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Finding the Edge in Stats (part 1)

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Finding the Edge in Stats (part 1)

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Leszek Badurowicz

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Finding the Edge in Stats (part 1)

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Leszek Badurowicz

POSTED Aug 15, 2015

In his debut for Run It Once, veteran Polish instructor Leszek Badurowicz a.k.a. "Lechrumski" brings some advanced statistical analysis to the Pot Limit Omaha tables after showing off some stellar results during his intro.

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screamdustry 9 years, 7 months ago

Just to give you guys some inside: i followed PS/PG [polish sites] for some time now and i think its really safe to say that there is no other person who has done more than him for polish poker community in terms of coaching stuff, especially in mindset field. Always incredibly openminded, prepared and 101% professional. You guys are lucky to have him.

Even if i have no interest in PLO, happy to see you @RIO, GL Lechu :)

keenan6524 9 years, 7 months ago

Looking forward to future content, it seems like you bring some different views than the other PLO guys. Thanks for the great video.

So_Nitty 9 years, 7 months ago

What a great hud....really enjoyed your insights into exploiting player tendencies. I think the format was really good. Thank you and looking forward to more. Welcome to RIO

Callie 9 years, 7 months ago

Are your popups filtered for board texture? I have to disagree with a bunch of approaches if this isnt the case.

Cbetting frequencies are usually based on the board texture. Cbetting stats tell us when a villain is too tight or too loose in general. If he is neither, we have to study their tendencies on different board textures.

For example the AAxr board in a 3b pot. As you already noticed villain has ~32% value, which would allow him to just cbet his entire range. Where he would create a check/call range on more dynamic boards.

None the less a good vid:)
Alot of spots are obviously slamdunk reads on which you can exploit villains, which you will see alot on the lower stakes.

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 7 months ago

Thank you for all comments!

hakunamatata

I can upload my main HUD Omaha HUD but can’t upload pop ups. First of all, I have spend over 50 hours on building and correcting them. Second of all, I really don’t think that’s a good idea. These pop-ups are very intuitive … but for me. People are different and I think there is just so much value in the proccess of building your own pop-ups. You need to really put a lot of thoughts into that and it pays off later on at the tables. It will really develope you as a player. I know some MS regs who have received very nice pop-ups but they simply dont use even 20% of their possibilities. Therefore I really strongly encourage you do it yourself ;-) I think this proccess can give you a lot of benefits, but of course will consume a lot of time.

Callie

That’s really a complex topic, but will try to reply the best I can.

My popups are not filtered for the board textures. And I am aware this can bring some additional value to them. When I will finish a few upcoming projects, this is the next thing on my list. I do think that board texture filters might be very useful on monotonne and paired boards, esp in 3bet pots and less useful on other board textures.

E.g. When you face an oponent with 80% cbet, you can safely assume that his cbet HU on monotonne and dry boards will be 100%. Players with 50% cbet will be much more selective and will usually have at least some blockers, and players with 65% will be more less in the middle. Of course you have to always combine it with their c/calling range. Anyway, there are some board textures, like monotonne boards, where people have some strong tendencies that might not be reflected in the main cbet stat and these filters can give us even much more accurate data than traditional HUD.

But the main thing is that in my opinion there are many interesting and underestimated stats and we shouldn’t talk just about cbetting e.g. c/fold as PFR in single raised and 3bet pots, all types of delayed cbets, fold and c/fold vs river bet, donkbet/fold and skip flop cbet and fold to turn bet IP. I find these stats the most useful and I don’t think you can filter them according to board texture.

Anyway thx for the comment and good input, that’s definitely something I will spend more time on.

Gilgamesh 9 years, 7 months ago

Very impressive Leszek!
You said you think it would benefit players to formulate their own pop-ups, I'd appreciate if you briefly demonstrated how (practically) to do it as it's not something I have experience doing. Maybe also a looking at some database where you can pick out examples of poor tendencies. Like when you said 'this fold to river bet is high'. I, and I'm hoping others, don't have any accurate reference to make such judgements as I'm new to using stats.
Thanks again

sted9000 9 years, 7 months ago

great video (content, explanations, and delivery). thanks
i really enjoyed (and would like to see more of) 'stat x + stat y = z'. i think i am really guilty of looking at stats in isolation, forgetting about how interaction between two stats can be very telling.

organizize 9 years, 7 months ago

good video, thanks.
Btw, you said you're "in Top10 zoom plo200 regs this year". What does that mean and where do you get this from? Not trying to argue your statement, just sincerely wondering

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 7 months ago

@organizizee
I mean the top 10 according to winnings this year on Stars. I think I was 7th or 8th when recording this video. If I'm correct the site collecting this data has a rule that prohibits to mention it on forums. So I will send you on prm

WHYCHECK 9 years, 7 months ago

Hello Leszek,

Elite member here. Really great, great vid.
I am more an player who exploites players without many statts but this vid makes me reconsider.
I agree by taking the time and effort to create your own HUD and pop ups so you learn (and remember!) much better what they do and mean to you.
However, a lot of players (even good ones) aren't that HUD and pop-up experienced/happy/oriëntated and therefore shy away from it (and ofcourse miss out). Also I find that a lot of the names of the statts, are not well explained what they mean. So, it could be very helpfull for a lot of us, whose brains are not HUD/pop up abstract oriëntated, to see an advanced vid with an explanation about the not so common but very usefull statts HM and PT have to offer.

But if any upcoming vid is as good as this one, I don't mind what kind off vid it is :).

Cheers,

Tom

naju13 9 years, 7 months ago

"My popups are not filtered for the board textures [...] this is the next thing on my list."
Can you do this with HM2? Where should I look at?

Thank you, very nice video

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 7 months ago

@Whycheck
Thank you for very valueable input. I will definitely reconsider my plan for the next videos. I was thinking about such a video on stats explaination, but I thought it would be too obvious. Now I see, there is a serious interest in stats. As you said, even some experienced players may benefit from that.
Of course I understand your point and I don't mean basic stats like cbet but a little more complex and at the same time very useful like skip flop cbet and fold to turn bet IP.

naju13
No you can't do this in HM2. It requires Note Caddy. This functionality is the main advantage of this program, however it also offers few other stats unavailable in HM2. Unfortunately NC is really time consuming, but this is something I will definitely look into at the end of this year.

WHYCHECK 9 years, 7 months ago

:thumbs up:

Let's reasoning a bit about the 'obviousness' (don't know if this word exist but it sounds funny :) ) of such a vid. We are poker players so we like to reasoning and we (think we) are good in it right?
After your introduction, about two thirds of the vid is how you exploite your opponents based on information of some statts that are less common to use in your HUD/pop up.
I think we can savely assume that 90%+ vid watchers have HM or PT and probably more close up to 100%.
If you then consider how many reactions and likes you did receive on your vid, I think we can probably conclude that a lot of players don't use HM/PT to their full advantage. And I have to shamely admit that I am one of them... .

Cheers, Tom

bloked 9 years, 7 months ago

elite member here too.

Very nice video. can you send me the site too? i saw some videos from you in pokerstrategy.com, i love the videos about psycology.

i love the content of thevideo, and love how you explain. see u next video.

DuDot 9 years, 7 months ago

Excellent video.

I downloaded the HUD link and it's an XML file. Any suggestions on how to convert that to something useful?

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 7 months ago

@Whycheck
Thanks for that clarification. I can definitely help you to use HM/PT to its full advantage. I am also aware that there is still some area for improvement in terms of using NC.

DuDot
I'm about to finish my 3rd video for RIO. My video nr 4 will be fully dedicated to stats. I will explain most of less common stats from my HUD, typical values for regs and explain how you can exploit players who are unbalanced. I will also discuss colours that I'm using. Wait for this video. It should clarify a lot.

And thank you all for a really warm welcome :-)

Nik0la 9 years, 7 months ago

Really liked this video, thank you!

I have to say it's a bit baffling to me that there are regs with so large leaks at nl200. How does people have 70-90 cbet or check fold close to 100%? I though such players would get crushed before ever getting to these stakes.

jmarcer 9 years, 7 months ago

amazing video! I really want to see more from you, but only one thing... make the poker juice screen bigger please! ;)

xcrambler 9 years, 7 months ago

Fantastic first video I am looking forward to your future ones! I am really keen for a notecaddy hud filter video! I am trying to workout how to make a notecaddy filter for paired boards in plo, but I cannot find any tutorials for advanced notecaddy filters any ideas really appreciate it??

WHYCHECK 9 years, 7 months ago

Hey Leszek,

In the beginning of the vid you say you have changed your big blind play significantly which turned out very well. Are you willing to share these changes with us?

Cheers.

Tom

PLOpleyah 9 years, 6 months ago

Great video Leszek!!
A little question, in minute 39:22 when you look at his River bet and you say it's pretty high, would it be correct look at his WSD an combine the two for a more accurate estimation of his bluffing?

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 6 months ago

PLOpleyah
No, this is not enough. W$SD is so much affected by a variance. I would rather use WWSF, and fold against river bet because this stat will show you what your opponent does with his top/mid range.
Wide calling range + high river bet usually means a lot of bluffs.
High river bet + narrow calling range means lots of thin vbets so you can't just look at W$SD ;-)

PLOpleyah 9 years, 6 months ago

Thanks a lot for your accurate answer.
The question is now clear for me. As simple as it sounds, but I've never considered how much W$SD is affected by a variance.

And congratulations for your video "Out of position float", it's awesome.

aJb136 9 years, 5 months ago

leszek,
In the 2nd line of the last slide in this video titled "conclusions", you mention that players with a high cbet and a high flop c/fold tend to be merged. how can someone have a high cbet and a high c/fold at the same time? or am i not understanding this correctly? you make the point that these ppl with high cbet tend to bet their strongest, middle, and some of their weakest part of their range (hence the high cbet%) and i understand that.....but i dont follow where the high c/fold part of that sentence comes into play. thanks for the video!

Leszek Badurowicz 9 years, 5 months ago

Yes, because they put almost all of their strong hands and medium strength hands in their Betting range. Because of that, when they check, their range is pretty weak and they can't really find a lot of hands that can check/call a flop with. That's why their c/fold stat in the flop is very high like >80%.

sutii 9 years, 3 months ago

Hi, can you give new link for HUD download? Those previous links doesn't work. And yes! Please keep these videos coming. Now lets see part 2 :)

TTWflofix 9 years, 1 month ago

Hello Leszek, I've watched about half of your videos here and I must say that they have already been very useful for my game, so thanks for that!

I have also a question about your HUD popups. I'm inspired by them and I want to build my own. The question I have is about the apprearance of the popups - Did you use some custom editor to make them? The default HEM2 editor seems very tedious to use and I don't understand how to make those type of 'boxes' (instead of just rows & columns) that you have in your popups.

TTWflofix 9 years, 1 month ago

Ah, I think I actually figured it out. There is a bug in HEM 2 which screws up the borders in the popup designer preview, hence my initial confusion. Thanks for the videos and awaiting eagerly parts 3 and 4 of this series :)

Leszek Badurowicz 8 years, 11 months ago

You need to wait 10 seconds and then press "Download the link"

fishingbud 8 years, 11 months ago

Hello buddy. Loving the videos.
Don't think the supershare link you got there works. It's an .HEM file, so it just launches hold em manager. For us to recieve the hud we need a .xml file which is gotten by "exporting" the hud in the hud settings. Then it will allow us to import it.
Would be very appreciated.

ponyneck 6 years, 6 months ago

This is a great video. Recently purchased my first HUD & it's kind of information overload. It's obvious how to exploit some stats, but others not so much. I see there's a couple more videos in the series. Can't wait to watch those too! Thanks for the great content!

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