Fantasyland (Part 2: Pineapple)
Posted by Jen Shahade
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Another excellent video Jen.
12:00 Another key element that example hand 2 differs from hand 1 in choosing to put the T up top or go for FL is that in Hand1 with JJ we scoop villain but in this hand beating his top with TT only nets 2pts not a scoop given he has 2pr in mid and we are locking ours up as AA. I think that adds a big difference in EV, even in the first hand I think it makes the JJ up top a slam dunk and not just a footnote.
Thanks! In the first example he either fouls (note how dead 6s and 8s are) or makes his straight often enough that the JJ won't swing a scoop as often as it first seems. But yes, it still adds beyond the royalty value of JJ up top, which is already slightly greater than the K play.
In the TT example, we net an immediate 7 points by placing the ten up top. I still have a slightly higher value for the more aggro play that I recommend in the video.
But it would be a mistake to jettison the jack while the TT example is close, especially for those who user a lower value of FL than I do.
Thanks Jen, I couldn't tell of you included that extra 2pts for the win when putting TT on top but I see now that you did. Nice work and perhaps my 2nd comment is nullified as well; I couldn't tell.
19:32. Looks like you didnt include the JJJ royalty in your calcs just the scoop potential. Not a huge difference but should add about .35pts in EV.
Good point! I'm usually more meticulous when it's close- I try to get a rough estimate and then if it seems close, look for the smaller things that may sway me.
At 12:00 when you put the card in the middle you are giving up on a scoop.... Seems like a major element
True--the scoop is still live when we play tens up top. I didn't do any real math for this one in the video so here's a rough comparison: We have About 7+1.5 in redraws for keeping FL live vs. 7+2 points for scoop potential (.4x5) for locking the tens up top. Super close bc he gets case ace or something random like running QQ/KK/JJ ~17% of the time which would save more from the conservative option.
Really liking your videos so far.
I have a general question about pineapple OFC I'm hoping you can help me with. Do you know how to calculate the odds of drawing a pocket pair given a certain deck size and number of cards for each rank?
Hey, glad you enjoyed the video! You can manually count the ranks out there if you want to get a precise answer. For instance, if there are three of a certain rank out there, then the odds of catching that pair with one draw left heads-up are 2.5% on the button, with four of the rank left, it's 5%, and this all can be a huge factor if you are deciding whether to place a kicker with a direct out or hold out for multiple running pair outs. In game, you often have to estimate. We start with 1/6 odds of catching a pocket pair from three cards. I often just scan for clusters of pairs and tweak that number accordingly. In my next theory video, I'll probably talk about kickers and do some more precise math on this!
Hi Jen, Your videos are interesting. I have a basic question to understand your videos better is how do you calculate the odds of hitting your outs in pineapple? Could you please give me an example lets say we have 6 outs and two rounds?
Best Wishes, N
Hi Najamq! Thanks! Glad you enjoy.
As to your question, first we need to figure out the unseen cards. Let's say we're heads up first to act with two turns left. We saw our original five cards, four cards which we played, two discards, and four of our opponents cards. So there are 34 unseen cards. 28 of those unseen cards will not make our hand, so we simply use the equation below to figure out what the odds of us NOT HITTING OUR OUT ARE on the new six cards. The opposite of that is the chances of hitting one or more of our outs.
The example you request would therefore be
=SUM(28/34)*(27/33)* (26/32)*(25/31)*(24/30)*(23/29)= .28
so you are 72% to get there.
This assumes that your opponents discards are totally unknown. In reality, they are less likely to discard certain cards and more likely to discard others. However, as I point out in the video, the effect is not as big as I intuited. Three-handed it plays a far greater role.
I know this is from a while ago but
@ 24min you talk about the value of your simul draws to boat/trip or boat/2pr middle and qualify.
your analysis seems a bit off thinking it adds points to the hand when in fact it doesn't. What it does do is add to the probability of getting to FL. If we are doing relative analysis, we're leaving both the bottom and middle open (putting q8 up top would be conservative), these points are going to be added to the hand in both the conservative and the aggressive way as both draws are live in both cases, so adding these points to the hand when analyzing just the aggressive way doesnt lead us to the right answer when we dont leave that option available for the conservative route. Unless you go back and redo the math on the conservative play, were not comparing apples to apples. This would increase the EV of the conservative play as well, in fact an equal amount to the aggressive play. This short hand allows us to disregard the added value as we essentially are solving for when EV(agro)>EV(cons), the same term will be on both sides, and cancel out.
It will however add 4% to the times we make it to FL, increasing our EV that way.
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