Database Review of LikeItGreen
Posted by Steve Paul
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Hi Steve!, i am having trouble finding River Call WIn % in HM2 stats search, what is the exact name?
It's under River Call Win Pct not River Call Win % even though it displays as the latter one.
Great video. I really enjoyed the HH-review in the latter part of the video. You analyze the hands very clearly without breaking them down too much, and talking about every single hand for a long time. It makes it very easy to stay engaged througout.
I am looking forward to your next video!
Thanks!
at around 24:45 u say that green probably doesnt call enough on the river and then u filter for the onepaired hands and get that green is good on his river calls 43% of the time. u estimate that this number should be lower depending on the betsize but i guess we are looking for a number around 30%.
but at the stakes green plays people probably dont have enough bluffs in their range / dont size their bets accordingly. in theory could it be that green adjusts his river calling range very good accordingly to his villains stats. so there are villains against whom green folds too much cause they have too few bluffing hands. and there are villains against whom green calls more often because they too many bluffing hands. and this skews greens river calling statistic higher than what the river pot odds indicate it to be.
so say green´s villains bet 70% pot on the river and suggest that green´s river calling statistic should be around 29%. is it possible that due to the above explanation there is a divergence in the stats and green´s 43% river call stat might be optimal.
well first off all it should definitely be higher than 29% since 29% is the minimum required equity and so we call anytime we're good >=29%. So 43% is not definitely too high, and one problem with looking at stats is that you can't really conclude anything except when stats are ridiculously out of line.
But the combination of folding a lot on the river and being good that often suggests that there may be a leak there. You're right though that it could be the case that he's doing a really good job of identifying spots and that there is no leak.
Have to watch it again with my pencil and paper but great job, was looking for that kind of video
Hey Steve first of all thanks a lot for the video.
I've watched twice, and i will watche it again later today while taking notes, so i'll probably have a few questions for you.
Thank for the vid Steve! It was really well done!! And a great help for someone like me who can now break down some of the stats in my database. You give great insight into spots we should be looking for a vbet or check back and even more importantly (for my learning curve), a look at ranges and what we look like to villain as well as what villain got to the river with in many of the examples. Thanks again and great job!!!
Hi Steve.
When you talk about the spots BB defense vs BTN steal i quite disagree with you concerning the defense range.First of all you have to take into account the huge rake taxed by the room which compels to defend a little tighter than as described.My second point being that every hand you choose to defend needs around 48% equity OOP vs the BTN entire range so there is no way i'm gonna call Q5s for ie unless he steal >75%.So please could you be more specific concerning this topic for it seems to me you're a bit out of the way compared to what i can read in Janda's book.Thanks a lot, your enthusiasm is quite nice to hear.
Hi Sharegrave,
A couple comments, though I don't have any definite answers.
1. I'm not sure where 48% equity comes from as your equity threshold. Also I think equity thresholds tend to not be very useful as you can't convert equity to EV.
2. I believe Matt has a thread on 2+2 where he's repeatedly stated that his preflop section is by far the weakest part of his book. Also I believe he uses a larger than standard pf raise size (maybe 3.5x?) which would have a big impact on defending ranges. Typical open sizes in today's games are much smaller and we're getting a much better price and so should defend wider. For example I think Q5s is a really really easy defend vs a typical button opening range making it 2.5x (I'd call 3x as well)
The equity threshold i use is meant to help beginners like myself playing NL 25 to adjust to build a standard-safe CC range when it comes to defense so as not to defend too wide and thus bleeding money for lack of skills.
If BTN opens at 2,5bb BB must defend at least 37% of his range in order to prevent him from making a profit with ATC.I understand that it's best to flat with a range that will make marginal pairs at a high frequency,however Q7s would still be the top of my folding range.
As Janda wrote (and i'm far from understanding it fully):
t's wrong to think that hands can be classified from strongest to weakest based on their equity alone.
It doesn't take into account that villain's range will change based on what line we take and this causes the equity of our hands to change.
For this reason hands which work best as calls don't always have more equity than hands which work best as bluff raises.
Yes I see what you're saying I just don't know where the 48% in this quote:
comes from.
This type of analysis is not particularly useful preflop. First, you've ignored the sb's role in defending. But even more importantly you've ignored that button gets to see a flop whenever you flat call and even his junkiest opens have quite reasonable equity postflop. If you're only defending 37% button can open extremely wide.
Great video Steve. on SBvBT(I never flat) and BBvBT i was wondering...
Lets assume SBvBT; BT opens for 2.5x, SB(hero) 3-bet w/ 8bb and BT 4-bets for 19~20BB, hero needs to defend at least 40~41%. Like if my SB strategy is to make linear 3b with Top 15% of my hands(200ish combos) then I'd have to defend with AQo and 99-TT as well against 4b. How do I deal with this situation? flatting with 99 or AQo seems very unprofitable and 3b/c range seems capped as well (99-TT, AQ) and on postflop, I almost always have to bluffcatch OOP. I know some ppl 3b/c AA to balance, but I dont think that is quite enough to balance my capped range. Do I have to balance by NEVER 5-BET JAMMING and all my AA-99, AK/AQ go to 3b/c range? (Same question goes for BBvBT. Hard to make construct MDF range against 4b when our both value 3b[AJ,AQ] and bluff 3b gets to be wide)
I also want to ask about jamming 5b(jam) w/ TT on Button vs blinds or BvB, Do you think it is profitable play overall? It certainly is bit easier to balance my entire range if so.
Well you only need to deal with the situation if you're opponents are 4bet bluffing with a reasonable frequency. And if they are then flatting 99 or AQo (or even significantly worse hands) is going to show a significant profit. Also, while being capped will lead to some difficult postflop spots for you, it's really not much of a problem to be capped when stacks are so shallow.
Being capped decreases your EV because your opponent can make really big bets without fear of you trapping. In 4bet pots at 100bb there just isn't enough money behind for this to be an issue.
A rough outline of a reasonable default strategy facing a 4bet as sb vs bu is to 5b jam JJ+/AK and some bluffs (A5s, 66 type hands), flat some Axs, suited broadways/connectors and TT-88 type hands, fold the rest.
re 5b jamming TT if it's not profitable (ie better than folding) then your opponents are just not 4bet bluffing nearly enough. Vs many opponents calling will be the best option. I think if your opponents are playing in the way your post suggests you should be much less concerned with being balanced.
Thanks Steve for the input :) I understand how I can defend against 4-bets now with confidence.
I'd also want to ask about not 4betting or 5betting IP. The idea came from Cameron Couch's video; It was sth like COvMP and CO(Cameron) had flatted AKo against MP(reg) 4b saying he can keep villain's hand like A5s. He also said he'll do the same thing against regs with some suited connectors and AA. What do you think about this strategy? This way, I realized I can value 3b/c with AQ as well, since our hand range is protected. My idea is not to do this by 3b/c with AK/AA/SCs but 3b/c IP with ALL hands like AQ+/JJ+. And same idea goes for BTvsSB/BB. To never 4b, but instead flatting against their 3-bets with ALL value 4 bets as well. This way we can protect wide range of hands. Only when ur IP tho.
What do you think about this idea? Do you think we are missing values by not 4b(or 5b) IP?
I think never 4betting is a pretty significant mistake. You give up too much value with your strong hands and you take away one of the big disincentives for your opponent to 3bet light (he never gets blown off his equity)
liked the video, looking forward to see some more!
would you be willing to export the hud and share it? I attempted to recreate it, but failed to find a lot of the stats for the smaller panels and the last lines of the main panel, sigh.
I think this link should work: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1B0NQEce3NzN2FpM3phUnlYQU0/view?usp=sharing
Let me know if it doesn't, I'm not so good with uploading stuff
thanks I appreciate it Steve!
I actually think betting half pot on turn as he seems to do is a pretty big leak. I used to do that and I would end up getting half pots value for my good hands and lose 3/4 pots when my opponents ended up having good hands. Maybe that was just me not adjusting properly but I bet bigger now both as bluffs and value and I think it works out a lot better. I'm far from an expert though, just another 10 NL player!
sounds like you aren't defending your equity in the pot, half potting an unbalanced range against someone who wants to draw is a bad idea imo. Think about pot odds and how many outs villain could have to improve, and you should be able to make some decent assumptions.
my understanding of betsizing is that we want to size up when our range is polarised, and down when our range is focused. we therefore get max fold equity and value from the former, and a good price/pot control for the latter. Villain dependent though.
I like half potting turns, but its an adjustment to the fact that it pressures ranges that are too polarised towards air or nuts ( and their actions on turn thenreveal their hand strength accordingly),
Always have an aim for your betsizes. Avoid making your holdings obvious though, and focus on board texture, what you represent, and villains possible range, and weighting for each hand type. Like if the most common hand he has on many turns is a weak pair + draw, and you know villain is a recreational weak tight player, you can relentlessly 1/2 pot turn and watch him fold with good odds to continue. You might however be doing the same thing and 1/2 potting turn into 2 people where the average hand on the flop is a pair, or a draw or a combination of the two, and the range of hands that will reraise your turn bet is very narrow. suddenly you are getting 4/1 when called, eg betting $5 into a pot of 10 and two callers = 5 into 20 , 20/5 = 4..
so assuming they don't fold (which is fine), you can be in a great spot with a wide range of two pairs/ overpairs and nut flush draws.
I like the exploit what I believe is my image in villain's eyes on river here then, so if the flush draw wihffed and I'm expecting villain to hold something like top pair top kick, i'l maybe pot or 1.2x pot river sometimes, repping a busted flush draw or a backdoor that hit river. People hate folding, and hate giving credit. I wouldn't worry about balance against non regs.
oh look, I wrote an essay again ;_;
Great video by the way! Would love more database reviews! :D
This video is great. I haven't finished it yet as I paused so often to set up reports in HM2, which I've only had for a few weeks (once I figured out how to make it work on Bovada). And then I looked at some spots in my HH that I feel are leaks, including the same river scenario covered in the video. Of all the videos I've seen on RIO (dozens) I think this one got me doing more away-from-the-table work than any other so far. Which is great!
Glad you liked it!
Hi Steve. Based in no small measure on your video (thanks!) I modified my HUD to the following for Bovada NLHE:
Name #Hands Net$
VPIP PFR 3B: 3Bet Call3Bet 4BR: 4BetRange
PF EP MP CO BU SB BB SQ: SB BB
AF AF / AGG%–Flop Turn River SD: WWSF% WTSD% WonSD%
CB Flop Turn River Fold CB: Flop Turn River
BBu FoldSteal 3Bet SBu FoldSteal 3Bet BvB Fold_Steal Resteal
The above text is from a cheat sheet I keep in a little window while playing until I get the stats memorized. While don't list out the actual HM2 stat names I think it's pretty self explanatory. I can provide the actual HM2 stat names if anyone wants to know precisely. Note that "PF" by position stats are unopened preflop raise, not simply PFR.
The color codings are basically orange = low, green = solid, red = high. So, for example, my VPIP of 20 is (barely) solid but my PFR a little low. Etc.
(For a lot of stats I use 5 color codings to identify fish, whales, maniacs, nits, etc. but my personal stats don't hit any of the outliers).
The values I use for color coding ranges are mostly Leak Buster based. I can provide what I use if anyone is interested. The gray numbers are for stats that I don't have a real good notion what good color coding ranges might be. Those stats are:
Turn Fold to CB
River Fold to CB
BB Fold to BTN Steal
BB 3Bet vs BTN
SB Fold to BTN Steal
SB 3Bet vs BTN
BB Fold vs SB Steal
BB Resteal vs SB
Do you have suggestions for low, solid, high color coding ranges for those stats?
Thanks in advance if you can provide suggestions.
Hey,
Sorry for the slow reply. I don't really have any great #s to give you as I haven't done any color coding. I'll post a quick thought or two for each.
Turn fold to cbet - 50 is definitely too high, 30 too low. Important to consider river frequencies as well though when barreling.
River fold to cbet - same as above. Earlier street fold #s can help decide what the starting range looks like and so what cards are likely to hit/miss them
BB Fold to BTN steal - depends on the standard open in your games. Some strong players defend super wide so not sure there is a too low here if opens are small. Something like 50 is definitely too high.
BB 3bet vs btn - 10% low, 20% high but there's a range of reasonable strategies imo
SB Fold to BTN steal - depends if they do any calling or just raise/fold. Anything over 85 too high, not sure on the low side.
SB 3b - anything over 25 is definitely too high, too low depends on how much calling there is.
BB Fold vs SB steal - 50 is definitely way too high (like steal any 2 high), good players defend super wide so not sure on too low.
BB resteal vs sb - similar to BB vs button
You could definitely get more exact than what I've given but at least a start.
Thank you for the response.
Meantime I also found this link, which has some data re Fold to Turn CBet % (and some other stats). No idea how old the article is, though.
http://hm2faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/1991/PLUGGING+LEAKS+-+BASED+ON+STAT+RANGES
Thanks Steve, would watch more database reviews
Dear Steve, this is a general question related to when you discuss 3bet ranges from the BB versus the BTN.
I assume (based on some of your other excellent videos) that you would advocate 3bet then 5bet jamming TT+, AK, with perhaps a couple of combos of extras against active 4betters in this spot.
If that's the case, I'm struggling to understand how you can have such a wide 3betting range here. Given that your 3betting range needs to be somewhere around 60/40 - depending on sizing - "bluffs" (hands you're folding to a 4bet) versus hands you're 5betting, wouldn't that mean you can only 3bet around 10% in this spot?
Isn't 3betting more than that, as you're suggesting, going to be exploitable?
don't play 5bet or fold vs a 4bet, you need to call some hands.
Thanks - is there any debate among good players on the EV of 3betting a wider range + flatting 4bets OOP, versus 5bet or fold? Or is there a strong consensus on this?
I think pretty much all good players flat 4bets sometimes, though I'm not as up to date as some on what the top regs are doing.
Hi, just recently found your db review videos and they are helping me very much. So thanks for that.
I have compared my own stats with the videos and your recommendations, most of them are quite good, ond the rest are goodish.. One stat that really pops out is fold to 3bet, I use pokertracker (some of the stats go by different names on HEM) and '2bet PF & fold' on my hud, my stat is 51% on that. But my overall 'fold to PF 3bet' is 77%... I don't know which one is the correct one? If it's The overall fold to PF 3bet my stat is way out of line.. Hope it reaches you still after 2 years.
I don't use PT but I believe 2bet PF & fold is the stat you want. If I remember right the overall fold to PF 3bet also counts those times where it goes raise/3bet in front of you and then you fold.
Exactly. And I compared it with other regs on my stake so it should be about right. Thanks again for great content & for the answer!
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