Designing Preflop Ranges (part 2)

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Designing Preflop Ranges (part 2)

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Steve Paul

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Designing Preflop Ranges (part 2)

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Steve Paul

POSTED Sep 14, 2015

Steve continues a series from a few months back in which he tries to pinpoint solid pre flop ranges.

42 Comments

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gerardstdenis 9 years, 7 months ago

Do you think lack of nut flush draws/flushes in flatting range is anything to be concerned about? Even just for someone using removal effects against you?

Steve Paul 9 years, 7 months ago

It sounds like you're implying that button can rep the nuts on some boards and then balance that with some nut blocker hands. He can do that no matter how many nut flushes we have in our range since nut blocker hands (and nut flushes) block all of our nut flush hands.

Having few nut hands on some runouts is somewhat unfortunate but we will still have a lot of very strong hands (flushes) on those boards so button can't really go too crazy just because we're "capped"

Kinda Close 9 years, 6 months ago

Steve, nice vid. I wanna follow up 'geradstdenis' question. If we don't have nut flush draw on wet board. How can we balance our c/r range? I'm raising w/ 9 high flush draws OTF often, and it sometimes turn dominate flush which is disaster.

Steve Paul 9 years, 6 months ago

Having flush under flush after raising the flop is going to be a disaster no matter what your range looks like :)
I think too often people get in a spot and think "I can't have the nuts here...man if I could have the nuts here that would be sweet". But just because having the nuts in a spot is pretty sweet doesn't mean you need to alter your preflop strategy so you can have the nuts in every spot.

Steve Paul 9 years, 6 months ago

meh I don't think it's the worst flop raise or anything but you're in a pretty dreadful spot if you get jammed on. You also have quite a lot of draws and few stron value hands given preflop action, so you don't want to raise a high % with your draw hands imo. So my default would be to call flop, but I'm losing a stack in this hand. I think it's important to avoid the thinking of "I lost a stack therefore I made a mistake"

AznDegen13 9 years, 7 months ago

cool video I wish more people would comment because I am a fish who doesnt fully grasp all these concepts..

AS a live 1/2 player what I got out of this video is that Its ok to 3 bet wide in very specific player types or situations ...

At a glance the number of combos you mention seems very wide ! I dont fully understand balancing ranges but at a glance I would not be 3 b low pps oop...

thanks for sharing!

tesla79 9 years, 6 months ago

Fantastic teacher.
Steve, is there any chance to get this presentation? :-)

Best regards: T79

Steve Paul 9 years, 6 months ago

Here are the powerpoint and excel files:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1B0NQEce3NzM0lZa3kwMElMRjA/view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1B0NQEce3NzRk50TXFEeGtvWDg/view?usp=sharing

tesla79 9 years, 6 months ago

Hello Steve!

I'm still shocked about this stuff. I've never seen that deep math behind the game. For example the blocking effect of various hands, and after that choosing "random" hands for bluff. I believe 3beting with 85s is a very good deception. :-)
/I can't remember the exact range now.../

So, is there any possibility to get all the PP presentation that we can see in your videos? :-/
Or I clearly understand if it is not the part of my essential membership, so I can pay for it.
It is just a very good short drill for me.

Have you ever tried "PREZI"? I believe you could make spectacular presentations!

Thanks for all of your kindness!

Best regards: T79

pokerhero 9 years, 6 months ago

good work steve.
at 6:05 the equation u have, solve for x doesnt equal to the x u end up using.

Steve Paul 9 years, 6 months ago

Oops. Solving gives x = 0.763, but the number we're interested in is the 3bet % which is 1-x = 0.237

For clarity I should have written the equation as:

(1-0.18) * (1-x) = 1-0.375
since then x represents the 3bet %

Sloppy by me, but doesn't affect anything else.

pokerhero 9 years, 6 months ago

would love to see u breakdown a blind 3betting range vs a utg range. i think thats pretty interesting and quite different than blinds vs btnn as utg range is so narrow.
keep up the good work! appreciate these!

tesla79 9 years, 6 months ago

I rather would like to look a BTN vs. CO/MP/UTG video, because most of the pro tells you, that you need a much higher 3bet IP than OOP.
Actually, I have 2x larger range 3bet on BB/SB, than BTN, because I really like to play cold call big pots IP. (dont need FE)

tesla79 9 years, 6 months ago

Steve!
One more question(s) :-)
I saw you have "Snowie ranges" in Flopzilla. I think it is not default. Have you written in it?
Do you think Snowie is usefull for any learning method?

THX

Steve Paul 9 years, 6 months ago

Yeah I copied some snowie ranges in at one point. I have mixed feelings about snowie as it seems to do some stuff that's clearly wrong, so it's hard to trust the rest. It does a reasonable job of marking hands for review (not all of its "errors" are bad plays but many are) but not sure how useful it is beyond that. Oh I also like the balance page it has where it tells you how often you're betting/raising strong/medium/weak hands by street, etc.

Synapse 9 years, 5 months ago

I must say that this material is, at the very least, worthy of an elite membership. Somebody give this man a promotion!

I wanted to point out that @ 8:30, I believe there is a mistake with your mdf estimate. From your previous videos: A = a/(1+a) where a is %pot that is bet, and mdf = (1-A)

So, button 4bet reps (21/30.5)p. -> A = (2/3)/(5/3) = 2/5 -> 1-A ~.60

mdf ~.60 makes sense to me, as against pot-sized bet mdf = .50. Here, we should be defending more to prevent auto-profit when villain risks less.

Steve Paul 9 years, 5 months ago

Glad you like the videos!

At 8:30, the math in the video is correct. The a/(1-a) where a is % of pot only works for bets, not raises. The more general formula is (money in pot)/(amount risked + money in pot). An example:
Postflop: pot is 2. Villain bets pot. He risks 2 to win 2, so we defend (2)/(2+2) = 1/2
Postflop: pot is 1, we bet pot, villain raises pot. The pot sized raise is to 4, so he's now risking 4 to win 2 (the 1 in the pot plus the 1 we bet). So we must defend 2/(2+4) = 1/3.
You can do EV calculations for both spots to confirm that defending those frequencies makes EV(bluff) = 0.

It's just a quirk of the terminology people use. A "pot sized" raise risks significantly more than is actually in the pot, whereas a pot sized bet risks exactly what is in the pot.

aamadeo 9 years, 3 months ago

Me again deviating a little from topic :D

I'm trying to do the squeezing range + defend against squeeze using similar math and I want to confirm that I'm not doing it wrong.

So the spot is :
Blinds 1.5bb
R opens 3bb
C calls 3bb
S squeezes 12bb

DM (dead money before squeeze) : 7,5bb
DMs (dead money after squeeze): 19,5bb

So, the FE necessary to squeeze any two should be something like this :

0 < EV = FE(DM) - (1-FE)12bb
solving FE
61,54% < FE

The equity necessary to continue against the squeeze is :
Call = (12bb - 3bb)
EMN = Call / (DMs + Call) = 31,58%

And I'm looking for a good 4bet vs Sqz Size, and I have these:
DMs=19,5
ORS = 3bb
Call = ORS + 4BS - 12bb
EMN = Call/(DMs+Call)

4BS - EMNC
22 - 24,10%
23 - 25,88%
24 - 27,59%
25 - 29,21%
26 - 30,77%

4BS=26 isn't it too big?
22-23->are we giving good odds to call?

EDIT:
At the end I have a Sqzing range almost the same as the 3bet, but I should consider that I may be against possibly two opponents so I should tighten up my range right?

Steve Paul 9 years, 3 months ago

All the math looks reasonable. The main thing you want to be careful with when choosing a bigger 4bet size is to allow yourself to 4b/f. If your 4bet is big enough you can never fold to a 5b then you are effectively just jamming. 26 still leaves room so I don't think you can certainly say it's too big.

You do have two opponents but you also get to win more with your successful squeeze and generally caller's range will not continue super often, so I don't think it's necessarily a mistake to have a squeezing range similar to a 3bet range in frequency. Since it will sometimes go 3way though it might make more sense to skew it towards hands which can play reasonably multiway.

Not a spot where I have anything close to definitive answers for you but hopefully that helps.

aamadeo 9 years, 3 months ago

Last question :) (on this topic) if 26bb is 4BS that would be 29bb total of money we put in this hand.

I have to use his pushing range to calculate the minimum eq (vs my weakest 4bet) to figure it out the maximum size I can 4bet/fold right ?

For example if the eq of my weakest 4Bet is A3s vs his pushing range (QQ+), my eq is 28%, so
0 = EV = eq200 - RoomToFold (or callSize)
RoomToFold = 200bb
28% = 56bb (if we use a rake pot it would be 53,2bb)

Right? I'm not sure of this because when I started learning poker I heard million times that if we put more than 20% of our stack preflop we can't fold anymore.

shinkuu43 8 years, 9 months ago

Hey, great video, exactly what I've been looking for! I more or less play ABC with my hands and for a while now have been trying to look for material to improve on that, so I don't really know how these things are supposed to work, but, I've heard a lot about the importance of balance when constructing ranges, and, as geradstdenis hints at, your calling range is not balanced. So then, how important is that in your opinion? Is it ok to have a 3bet range that leaves behind such a weak calling range, especially when playing against observant opponents?

I play at the low stakes so I imagine must players I'm playing against will never notice or care much one way or another, but what is most "correct" in your opinion?

Thanks!

Awshum3r 8 years, 5 months ago

Great Video Steve! This is exactly what I was looking for when I choose to sign up with RIO. The thought process, visuals, math, discussion and modeling of the concepts is very helpful. Thank you for this!

ilprincipedario 8 years ago

Dear Paul, probably because of my poor knowledge of English and Math I cannot understand this point of the slide "Aside: EV facing fold". Why do we consider folding as good as 3betting when "EV when called is > - 1.33 bb"? If we fold we always lose 1 bb, whereas 3betting and being called with EV -1.33 we are breakeven. Probably I am missing something.

Steve Paul 8 years ago

Haven't rewatched but EV(3bet) is made up of 3 parts - when we get a fold, a call or a 4bet. I'm guessing in that part I'm keeping the fold/4bet parts constant and then finding the breakeven point for EV(when called)

kingkong 7 years, 10 months ago

Hi, I don't understand 15:15 how you come to an EV of 5.65 facing a 3bet with an R of 35%. From what I understood the formula would be 41(0,35)-12 = EV facing the 4bet = 2,35.

Same thing with an R of 40%.

Steve Paul 7 years, 10 months ago

We're trying to come up with an EV for the 3bet. We put in 8 to 3bet and get back 2.35 when we get 4bet, 2.35-8 = -5.65.

edit: if R<29% we have to fold and so lose 8bb, R=35% we can call and gain back 2.35bb from our 3bet and so only lose 5.65bb

Ssein2010 7 years, 2 months ago

Awesome Video, but honestly its my first time learning Poker... and I don't really understand the Math and Language (EB, bb, b, 3b, 4b, etc. .. Sorry..
Hopefully, you guys can help me understand it more. Thank you very much

wub 6 years, 11 months ago

Hi Steve,

I tried downloading Holdem Viewer but it crashes every time I try to evaluate a range.

Are there any modern alternatives that have the same functionality?

Steve Paul 6 years, 11 months ago

I have had the same problem recently on my desktop but for some reason it works on my laptop, no idea why. I don't know of any program that does the same thing unfortunately.

OneManGang 6 years, 10 months ago

How come when I punch in the example range at the end of the video where you get 16.44%, I get 23.7% which happens to be the cap.Are my eyes playing tricks on me?
By the way your videos are great!!!

OneManGang 6 years, 10 months ago

Yeah, my old pokerazor program does not adjust the percentage when it's weighted I guess. Maybe I should buy pio solver. Thanks...

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