Finding the Edge in Stats (part 3)
Posted by Leszek Badurowicz
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nice video, maybe you could find some hands to illustrate the points you're talking about on how to adjust vs. the different opponents types.
I was considering to make a 2-part series about adjusting to opponents' tendencies and stats. Now I am even more convinved that this is a good idea ;-)
Hey Leszek,
thank you for yet another great video! I was trying to think how your video could help the area where i struggle - non showdown winnings. I have folliwing stats from 92 k hands of ZOOM 25:
Cbet - 60 % (standard value)
Cbet/fold - 45 % (standard value)
C/fold as PFR - 55 % (loose/AGG value),increased it to 60 % lately
Skip cbet and fold to turn bet IP - 57 % (standard value)
Delayed cbet IP - 47 % (loose/AGG value), reduced to 37 % lately
Delayed Cbet OOP - 49% (standard value), reduced to 37 % lately
Skip cbet and fold to turn bet IP - 57 % & delayed cbet IP - 47 % (a little overbluffing?)
From your video, i find out, that my stats are kind of OKeish. I exploitatively make a little bit more delayed cbets when i would against thinking opponents, who have x/r on the turn range, but i wounder if those stats (especially what seems too low check/f as PFR explain my poor non-showdown winnings, or maybe i i play rivers too passively?
My river stars: River agg - 3.01, River agg % - 28,2, Bet river - 32,4 %. Interestingly, my river aggression is much bigger from blinds.
I loose from BB - 28,59/100 from bb, and 36,23/100 bb from sb AIEV adjusted, so my initial feel that, overall non-showdown winnings "leak" in other places.
Through the sample, i increased my turn cbet- which is now at 48 % (over last 40 k hands it's been 54 %). Lately I've been exprimenting with increased cbet both on the flop and on the turn, but i reduced delayed cbets. Also, I am "trying" to resist some marginal steals from CO and SB, where i probably bleed some EV, but seems that nothing helps my red line.
Obviously, being new to the game, i am still learning how to attack specific board textures/ ranges, and i understand, that red line is a very complex stuff and many other factors are relevant, but would you mind giving me the advice, how to increase my non-showdown winnings or poinintg any other notable leaks in my stats?
P.s. if anyone else has some advice, you are very welcome guys!
@starsailor - your postflop stats look really fine for me. I can't find any leaks. Your BB winrate is fine as well, however I would definitely have a closer look on the SB. Loosing 36bb/100 seems a little bit too much, but this might be just a sample size issue. I would definitely consider playing a little bit more loose preflop. 28/19/8 is probably to loose due to rake at PLO25, but you can think about something in between your style and this. It's really hard to find specific areas for improvement preflop without specific stats like SB steal, BT steal, MP open, BB fold to BTN steal etc.
Moreover 92k sample is not that much for PLO regarding your winrate. A lot of very good regs are breakeven for 100k hands and it's not that strange. But in general I would be looking for some postflop game leaks - sizings, value bets, exploiting your opponents etc. I would assume, there must be some room for improvement.
Hi Leszek! i try to upload your hud but link is broken. Can you give gim again?
Hi Tuznaflope! Usually those free of chargé servers host files for a limited time period, thats why after some time it's impossible to download it. Try to use a new link that I have just created http://www.supershare.pl/?d=B607EA892 - you need to click on download link [site is in Polish] - here you have a screenshot https://scr.hu/0yeq/5mdp9
I tried to download and import the HUD, but was not able to because it was in .HEM format instead of .xml format.
P.S. Great video!
This HUD looks excellent. I wanted to start using this myself, but I use PT4. I took the time to find the stats and the different names that they go by as compared to HEM.
This is what my PT4 HUD looks like reconfigured to look like yours. I was wondering if you could confirm some of these stats, or if anybody knows if these are the correct names going from HEM to PT4
Line 1
Player Name / Hands Abbreviated / Fold to F CB in 3bet+ pot / WWSF / Float Flop / Probe Turn / Donk Flop / Raise F Donkbet
Line 2
VPIP / PFR / 3bet preflop / Fold to PF 3bet / 4bet range / Fold vs BTN steal - custom set to SB / 3bet vs BTN - custom set to SB / Fold vs BTN steal - custom set to BB
Line 3
RFI - custom set to EP / RFI - custom set to MP / Attempt to Steal - LP / Attempt to Steal - custom seat to SB / BB vs SB open - fold / Total AF / Total AFq
Line 4
Cbet flop / Fold to Raise after F Cbet / Fold to Flop Float Bet / Fold to F Cbet / Raise F Cbet / Check Raise Total / Raise F Cbet in 3bet pot
Line 5
Delayed Turn Cbet IP / Fold to T Probe Bet / Bet River / Fold to River Float / Fold to River Probe / River AF
PT4 = HEM
Float flop = flop bet vs missed cbet IP
probe turn = turn bet vs missed flop cbet oop
donk flop = flop donkbet
raise f donkbet = flop raise donkbet
4bet range - raise first in (custom stat / needs to be downloaded) = 4bet range
Fold vs BTN steal - customize position set to SB = SB fold to BTN steal
3bet vs BTN - customize position set to SB = SB 3bet vs BTN
Fold vs BTN steal - customize position set to BB = BB fold to BTN steal
RFI - customize set to EP = EP RFI
RFI - customize set to MP = MP RFI
Attempt to steal LP = CO steal / Button Steal
Attempt to steal - customize position set to SB = attempt to steal SB
BB vs SB open - fold = BB fold to SB steal
Fold to R after F Cbet = flop cbet - fold
Fold to F float bet = c/f as PFR in single raised pot
Fold to F float bet in 3bet pot = c/f as PFR in 3bet pot
Raise F cbet = flop raise cbet
Raise F cbet in 3bet pot = flop raise cbet in 3bet pot
Delayed turn cbet (custom stat to download) = Delayed turn cbet
could not find = Delayed turn cbet in 3bet pot
Fold to turn probe = skip flop cbet and fold to turn bet IP
Bet River = river bet
Fold to river float bet = river c/f oop (another option would be fold to river bet and customizing the setting to out of position)
Fold to river probe bet = river fold IP
Excellent work! PT4 users should be grateful. I am not familiar with PT. Most of the stats looks fine. Float flop is a little bit misleading because usually by floating we mean calling a flop and stealing the pot on later streets. But it seems like PT4 uses different nomenclature.
Also make sure that c/f river is the same as fold to river float bet.
Great work, any chance you could upload this somewhere to share?
Hey leszek,
I was also wondering if you knew what types of values an average player should have for these stats. I know you go over some of them in your video, but i am still unsure when to consider some of these as high/low
hey, your question is probably a little too complex to cover it here, so I think I will just record a whole 40-minute video on that as you are not the first person who is asking for it ;-)
Hey, I just rewatched the video - it's really good stuff as usual and after the second watching a little bit more of the stuff is starting to stick :p . Now I have some questions also:
You don't seem to mention anything about a check/raising range here. This is probably a conscious omission to simplify matters, yes? Do you find a lot of variation in this stat regards to your opponents and what kind of conclusions do you make based on it?
I imagine that the next step from here would be to apply a similar analysis for turn ranges while taking into account the information you have already gained from the flop range analysis. I imagine that I would do it myself at some point in the near future. As you have probably done it already :p, I'd like to ask: What are the most differing factors in analyzing the turn play vs flop play? Anything else I should watch out here?
Keep on doing what you do, this kind of material is exactly why I'm here in the first place :)
1) Yes in single raised pots most of people have just cbetting and c/folding ranges as PFR of course. Their c/raise is usually below 5%. The only situation when imo c/raise really matters (when you play against PFR) is in 3bet pots as some people have as high c/raise as 25%-30%. In general when you play against a player with high c/raise, and low c/fold then his checking range is more polarized. You can exploit that by betting smaller and betting with more polarized range. The worst rhing you can do is to bet/fold 2/3 pot with medium strength hand.
2) Turn is pretty much affected by your flop range and your flop strategy. You could see that in the video, e.g. if you have very weak check back range, then you will fold a lot on the turn vs bets. In a couple of weeks there will be released my video where I summarize all information about stats - this should clarify a lot. But in general imo c/fold as PFR and fold to turn bet after check back flop are one of the most important postflop stats and they provide you with more information then e.g. cbet.
thank you, I'm doing my best! :)
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