Fantasy Horror Shows

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Jen Shahade

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Fantasy Horror Shows

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Jen Shahade

POSTED Sep 25, 2014

Jen shares a series of fantasy land hands where sets backfired, and attempts to mine nuggets of learning from past mistakes.

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rengonnaren 10 years, 5 months ago

30 min hand: flush draw/trips mid vs flush/pair- want a quick check on my shortcut/thinking

given its a Wa/Wb situation and villian will either qualify (draw A what 40-45%? if you drawing 1 out is 18%, him drawing 1/3 A has to be ~40-45% w/o doing math).

a back of the napkin calculation can quickly be done for the ev of the aggressive v conservative route to demonstrate which is better:just

aggressive: 25% foul/75% qualify
0.25(-6)+.75(6)=3

conservative: we are guaranteed 4, so quickly on our side we can see conservative route is much better even before we look at his hand we can get a quick comparison. we can see the penatly for him qualifying is -11 while hell still foul ~40%?! (45% A, 15% 56?! random guess before doing math), keeps approximately the same cost of fouling.

Jen Shahade 10 years, 5 months ago

Hey! I think your back of the napkin calc is a bit too simplified for general practice (without seeing his hand) because trips in the middle are usually (slightly less so in this case bc he can foul) worth far more than 2 points. In this case when he qualifies it will often swing the middle and/or save a scoop. Even when he fouls, it sets us up for top royalties. Notice that all the kings are live! This is why I think the redraw is really the crucial factor--otherwise there are so many compelling reasons to gamble.

He'll get an ace around 50% but he other ways to qualify-- kings or 6/5 (which may cause him to deviate from the ace path, but also may not matter if he fills up). So I think using 40% would be too deflated. I'd use 2/3 in favor for a quick calc.

mrfish 10 years, 5 months ago

I liked your video a lot though on 35 min hand considering living space for a Q instead of taking JJ imediatly surprised me i thought is not even close, how much do you think a fl is worth

mrfish 10 years, 5 months ago

I liked your video a lot though on 35 min considering living space for a Q up top instead of taking JJ imediatly surprised me, I thought is not even close.
I think I heard from you somewhere but dont remember I wanna ask for your opinion of how much a fl is worth.

Jen Shahade 10 years, 5 months ago

In my earlier videos, I used the number 9.5 with the caveat that the number should probably go down as people start to play better vs. FL. Now I use 9.

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