Sunday Million Final Table Run (part 6)
Posted by Espen Sørlie
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Good run, Espen.
dont you think pokerluffy missed value with his kto at 22m?
I don't really blame him. I can see that it might be good to go for something like 1/3rd pot otr, but theres no guarantee to get called by much worse and I think PKaiser can still have a few better hands than luffy. Combowise otr I am going to give Pkaiser for worse hands than KT: T9s (1combo), JTs (1 combo), 99 (6 combos), 88 (6 combos), 78s (theres 3 combos but I think he mostly will fold pre so giving him only 1). Better hands than KT: ATs (2 combos) JTdiamonds (1 combo), T9dd (1 combo), JJ ( 6 combos), QJs+QKs (think he is likely to lead these ott so only adding half of the combos which is 3).
So I come up with 17 combos we beat and 15 that beats us that are likely to call river. ofc the combos that has us beat are more likely to call than the ones we beat. It is actually close ish, and Im going back to the start where I said I don't blame him for checking back and taking the lower variance way. Last point I want to make is that given the way tournaments works, chips saved are more valuable than chips gained. Meaning the more chips you get, the value of each of them is slightly lower.
About Icmizer analysis I think the result might be different if you choose to select "final table". I don't know how different but I guess it might be..
Thanks cool serie!
Hey guys, the icmizer on the Q8o hand is wrong. default payouts 9/10max means that only top 3 are paid, and since there is no difference then between 6th/5th/4th. In this example it probably tells us to jam wider than icm actually dictates to gain chips and get into top 3. Sorry about that, I gotta say I mess up the same thing in my next video but realize it real time bec the results get very skewed there.
Good run! How deep you think we need to get to start putting pressure if we got a big stack, lets say there are 50 players left,9 handed and we have around 50 bigblinds and cover most of the table, when do you start open loads? :) of course this is relative, given everything you have to consider.
Example: 50 players left, in third place here, just to give you a view of the stacksizes at the table, would you sit thight or try to open a lot ?
http://www.boomplayer.com/no/poker-hands/Boom/6881521_F55D68CA0F
ICM pressure is mostly good around the money bubble and at the final table. that is where chips the "middle stacks" lose are worth more than the chips they win so you can exploit them. we can of course take advantage of people who are not used to being deep and/or really want to make the ft (even tho the ft in itself isn't worth making big -ev folds for). It is all about finding the spots, dont over do it and go crazy when you have a big stack, people often expect you to so it can be a lot of value in actually having hands.
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