Database Review of Ariana
Posted by Steve Paul
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hi steve!!! those Agg frequency% on HM2 and AFq on PT4 are the same stats???
on PT4 this is the formula: (Number of Times Player Bet on the Flop + Number of Times Player Raised on the Flop) / (Number of Times Player Called on the Flop + Number of Times Player Folded on the Flop + Number of Times Player Bet on the Flop + Number of Times Player Raised on the Flop)
I checked my database and I have a way to high AFq numbers (43/44/42) but in fact I think Im way to passive... (my cbets are even lower 45/42/41 and x/r are 7/11/4) so IDK how I can have those numbers so high...
Different formulas for HM2 and PT4.
And yes, afaik 45/42/41 in PT4 seems to be more on the passive side.
Hi, Steve! Can you share your hud? would be nice. thx
Not sure I've posted it before or not, but here's a link: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B1B0NQEce3NzN2FpM3phUnlYQU0
Hi Steve Paul. I love your videos. I have a easy question for you, but something I have hard to think about. I play on stars and have 12bb/100h on 25NL on 200 000 hands. I dont want to change my play to much but I think I found something I can change. But first I wont to ask you before changeing.
I did check my database for the first time and i found out that the playerpool fold to CB on flopp 34%, turn 32% and river 54%. I Think I should bet 100% of all rivers about 80% of pot and it will make me more money beacuse they overfold river? But I really dont know if this is right and how I can think. How often should they call river if I bet 60-80% of pot on river and how is the match about it. Is they overfolding? Im so bad at this things.
Thanks
A bet needs to work b/(1+b) of the time to break even. So if you bet 80% pot, then it needs to work 0.8/(1+0.8) = 44.4% of the time, so yes if people are folding 54% of the time on the river they are overfolding and you should be very willing to bluff the river. A couple important things to remember are
1. 54% is an average, so there are likely some boards/textures that people are not overfolding and some they are way overfolding.
2. If your hand has some showdown value then even if a bluff is "+EV" it may not be better than checking. Make sure compare the EV of bluffing to the EV of checking.
Hey Steve,
assuming Villain folds 55.6% or more, we can say that no matter what, when we Bet OTR every time with any 2 cards 80% Pot we can asume that we brake more or less even in the Long run as our Bet Needs to work 44,4% of the time.
So, what do we have to concider beeing in the Villain Position. How must a Fold to CBet OTR look like. Can we even say how it must look like as we have to try to be indifferent. Assuming we Play against a reg who knows that i must fold 55.6% of the time, he knows that he can Bluff every 3rd time (Is that true when his Bet has to work 44,4% of the time?) Does it mean for us that we have to Bluffcath every 3rd time? I do have a Problem to bring the numbers into game strategy.
Greets from Munich
I think you got the numbers mixed up a bit in your first paragraph. If villain folds 55.6% (which is 5/9) then that's how often our bluff works. An 80% pot bet that wins the pot 5/9 wins 5/9 * 1 - 4/9 * (0.8) = ~0.2 or 20% of the pot. The breakeven point is 1.25x pot for 55.6% river folds. Or maybe you meant to say if villain folds 44.4% of the time then 80% pot breaks even.
Also, possibly this is just a grammatical thing but there's a difference between "I'll bluff every third time" and "I'll bluff one third of the time". The first has a predictable element to it (I didn't bluff the last two times so this time I'll bluff) whereas it's generally preferable to use randomness (who cares whether I bluffed last time I'm going to bluff 1/3 of the time anyways).
So if you decide you're going to call in a spot 44.4% of the time, then have a random number generator pick a number from 1-9 and call if it's 1,2,3, or 4. Or look at your clock and if the last number is 1-4 then you call, 5-9 then you fold and if it's 0 then try to soul read :)
Hello Steve,
thank you for your quick reply. Yes I ment that when Villain folds 44,4% of the time we can always Bet every River with any 2 cards 80% Pot and we will brake even in the long run. Is that first of all correct or do I allready make an mistake here. This is of course only possible when Villain never ever adjusts, no matter if he is Bluff Catching or not, just folding the River 44,4% of the Time.
If im correct until now I do not understand what you mean with the BreakEven point is 1,25xpot for 55,6% river folds.
So if you say that if villain folds 55,6% then thats how often our bluff works, do you than asume that we always Bet 80% River with Air? I mean, what about when we bet the River with the nuts. Do we than just not take into account his RiverFolds as we do not want him to fold than and we do only just care about his RiverFolds when we asume Betting with our Bluffs? Do I get that right?
Thank you Steve for your time.
I tryed to get the answer out of my book Im reading next to writing here, the Theoretical Sound of Poker, but Im not sure if Im getting it right.
Let's assume we can only bet 80% pot or check for simplicity. If villain will fold 44.4% to a bet then betting a bluff will have EV 0, the same as checking. Villain is "unexploitable" in the sense that no matter how often we bluff we can't increase our EV
If villain will fold 55.6% to a bet (and promises not to adjust) then betting will win about 20% of the pot. Villain is exploitable because the more we bluff the higher our EV.
You can imagine a back and forth adjustment game where we bluff too much so villain starts to call a lot so we bluff less so villain calls left, etc. If we run this back and forth exploitation game indefinitely we'll get to a point where when we bet villain folds 44.4% of the time, so we can't do anything to exploit him. At the same time, we will adjust our betting range so he can't exploit us by calling more/less often. It turns out that for 80% pot we should have 5 value hands for every 4 bluffs (you can watch my video on value bet/bluff ratios for more info there)
As for our value hands if we assume again that we can only bet 80% pot or check, then his river fold doesn't really matter, we're going to bet (assuming it's not a case where he folds so often that our value hand isn't strong enough to value bet because he doesn't call with worse enough). In practice you might try to mess with your betsize vs opponents who fold river too much, but that's kind of outside the scope of this discussion.
Hope that helps. Haven't read that book so can't offer anything there.
Thank you for your Time Steve!
Great video. Super helpful to have a guideline for reasonable stats and some good exploits without having to comb through dozens of other videos, though through watching other content it seems my stats already mostly match up :) Thanks Steve
Hi Steve the JT hand at 28:00 you said we don't want to be checking all of our jacks here but how often should we be betting Jx? And which Jx should we bet?
thanks
I don't have any conclusive answers to this unfortunately. I would definitely check significantly more often than I bet and would lean more towards betting the stronger Jx than the weaker ones.
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