In the first sim when you look at how flush draw blockers affect river bluffing: are you sure you don't have river buckets set to small in the simulation? In the viewer all combos are grey with no spades highlighted. If that's the case, the results aren't meaningful re that question since FD blockers "don't exist" in the sim on the river.
ok, slightly embarrassing to have a methodological error slip into a video on methodology :/ ...yes, you're correct. I reran sim with correct settings and fwiw the essential conclusion stands - straight draws mostly block, flush draws mostly bet larger - although the hand class [all unpaired flush draws] does mix more evenly than in the video sim, the most relevant factors that skew the mix one way or another being the presence/absence of busted straight draw blockers and the rank of the flush draw.
It seems that the unpaired hands you look into bet quite often. However, our total river betting freq is still only 48%, so it's not a spot where we fire away super wide overall. Does this mean that we mostly use the unpaired combos as bluffs and lean towards giving up/realizing the small SDV when we hold a PP or a pair to the board, or do weak combos that have a pair bluff often as well?
firstly, this is exactly why viewers should ask questions, sometimes they can lead to interesting discoveries not mentioned in the original video. secondly, heres the answer...:p
y obv most of our bluffs will be unpaired, and the pocket pair region (22-77) obv excluding 55, has very little interest in bluffing, and 99-TT chks as a pure strategy, all unsurprisingly since the pocket pairs both have SDV and block potential IP missed straight draws. There is one type of hand, though, which both has SDV and some reasonable interest in betting, and thats 5x, which bets 29% of the time, a figure which sharply increases if you restrict to A5 combos (42%), even more dramatically increases to 88% with K5, AK5 bets as a pure strategy. I have what I think is a pretty good guess at why this is happening, but I'd suggest whoever ends up reading this takes a moment to think about it themselves.
OK, so there are two reasons, blockers and comparative EVs. vs full pot IP folds some Jx and is going to defend mostly linearly, also with some regard to blocking value/unblocking bluffs, so AJ is good bc its the best Jx, but KJ is awesome bc its a) the next best Jx, b) it unblocks all busted st draws, c) it blocks OOP value (OOP bets all KK), so since having a king is so great for IP when bluff catching, its also pretty great for OOP when bluffing. equally, 5x combos if played as chk are basically gonna hope IP chks, and if he bets, they're gonna either be a pretty low EV bluff catch or an, obv, 0EV, chkfold, meaning their EV when chkd is mainly found in the chk/chk line, and also meaning that EV even as a whole isn't super high - however, if turned into a bluff and properly balanced, suddenly they can flip that situation and put IP in a spot where he has to decide whether or not to bluff catch with a bunch of near 0EV hands and as a result capture a much larger % of the pot. I reran a river sim (with large nodes :p) and found that OOP captures somewhere around 0.5-1% more of the pot with an equilibrium strat involving the frequencies above than if node locked into chking every hand from that region. Not gonna buy you a yacht overnight, of course, but every little edge adds up.
Thanks for the answer. Bluffing AK5x/KQ5x type of hands makes sense. I guess you could put it that the prime blockers add EV to betting more than the bottom pair helps checking, which is basically what you said anyway.
How far do we take it though? Are hands like AK33/AQ77/AKQ8/KQ87 interested in bluffing as well, or does having slightly higher SDV and/or blocking draws make these hands lean towards checking? (though these combos might not bet the turn a lot I guess)
of those four the only hand id think would be even slightly interested in bluffing is AK33, others have combination of poor blockers and greater showdown than 5x. AK33, given lack of showdown + better blockers + (somewhat related) fact that it infrequently bets turn and only when it contains a fd that IP often bets flop with, lessening impact of having busted draw cards in hand to unblock IP folds, pots as a pure strat in the flawed sim I used in vid (i discarded the other one after analysis, but assume pure strat in a sim with similar results to the one I ran after your question won't shift that easily).
How powerful of a computer are you using for these sims, Richard? I’m trying to figure out if it’s a reasonable investment to get Monker and a CPU powerful enough to enable it to run multiway, deep live poker type spots on a mid-stakes live PLO player budget.
Hey, I currently use a rented server, 256gb RAM, 2x10 Core, and it can run MW sims but >HU + >100bb does tend to blow up the tree size, so I'd struggle, for example, to give each player multiple betsize options, at least without some amount of intelligent trimming/tree design. I think I read somewhere that buying a comparable machine would cost around $5k, which amounts to roughly 18mths rental.
Loading 10 Comments...
In the first sim when you look at how flush draw blockers affect river bluffing: are you sure you don't have river buckets set to small in the simulation? In the viewer all combos are grey with no spades highlighted. If that's the case, the results aren't meaningful re that question since FD blockers "don't exist" in the sim on the river.
ok, slightly embarrassing to have a methodological error slip into a video on methodology :/ ...yes, you're correct. I reran sim with correct settings and fwiw the essential conclusion stands - straight draws mostly block, flush draws mostly bet larger - although the hand class [all unpaired flush draws] does mix more evenly than in the video sim, the most relevant factors that skew the mix one way or another being the presence/absence of busted straight draw blockers and the rank of the flush draw.
Thanks for the clarification!
It seems that the unpaired hands you look into bet quite often. However, our total river betting freq is still only 48%, so it's not a spot where we fire away super wide overall. Does this mean that we mostly use the unpaired combos as bluffs and lean towards giving up/realizing the small SDV when we hold a PP or a pair to the board, or do weak combos that have a pair bluff often as well?
firstly, this is exactly why viewers should ask questions, sometimes they can lead to interesting discoveries not mentioned in the original video. secondly, heres the answer...:p
y obv most of our bluffs will be unpaired, and the pocket pair region (22-77) obv excluding 55, has very little interest in bluffing, and 99-TT chks as a pure strategy, all unsurprisingly since the pocket pairs both have SDV and block potential IP missed straight draws. There is one type of hand, though, which both has SDV and some reasonable interest in betting, and thats 5x, which bets 29% of the time, a figure which sharply increases if you restrict to A5 combos (42%), even more dramatically increases to 88% with K5, AK5 bets as a pure strategy. I have what I think is a pretty good guess at why this is happening, but I'd suggest whoever ends up reading this takes a moment to think about it themselves.
OK, so there are two reasons, blockers and comparative EVs. vs full pot IP folds some Jx and is going to defend mostly linearly, also with some regard to blocking value/unblocking bluffs, so AJ is good bc its the best Jx, but KJ is awesome bc its a) the next best Jx, b) it unblocks all busted st draws, c) it blocks OOP value (OOP bets all KK), so since having a king is so great for IP when bluff catching, its also pretty great for OOP when bluffing. equally, 5x combos if played as chk are basically gonna hope IP chks, and if he bets, they're gonna either be a pretty low EV bluff catch or an, obv, 0EV, chkfold, meaning their EV when chkd is mainly found in the chk/chk line, and also meaning that EV even as a whole isn't super high - however, if turned into a bluff and properly balanced, suddenly they can flip that situation and put IP in a spot where he has to decide whether or not to bluff catch with a bunch of near 0EV hands and as a result capture a much larger % of the pot. I reran a river sim (with large nodes :p) and found that OOP captures somewhere around 0.5-1% more of the pot with an equilibrium strat involving the frequencies above than if node locked into chking every hand from that region. Not gonna buy you a yacht overnight, of course, but every little edge adds up.
Thanks for the answer. Bluffing AK5x/KQ5x type of hands makes sense. I guess you could put it that the prime blockers add EV to betting more than the bottom pair helps checking, which is basically what you said anyway.
How far do we take it though? Are hands like AK33/AQ77/AKQ8/KQ87 interested in bluffing as well, or does having slightly higher SDV and/or blocking draws make these hands lean towards checking? (though these combos might not bet the turn a lot I guess)
of those four the only hand id think would be even slightly interested in bluffing is AK33, others have combination of poor blockers and greater showdown than 5x. AK33, given lack of showdown + better blockers + (somewhat related) fact that it infrequently bets turn and only when it contains a fd that IP often bets flop with, lessening impact of having busted draw cards in hand to unblock IP folds, pots as a pure strat in the flawed sim I used in vid (i discarded the other one after analysis, but assume pure strat in a sim with similar results to the one I ran after your question won't shift that easily).
How powerful of a computer are you using for these sims, Richard? I’m trying to figure out if it’s a reasonable investment to get Monker and a CPU powerful enough to enable it to run multiway, deep live poker type spots on a mid-stakes live PLO player budget.
Hey, I currently use a rented server, 256gb RAM, 2x10 Core, and it can run MW sims but >HU + >100bb does tend to blow up the tree size, so I'd struggle, for example, to give each player multiple betsize options, at least without some amount of intelligent trimming/tree design. I think I read somewhere that buying a comparable machine would cost around $5k, which amounts to roughly 18mths rental.
plz allow us to see the bottom of your monker screen for the syntax next time
yeah, sorry about that. will fix going forward.
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.