Finding the Edge in Stats (part 2)

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Finding the Edge in Stats (part 2)

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Leszek Badurowicz

Essential Pro

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Finding the Edge in Stats (part 2)

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Leszek Badurowicz

POSTED Sep 26, 2015

Leszek continues his nuanced look through the statistical offering of his HUD, discussing how he utilizes that trove of information to his advantages at the tables.

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So_Nitty 9 years, 3 months ago

Very good vid, thank you. It's good that you're pointing out that the stats can be misleading if you just make assumptions without really thinking it through. It makes me think I should stick to a more basic hud until I can really study how to interpret the stats as they relate to players' tendencies.

heishe 9 years, 3 months ago

I hope people who are more into MTT or NLH content check out your videos as well. I think the concepts you explain are absolutely applicable to those games as well. Just too many times I see people say stuff like "HUD doesn't give that large of an advantage if you take notes" which is not a realistic claim considering that a stat tracker literally tracks hundreds of different statistics that you could never notice on your own, let alone with actual detailed frequencies even when you're playing 8+ tables.

Nik0la 9 years, 3 months ago

Thanks again for a great video! You say you watched some video on BB strategy but I can't make out the name. Is it a video on this site or some other site? Would love to check it out as well to see what leaks I have in the BB.

Bisounours86 9 years, 3 months ago

Thanks for the great job you're doing here Leszek !
You said that best regs lose between 25-30BB/100h in SB and between 20-25BB/100h in BB, is it normal to have a higher "winrate" in BB than in SB ?!
I'm working on my HUD and there are 2 stats that I'd like to add but I can't find then on HM :
C/f as PFR single raise pot & C/f as PFR 3bet pot, where can I find them please ?

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 3 months ago

@snakewhite
Thanks for providing the link

@Dimitrios
You need to have really big samples to assess wr on every position. Most of the best regs have a little bit lower wr on the UTG [10-15bb/100] nad higher on the next position MP-BTN [20-30/35bb/100]. Of course you need to consider the variance, but the best regs wr on MS would like more or less like this:
UTG +15
MP +25
CO +30
BTN +30
SB -25
BB -20
This will give you around 9bb/100 so absolutely top results for the best regs at these stakes.
This analysis is the most useful for blinds, I wouldnt bother too much about other position unless you're losing on a pretty big sample. If you have 5bb/100 total and loose 50bb/100 on the BB then just sit down and spend some more time on the BB play - simple! ;-)

@Bisounours86
Most of players have better results on the SB, but most of the best MS regs have better results on the BB. Thats the difference ;-)
Regarding stats, you can find both of them in Skipped Cbet section
http://scr.hu/0yeq/y45yg

spassewr 9 years, 3 months ago

I don't think I'm the only one that was disappointed when so many high stakes players stopped making videos for RIO over the last couple of years. I must say that whoever is in charge of hiring/scouting talented instructors @RIO is doing a great job bc the wide range of teaching styles and the level of creativity has been excellent the last few months. I was gonna name some names but I'm afraid I'm gonna forget someone but Leszek you are obv included since I'm writing it here. Great video, well done!

ppr21 9 years, 3 months ago

Tanks for very good and clear vid!
I'm wondering do all best regs at midstakes have positive redline/nonSD winnings
with AF 2.1-2.8? I'm playing plo50 and i feel its very hard to get redline to positive side, i played even with af 3.5, agg% 40, and river call eff 1.22 last 50k hands so i must miss something important! :)

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 3 months ago

@ppr21
Most of the best reg at MS don't have positive redline. At the same time, there are many BE players with positive redline.
Your cre shows that you definitely make some loosing calls. Many calls are pretty obvious and +ev. Sometimes you have nuts and your opponent shoves into you etc. I haven't examined this stat in details but in my opinion CRE below 1,5/1,6 indicates possible leaks in your river game.

jdstl 9 years, 3 months ago

Can you explain what RCE is measuring and how exactly it measures? From my understanding it was how much money you were making back per dollar you put in the pot calling a river bet. So for instance a RCE of 1.25 would mean you got .25 back for every 1$ you called on the river. I'm not sure I understand why we want to be at 1.5/1.6. Doesn't that imply that we're missing some slightly profitable calls at 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, etc?

Alien Slayer 9 years, 3 months ago

very good video !

I found out that a lot of regulars in the zoom500 pool have very high River AF (over 3.5 ) but not outstanding high AFq% (around 30%) . My assumption would be that they bet and raise quite often , but don't call much , so OOP they are more prone to c/f (or the rarely c/r) then to c/c once they check and probably also rather betting strong hands (both donking and barreling) instead of checking them .
So basically they vbet and bluff a lot, but don't bluffcatch that often .

Does that makes sense to you?

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 3 months ago

@jd.stl

CRE is counted on the basis of all your river calls. Sometimes you call with a draw, hit the nuts and your opponent shoves rest of his stack with e.g. a set into you and you call. That's the easiest decision in the world. Sometimes you make a very strong hand and you know that you are good like 90% of the time but your opponent won't call a raise with worse. Sometimes a fish bets like 20% of the pot and you also have an easy call with medium strength hand. These spots are not interesting, because they don't make any difference. Everybody would play them the same way. If you consider just those spots, your CRE should be like 3 or even higher.

What is really interesting is close spots where you are not sure about the decision. CRE doesnt distinguish close decisions from easy decisions. If your CRE was 1.01 basing only on a close decision then it would be fine, but it is calculated basing on all your decisions. My first guess about 1,5/1,6 wasn't right, I overestimated the number of easy decisions. I have done a little bit of reserach and most of best regs have CRE 1.25-1.5. So the truth is more or less in the middle ;-)

Still CRE of 1,1 means that you probably make some loosing calls on the river.

jdstl 9 years, 3 months ago

Would a way to quantify your RCE's value be (RCE-1)* call%. So for instance if I call 40% of rivers and have an RCE of 1.5 my calling EV would be (1.5-1).4= 0.50.4=0.2

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 3 months ago

@Alien Slayer

Yes, you are right, but your information won't be 100% accurate without their river c/f stat. I find it very useful. I would describe the analysis of river stats in details in the 4th part of this series, because it's too complex to describing it here.

InsideMan 9 years, 2 months ago

Can somebody tell me where I can find the turn bet after flop raise stat and the fold vs turn bet after calling flop raise stat please? Or were these generate with Notecaddy?

lagu123 9 years, 1 month ago

Could you explain a bit what to look for in AF and Ag%, how do they corelate with each other and other stats (like: a NIT is supposed to have high AF because he has strong holdings while if a 40PFR has high AF he is bluffing a ton...) and esp. what does it mean when there is a big disparity in the ussual values eg. Ag% is high and AF is low or vice versa.

NiGhMa4Ever 8 years, 8 months ago

Hi Lechrumski. Very nice one! Thanks
When I see your HUD and popup's I see you don't split stats based on relative position (IP or OOP I mean). Do you think it's not so important?

Leszek Badurowicz 8 years, 8 months ago

Few points:
1) I don't have it in my HUD but you can find it in my pop-ups.
2) Too much information can make decision making proces too complicated.
3) Also I don't perceive a cbet as a really valuable stat. You will see that in my next video ;-)
4) You can gain a lot of information about your oponent IP and OOP postflop tendencies by analysing 2 stats: c/fold flop as PFR and skip cbet and fold to turn bet IP. They will provide you with more information than e.g. cbet or cbet/fold IP ;)

Ephedrine10 8 years, 7 months ago

hello! At 37:25 you said that Purple K 99 might not be bluffing a lot of hands. I think that 26 raise cbet followed by 82% turnbet after raise flop is just insanely high, so he could be an overaggro guy who raises very lightly the flop like AJxx on KQ5 and then barrels through. Can I be right? And BTW very nice videos keep on doing that I'm looking forward to the next.

Leszek Badurowicz 8 years, 7 months ago

Yes I agree that it is insanely high. At the same time it is possible that he is pretty merged and on KQ5 board he raises also AKT5, AAJ, AQT5 etc. Very few people play like this, but it is possible. Imo you need to see a few showdowns to get a detailed reads on this raising range

bgatlanta 7 years, 2 months ago

hellow the stats standars numbers at the final of the video aplicated also to nlholdem?

Leszek Badurowicz 7 years, 2 months ago

I am not a NLHE specialist but I guess the thought proces used to the stats evaluation, exploitation and comparison would be the same. However the specific numbers might be different due to different game styles present in both games.

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