Constructing Preflop Ranges (part 2: Stack Sizes)
Posted by Sam Greenwood
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Love the videos!
Maybe in future videos on preflop 3betting, 4betting and 5betting ranges with 20bb+ stacks
Cheers
+1 something like 3b/fold or call vs 3b shove navigating under 30bb. Lucas Greenwood in one of his vid talked about 3b/fold at 25bb vs a 25-30bb. something like dealing with 16-30bb
would love also to see you making a full hand review of one of your deep run in SCOOP, going into details of hands.
I am in vegas for the WSOP and my hand histories are on my desktop at home. I might make a video of the SCOOP 10k, but won't do it until I am back home in mid-July
Personally I think there are a lot of live sweats/HH reviews on MTTs and these deep dive theoretical videos gives understanding to poker problem solving and teach the game better. Please continue with these MTT specific deep dives! (But of course balance your video making range with a live sweat and/or HH review occasionsally)
Must see for any MTT player. Do you plan on continuing this series ?
I know that is sample is small and is rough to use 16% for the villain there and also I can't see your stats in there and how you would approach pre flop baby suited aces and AQo/TT, against this guy so I put a more suited heavy range for you.
Villain opening
16% AA-55,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax2x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-Qx9x,JxTx-Jx9x
You calling
4%-14% - AK (3b against this loose guy) + some SCs
99-66,AQ-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,Ax5x,KxTx,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x
Flop
The flop is better for your range in my head but PPT gives us near 50%/50%, probably because he can have all premiums and you can't. If he isn't going off, his c-betting range should be near
Him betting: AA-99, AK-AQ, AdJx-AdTx,Ad9d-Ad2d, KdTd, QxJx-Qx9x, JxTx, Jx9x, 88, 55, 7x6x
(JJ I see some reasons to check there, but I don't think he will do it since it blocks a lot of the QJ combos that you may have)
You calling: 99-88,AQ,KQ,KdJd,KsJs,Ad9d,Ax8x,Ax5x,QxJx-QxTx,JsTs,JdTd,Ts9s,Td9d,9s8s,9d8d,8s7s,7x6x
Turn
Him betting: AA-QQ, AdKd, AQ, AdJd-Ad2d, KQ, KdTd, QxJx-Qx9x, JsTs, JdTd, Jd9d, 88, 55, 7x6x
You calling: 99-88,AQ,KQ,KdJd,Ad9d,Ax8x,QxJx-QxTx,8s7s,7x6x
River
Him checking: AxAy (without the diamond), AQ, QxJx-Qx9x (except those on diamonds), JsTs, 7x6x (without the diamond combo)
Him x/f: Qx9x, JsTs
You checking: QxTx
You bluffing: 99, Ax8x, 8s7s
His hand looks like a lot to QJ/air for me and I don't think is folding QJ OTR to bet QT profitably. Some opponents may fold but I don't think this one will. Of course he has some air to bet/bet/x but it is hard to compute here.
Sorry for the wall text but that is my thinking process to get to the river. If you see anything that doesn't fit please tell me. Good luck at WSOP (:
I think your preflop range is a little too tight for him and a little wide for me. On the flop looking just at raw equity in ranges isn't enough to determine whose range is stronger. Especialy in spots where one has a polarized bluffing strategy. In a hypothetical spot where one person has a range of nuts/air villain's range might be stronger OTR because he has a lot more weak bluff catchers that beat all our air eventhough he never has a very strong hand.
Using the range you assigned me OTR. I will be value shoving
88 3 combos, KQ 6 combos, 7x6x 4 combos, Ad9d, AdTd, AdJd, JdTd , QdTd, QdJd, Td9dd for 20 combos total.
You have me bluffing 99 Ax8x, 8x7x for 12 combos, which means I am bluffing a little too much for him to be indifferent to be calling and he should call w/ bluff catchers especially those w/ blockers like AdAx or QdAx.
I think in reality I am prob a little tighter OTB and maybe get to the river a little tighter, but either way I should probably be bluffing JJ/TT and if i am bluffing Qx, especially Qx w/o a diamond I am bluffing too much.
Yeah, I tend to play a little looser and forget that is not what everybody does. Hm, did not actually realised that your pre flop range does not had JJ-TT. That would be great candidates to bluff OTR having some great blocking value, also. Thank you very much for your answer.
Hi Sam you briefly touch on a possible discussion on how many bbs profitable you would want a reshove or raise/call to be after making assumptions on opponents range. Could you talk more about your thoughts on this including whether you would reaise call a little wider in tourneys where your roi wasn't as high and how your expected roi would sway your decision one way or the other. A lot of the decisions I see when running calcs in icmizer and hold em resources calcs will show .25 for example. In cash games if you ran that instance 100 times you would make 25bbs per 100 if I am understanding correct. I have a hard time deciding where my cutoff line should be in tournament poker.
I won't be able to answer this half as well as Sam but my understanding is, and as Sam touches on at the start of the video, ICM isn't linear so in some instances it will be correct to make a play with +0.1 cEV and others where choosing a better spot even though it's +0.6 cEV. so basically it's very hard to answer without specific instances. I believe ICMizer does try its best to answer this though in tournys with the possible input of avg tounry stack and people remaining.
The higher your ROI is in a tourney the higher your min edge should be in going allin. The paradox is some of your high ROI comes from identifying and taking +EV spots. An easy example is if someone opens and reshoving is +1bb and flatting is +1bb, but when you reshove you bust the tournament 10% more often you would rather flat. In reality problems aren't that simple. What if reshoving is +1.1 bbs and you bust 10% more often? What if reshoving is +1.2bbs etc. It's unclear if what you are sacrificing in BB/100 will be made up for in ROI.
The second question raises another paradox because in tougher tourneys you might want to deviate to the highest EV plays even if it means you bust more often, but playing tougher competition you also might want to play GTO instead of exploitative. This is a really tough problem to solve and it's an interesting conversation but I can't give definitive answers
HOMEWORK HAND: Very nice analysis from Raphael.
My question would be do you need a bluffing range here?
I can't think of many 8x hands you call with here pre flop despite what looks like a fairly large opening range and everything else has pretty nice show down you call two streets with that 'doesn't get there' OTR. 99-JJ make good candidates actually for a bluff - so they would be my answer to your Q 'which hands should I be bluffing with?'
QTcc seems a clear check back to me, along with all other Qs in your range.
Value shoving diamonds, QK and sets.
- Looking forward to your views Sam!
I agree 99-JJ are good hands for me to bluff here. "My question would be do you need a bluffing range here?" Of course you do. Both to get paid off more often w/ value hands and to win the pot when you have the worst hand otr.
I take delight for correctly identifying which hands to bluff with and take on board why we need a river bluffing range - of course, now you've said it, it makes perfect sense.
Sam, Will you continue this serie on constructing preflop range vs stack size ? for let's Say 18-30bb where you Will adress raise/fold 3b/fold, 3b/call, reshove, 4bet given stack size around the table. Can you give some advice to work on that area on ouf side. Thanks
Hey Sam, big fan here, i really like your videos and your style of play.
I cant understand how u got to that BTN Fold 21% the shove is BE for SB when SB holds a 33% equity hand, i really think that it is wrong (around 20 min).
I did some math here, can u check it?
Facts:
BTN Fold = SB +3700
BTN CALL/SB Loose = SB -9200 chips (400 that SB already put doesnt count)
BTN CALL/SB WIN = SB +11700 (given his stack behind is 9200 and final pot is 20900, the profit is +11700)
Formula:
F = % BTN must fold to be a BE shove.
0 = + ((F) x BTN Fold) + ((1-F) x 0,33 x BTN CALL/SB WIN) - ((1-F) x 0,66 x BTN CALL/SB loose)
0 = + (F) 3700 + (1-F) x 0,33 x 11700 - (1-F) x 0,66 x 9200
0 = 3700 F + (1-F) x 3861 - (1-F) x 6072
3700 F + 3861 - 3861 F - 6072 + 6072 F = 0
5911 F - 2211 = 0
5911 F = 2211
F = 2211/5911 = 37,4%
Thanks !
I don't have time to redo the math right now, but just letting you know I have seen this post and will reply later.
I did the math wrong. I usually do the math counting stack sizes, here the first term is based on how much profit the play makes, the second is based on what my stack size will be if I double and the third is based on what my new stack size would be (this is why there is no third term it would be(1-P(F).660)).
I double checked your math and it's good.
Even though my conclusion isn't as extreme as it appears in the slide. The general point still applies. To take an endpoint if one opened 100% otb he'd need to be calling your reshove 37% of hands for you to be unable to shove a hand like 32s in the bb
great video Sam
@16:00 what is your method for calculating the nb of combos they have for re-shoving given we hold 2 specific cards here?
@23:43 I think there is a slight mistake on the slide for the BE BU fold % for the SB and BB. I believe this should be the same for both the SB and BB at 37.4% as they effectively start with the same stack (9700)
Hey Sam, loving the video series so far.
I have a question about the idea of shoving being better than minraising at super short stacks. If you run a calculation on HoldemResources Calculator with stacks of ~10bb and both the shoving and minraising options available, it tends to suggest at least a little bit of minraising in a lot of positions, particularly early position. Do you think there's reason to believe that minraising instead of shoving in EP could be part of optimal GTO strategy at short stacks? I'm tempted to experiment with it.
I think HRC gives bad flat calling strategies for your opponents, which overstates the EV of minraising.
That's very true, I didn't consider that. Thanks for the reply.
Is it possible to change the slide colours on future videos? White/Black is really difficult for the eyes and it feels like my retinas are being burnt out, making concentration difficult. May I suggest blue background with yellow font?
worst hand id shove for value on the river is KQ. Also i understand we would be overbluffing if we turn Qc10c into a bluff... but villian doesnt know that so I don't think it matters that much. We can rep flushes very well because this is how we would play alot of FDs so I think i would still turn Q10 into a bluff. Thanks for the vid i know im super late.
If we turn Q10 into a bluff, I'm having trouble thinking of hands that they'll fold that we aren't already beating. With only 1PSB behind, I can't imagine we fold out any K's. We'd fold out QJ, and maybe aq but if they have the ace of diamonds they might still want to call with that hand.
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