It means that solvers convinced people that folding bluffcatchers or bet-folding value hands is a mortal sin, therefore most regulars tend to exploit capped ranges by betting/raising very thin and underbluffing, unless players default to overfolding in specifc scenarios.
Dont you think having the Qc is actually good ? Not having the Qc allows vilains to be more on AQs KQs and a lot of Qxcc for the rec s range. I think when you dont have Qc it condenses vilain s range more on set. than FD and QQc < QQ 3 ways.
36:30 What do you think of minraising turn and shoving river ? Imo i dont think a ton of vilains are capable of folding on the turn. I d really like to bluff those spots
You concentrate your work in this vid on the practical play . I have a simple question on mental part. How do you react when you re bluff dont work; and you feel that was a bad idea. And if you re not reacting well; how do you manage your emotions ?
1) In mway it's very important to bloat the pots only on hands that can keep the aggression on most runouts. If you don't have a club it's going to be extremely tough to proceed on a club turn. It's true you block AQcc and KQcc, but those hands stills have a huge amount of equity against QQ no club and by having a club you have better equity against two combined ranges (it's extremely important in mway). You can check even when you run HU simulations that overpairs with FD blockers have more equity than the ones without it: in mway it means you can bet more with those and check with the others.
2) Do you mean the 99 hand? I'm not a huge fan of minraises on the turn there, because it would represent a hugely polarized range that doesn't need protection and I don't like overpolarizing myself in such scenarios.
I just try to understand whether I ran in my opponent's top end of the range (nothing I can do), if I made a theoretically reasonable play or it was a mistake by my part or if my opponent just doesn't like to fold and decided to make some embarassing call to prove a point. I will adjust according to the appropriate case.
Ciao Francesco, sticazzi, gran bel video mi piace proprio tanto come spieghi il tuo thinking process, grande. Se non ti dispiace, posto alcune domande probabilmente stupide visto che gioco NL25 e NL50.
@ 13:40 with AsQd
I like your whole thinking process and it highlighted how far behind I am, ty for that.
OTR you catched the card you wanted to see basically, but don’t you think there’s a problem here, being OOP?
A 42/10 it’s very likely to check back OTR where every draws improved and beat his nutted hands. So I think he would check at very very high frequency resulting you losing the hand. You basically relying on him bet which is not guaranteed, imo, not even close.
What about an overbet OTR? This will put the maximum pressure on the villain nutted hands.
Yes, x/r turn is perceveid to be much stronger than an overbet lead, but again, imo, Villain don’t bet as often to allow us to check raise often
Now that I’ve seen the showdown, I’m more inclined to think that a lead my work even best. He wouldn’t raise his crappy AJ and he wouldn’t shove his AA,KK hands, so we would lose even more on our bluff.
What do you think?
@ 18 and @ 28
Just for the sake of curiosity, have these tables a fish in there? I recognize all of the names when I railed higher games.
Also your stats show that they are regs, but there may be some fishy reg out there
I thought about overbetting, but I wasn't sure about the sizing. Probably the only one that makes sense is to go all in , as I expect to get called by 2p+ with a 150% pot bet. Him checking behind is not a disaster, once in a blue moon it's possible he decided to raise something like ATs to check the river (very unlikely, but you never know). So I think if we decide to bluff we're going to put all the money in anyway, overbetting works only if we expect villain to always check hands which are worse than a straight (I expect a straight to mostly call).
Also being a 42/10 only gives us ideas of how he plays preflop. There are some recreational players that have similar stats, 3bet AK and QQ+, but will always 3barrel postflop. We don't know how much they bluff or thinvaluebet just from the preflop stats.
Yes, they are "regs", most of them are very exploitable. In general tables tend to run for a bit to avoid the 12 hands penalty, then the weakest regs will quit and the table will break.
Feels like AQo is suboptimal play, relying on river bluff and not having much of implied odds. Don't think you will agree with me, but even in theory your hand likely isn't calling turn raise at all. Your betting range so strong that bet calling AQ on the turn is pretty much saying: I'll make it + EV on the later street trying to get him off 2 pairs or check-down for enough EV.
+This line as we witness from recs is pretty underbluffed
So I will agree with forCarlotta , and overbetting river seems like unnessisiarly high variance possible making ton of money, possible burning money play. Cheers
Jeff_ I expect the player to never show up with QT and to get paid off by 2p and sets if I lead for 30-40% pot on the rivered straight. Very rarely we might chop against AQ or even be against AT.
Few years ago playing 24/18 was considered playing "high variance", where did all the super nits end up playing now? Poker is always about finding even marginal +Ev opportunities, sometimes you will make mistakes, but it's a totally flawed approach to go for "low variance", unless you just plan to play for a little bit and quit as soon as competition will toughen up.
About high variance - you are correct, if playing low variance poker you won't go far and get destroyed by good opponents. Is this spot high variance one or have to be? Answer is No. Personally to me seems like you played wrong way and afterwards convinced yourself that it is high EV line and good play.
Again disagree with you, something like 24/18 nits yeah. But solvers showed that playing tight and nitty preflop is the way to go. Before we had those 30/19-20 guys which nowadays playing 25/20 or so. Because it is clearly much more profitable with improving players( mid-high stakes crushers from stars will approve).
No point to reply to this comment or continue disscussion, I wanted to point out for viewers(newcomers) so they should take that play with grain of salt
I didn't say 24/18 are nits, but back then nits considered playing 24/18 or so "high variance" or too loose.
A play might or might not work against a certain player, you just take notes and adjust accordingly. Even in the video I said that against this player it's reccommended not to run big bluffs, but you can't know it until you (or somebody else at the table) try it; it's actually a super profitable play against most recreationals, as they tend to be quite scared of rivered flushes.
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Could you go into some more detail about your statement “…the meta is trending towards being more value heavy,” please. What’s this based on? Thanks.
It means that solvers convinced people that folding bluffcatchers or bet-folding value hands is a mortal sin, therefore most regulars tend to exploit capped ranges by betting/raising very thin and underbluffing, unless players default to overfolding in specifc scenarios.
Excellent video MR. Fransceco !
Some questions here ;
1rst Hand,
Dont you think having the Qc is actually good ? Not having the Qc allows vilains to be more on AQs KQs and a lot of Qxcc for the rec s range. I think when you dont have Qc it condenses vilain s range more on set. than FD and QQc < QQ 3 ways.
36:30 What do you think of minraising turn and shoving river ? Imo i dont think a ton of vilains are capable of folding on the turn. I d really like to bluff those spots
You concentrate your work in this vid on the practical play . I have a simple question on mental part. How do you react when you re bluff dont work; and you feel that was a bad idea. And if you re not reacting well; how do you manage your emotions ?
Gl at table and in your life
Yolan
1) In mway it's very important to bloat the pots only on hands that can keep the aggression on most runouts. If you don't have a club it's going to be extremely tough to proceed on a club turn. It's true you block AQcc and KQcc, but those hands stills have a huge amount of equity against QQ no club and by having a club you have better equity against two combined ranges (it's extremely important in mway). You can check even when you run HU simulations that overpairs with FD blockers have more equity than the ones without it: in mway it means you can bet more with those and check with the others.
2) Do you mean the 99 hand? I'm not a huge fan of minraises on the turn there, because it would represent a hugely polarized range that doesn't need protection and I don't like overpolarizing myself in such scenarios.
I just try to understand whether I ran in my opponent's top end of the range (nothing I can do), if I made a theoretically reasonable play or it was a mistake by my part or if my opponent just doesn't like to fold and decided to make some embarassing call to prove a point. I will adjust according to the appropriate case.
Ciao Francesco, sticazzi, gran bel video mi piace proprio tanto come spieghi il tuo thinking process, grande. Se non ti dispiace, posto alcune domande probabilmente stupide visto che gioco NL25 e NL50.
@ 13:40 with AsQd
I like your whole thinking process and it highlighted how far behind I am, ty for that.
OTR you catched the card you wanted to see basically, but don’t you think there’s a problem here, being OOP?
A 42/10 it’s very likely to check back OTR where every draws improved and beat his nutted hands. So I think he would check at very very high frequency resulting you losing the hand. You basically relying on him bet which is not guaranteed, imo, not even close.
What about an overbet OTR? This will put the maximum pressure on the villain nutted hands.
Yes, x/r turn is perceveid to be much stronger than an overbet lead, but again, imo, Villain don’t bet as often to allow us to check raise often
Now that I’ve seen the showdown, I’m more inclined to think that a lead my work even best. He wouldn’t raise his crappy AJ and he wouldn’t shove his AA,KK hands, so we would lose even more on our bluff.
What do you think?
@ 18 and @ 28
Just for the sake of curiosity, have these tables a fish in there? I recognize all of the names when I railed higher games.
Also your stats show that they are regs, but there may be some fishy reg out there
I thought about overbetting, but I wasn't sure about the sizing. Probably the only one that makes sense is to go all in , as I expect to get called by 2p+ with a 150% pot bet. Him checking behind is not a disaster, once in a blue moon it's possible he decided to raise something like ATs to check the river (very unlikely, but you never know). So I think if we decide to bluff we're going to put all the money in anyway, overbetting works only if we expect villain to always check hands which are worse than a straight (I expect a straight to mostly call).
Also being a 42/10 only gives us ideas of how he plays preflop. There are some recreational players that have similar stats, 3bet AK and QQ+, but will always 3barrel postflop. We don't know how much they bluff or thinvaluebet just from the preflop stats.
Yes, they are "regs", most of them are very exploitable. In general tables tend to run for a bit to avoid the 12 hands penalty, then the weakest regs will quit and the table will break.
Feels like AQo is suboptimal play, relying on river bluff and not having much of implied odds. Don't think you will agree with me, but even in theory your hand likely isn't calling turn raise at all. Your betting range so strong that bet calling AQ on the turn is pretty much saying: I'll make it + EV on the later street trying to get him off 2 pairs or check-down for enough EV.
+This line as we witness from recs is pretty underbluffed
So I will agree with forCarlotta , and overbetting river seems like unnessisiarly high variance possible making ton of money, possible burning money play. Cheers
Jeff_ I expect the player to never show up with QT and to get paid off by 2p and sets if I lead for 30-40% pot on the rivered straight. Very rarely we might chop against AQ or even be against AT.
Few years ago playing 24/18 was considered playing "high variance", where did all the super nits end up playing now? Poker is always about finding even marginal +Ev opportunities, sometimes you will make mistakes, but it's a totally flawed approach to go for "low variance", unless you just plan to play for a little bit and quit as soon as competition will toughen up.
About high variance - you are correct, if playing low variance poker you won't go far and get destroyed by good opponents. Is this spot high variance one or have to be? Answer is No. Personally to me seems like you played wrong way and afterwards convinced yourself that it is high EV line and good play.
Again disagree with you, something like 24/18 nits yeah. But solvers showed that playing tight and nitty preflop is the way to go. Before we had those 30/19-20 guys which nowadays playing 25/20 or so. Because it is clearly much more profitable with improving players( mid-high stakes crushers from stars will approve).
No point to reply to this comment or continue disscussion, I wanted to point out for viewers(newcomers) so they should take that play with grain of salt
I didn't say 24/18 are nits, but back then nits considered playing 24/18 or so "high variance" or too loose.
A play might or might not work against a certain player, you just take notes and adjust accordingly. Even in the video I said that against this player it's reccommended not to run big bluffs, but you can't know it until you (or somebody else at the table) try it; it's actually a super profitable play against most recreationals, as they tend to be quite scared of rivered flushes.
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