Constructing Pre-Flop Ranges (part 3)
Posted by Sam Greenwood
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Hi. Great video
Is there a chance for live sessions 6 tables?
minute 30:00 where u estimate that hero realizes 100% equity. u put it into a formula of:
0.36 * 0.475 ( 6 + 6 + 0.5 + 1.125) = 2.33 BBs postflop
in not really sure the formula represents the equity realization correctly. i see it like this:
when hero c-bets he gets called 47.5% of time and realizes 100% equity. if this is true then in total hero should be realizing close to 200% of equity because when we count in the times villain folds and we win the pot it adds up to equity realization.
secondly it seems counter intuitive that when hero c-bets and villain calls then hero realizes 100% of equity because our bluffs are very seldom good or oudraw the opponent. its true that hero´s value hands add back some equity realization (basically because we are bluffing 65o then our AA gets paid out more often and this adds equity realization to the whole range. im not sure if this is correct to say but 65o gets on its account some of the BBs that AA wins)
but basically when: villain folds(1) + villain calls(2) = should add up to 100% equity realization. right now in my eyes the formula represents that hero realizes 100% equity when villain calls which i think cannot be true. i see it like this: (1) + (2) = 100% equity realization. ur formula is:
(2) = 100% equity realization. then if we add to ur formula first part(1) the grand total for equity realization should be getting close to 200% (its a guess, im not entirely sure how to calculate this number precisely)
The .475 is not how our CB gets called, but how often our 3B gets called.
One way we realize a lot of equity postflop is getting villain to fold postflop when we have >20% equity.
In this video we are comparing two strategies to each other, so if we change R the difference EV of playing postflop will change proportionally for both strategies. It might shift enough that the conclusion I come to in this video is not true for these exact hands, but my general point that playing less hands more profitably may be better than maximizing the number of hands that have an EV > 0.
i actually made a mistake in the logic with the c-betting as its not part of the formula.
and i was thinking that fold equity is part of the realization equity. but im starting to see maybe its not like this. ur estimated 100% equity realization is purely for postflop. would u mind going into detail about this. u estimate, that on certain flops villain will fold a better hand etc. maybe u have run some numbers and have a rough estimate for on avg across all the flops how often u will be c-betting and how often villain will be folding. so far from what i have seen all the equity realization models are pretty simplistic. and i have wondered if somebody has ever tried to add many variables etc. or maybe its a useless practice.
interested to hear ur thoughts on it
As the amount of equity we realize in a 3B pot increases the more attractive three betting 65o is vs. flatting it. In this case I chose 100% as an estimate I don't know how accurate an estimate it is, but I do know that if we get to realize more equity the conclusion of this video still stands.
I concluded that peeling 65o was worth 1/8th of ante and folding 54o was worth 0bbs. So combined that strategy was worth 1/8th of a BB.
I concluded that the difference between 3B 65o and 54o was worth around 1/5th of ante if we realize 100% of our equity postflop.
That means if we realize ~5/8 of our equity in a three bet pot we should be indifferent between Strategy 1(C 65o, F 54o) and Strategy 2(3B 65o, C 54o). If our R is lower than 5/8 Strategy 1 is better if our R is higher Strategy 2 is better.
If our R is higher when we peel the BB then the R we need to realize in a 3B pot will also increase.
hi at 24'30 is it the defense that you would recommend to defend against a 3bet bouton v bb ?
It's just that it doesn't matches with my button range (as i open 50-55% maybe i'm too nit?) and defend all of those hands would only make me fold on a 3bet 30% of the time.
Also, for the video you consider that we are 100bb effective ? do you like to 3bet merge in this position ? what would be a good ratio bluff/value ? thx lol
Do you use a tool to get the exact % difference how much it blocks certain hands ?
OK so I am going to now more formally build my BB defence/flat ranges. I'll be constructing them for use against different Btn steal frequencies, but I'm guessing that due to sample size issues for the most part I'll be using one as a default.
Naturally this is a lot of work. Your formula in this video was a real eye opener. Now doing this with a stove/excel spreadsheet is going to be a slog. Would using Poker Snowie or HRC yield similar results, but in a more efficient manner?
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