a very easy exploitative decision).
It's possible to have 2 sizings, it's not easy to balance the shove here without either being imbalanced towards JJ QQ or overbluffing with overcards. In general with the multiple sizings when you bet big you either want to generate overfolds or overcalls, you don't lose much theoreitcal EV by playing a single size; I recommend to have a checking range though, that's way more relevant than sizing in these scenarios. AT 200 NL it's still common to see range betting strategies on such textures (which I don't recommend), which can struggle against flop raises (therefore this play with medium pairs gains some extra exploitative EV).
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Great Vid Francesco! With the 77 what's the rough GTO mix to call off a jam otf, like 20%?
In equilibrium, against PioSolver preflop ranges, 77 with diamonds raises 50% of the time and always raise calls. Basically you decide what to do already when you raise, that's why it's important not to raise 100% of these combos not to be exploited. Also in practice 4betting ranges and cbetting strategies might be different, so there's also this to keep in mind.
It's possible to use also a shove raise size on such board texture. Pocket pairs without a diamond which are an underpair to the 9 cannot raise, as they cannot profitably raise/call and the EV of the shove is way worse than ev of the call (and even worse than the ev of the small raise to fold).
Great 4bet pot study session Francesco! I personally enjoy the review format with your detailed analysis. I do enjoy PIO vids too but it's sometimes just more refreshing and imo helps train your non-visual range perception thereby more closely reflecting in-game thinking.
2nd hand - When you assign his bluffing range I think adding AQo is ambitios unless you exactly know who are you playing against. Why deviate from GTO ranges if you dont have decent information. Nevertheless calling 99 is probably fine - since he might bluff those AQ-AJs but pretty marginal call as his value is pretty much any Kx+; which is enough combos
AQo is a 50% frequency cold4bet BB vs SB vs CO (monker solver ranges with 5% rake cap 3€), so it's part of the GTO range. It's also a hand that isn't afraid of the shortstacker jamming, as it can comfortably cold4/call against the original raiser and cold4/fold against my shove. It's possible that certain players migh even pure cold4bet AQ here as it's not a standard dynamic, but I didn't make this assumption, I just think BB is going to have a certain frequency of these combos.
Fair enough, I suppose different ranges and sizings will dictacte whats happening. Treshold anyway
Hey francesco great video.
Hand 2: So i believe you should be adding all AQo into BB range here (readless) considering how he wont be bluffing this spot because of the shorty, your range for 5 betting here has to be very strong so i find people will just 4 bet all hands he is willing to stack vs the shorty and he has pretty easy decisions vs you with most of his range if you decide to 5 bet. Your range is still a relatively standard SB 3 bet range.
and also the shorty mini raised opened and that range in general is very wide. So i would even advocate adding KQs and maybe some KJs but obvisouly this is readless
The point i really don't understand about the hand is on flop you advocate maybe raising and turning 99 into a bluff here. Sorry, but for lack of a better word this just seems crazy, are you implying that I.P will fold overpairs on certain turns with an SPR less than 1? or are you just trying to protect EQ vs AK? Wouldn't any sort of broadway hand be much better bluffs here because they remove 6 combo's of overpairs.
I also dont understand why you say you would fold the flop if we wasnt showing up with AQo here, even Vs a range of AK/TT+ he has a 16/27 ratio of bluffs to value and we only need 15% EQ to call. Now yes we dont realize all of the EQ we have Vs AK but i still can't see folding being reasonable. We still have 10% EQ vs the top portion can't we make up the other 5% in implied odds especialy with the SPR being so low??
I also disagree with I.P using a small range bet here:
~ Because I.P has no flopped pairs/ no straight draws and only 2 combos of flushdraws we are going to have a Significant range advantage on a whole load of runouts and its going to be very hard for AK/AQ to realise it's equity??
~ the JJ/QQ portion of his range really want to remove the negative effect of all the multiple turn and river run outs. And he is also left ina spot where he is going to have 1.5x pot jam turns that are good for our range or allow us to realize a bunch of equity
If you could clear up my confusion about the hand i would be grateful also sorry for the wall of text.
Big fan of your videos i always learn something from watching them, thank you.
Hi, I see different cold4bet strategies being implemented here, as it's a fairly exploitative dynamic (we're 3betting a recreational player with a short stack), some player can adjust, but at 200 NL most people would stick to "default ranges" and I try not to level myself into expecting them to be able to read table dynamics. So readless I tend to assume around 50% AQoff, might be 50%, 100% or even 0% (against total nits).
99 is not a pure bluff when you raise, but becomes a decent semibluff on turns that improve our equity, it folds out some overcards and can x/fold on some runouts. It's a counterintuitive play that solvers love to do time to time.
Consider what would be the major disaster in this dynamic? Calling 100% of medium PPs that you 3betted preflop and finding yourself in tough spots postflop. Solvers randomize every street with marginal hands, not to end up always in uncomfortable scenarios in bloated pots (f.ex bluffcatching against a range full of overpairs). So 99, 88 in particular here will randomize call/folds preflop, call/fold/raises on the flop (we have some traps, so we're not towards the top of our range), and once you raise you face a marginal decision on the turn (although against some players it's a very easy exploitative decision).
It's possible to have 2 sizings, it's not easy to balance the shove here without either being imbalanced towards JJ QQ or overbluffing with overcards. In general with the multiple sizings when you bet big you either want to generate overfolds or overcalls, you don't lose much theoreitcal EV by playing a single size; I recommend to have a checking range though, that's way more relevant than sizing in these scenarios. AT 200 NL it's still common to see range betting strategies on such textures (which I don't recommend), which can struggle against flop raises (therefore this play with medium pairs gains some extra exploitative EV).
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