Thanks Raphael! Glad you liked it.

3:53 I would tend to 3b both ATo and ATs in that spot. I might flat some weaker suited Ax.

6:07 I would go with a Nash calling range if I believed button was shoving Nash but in reality almost nobody does. We don't even need him to be shoving Qx to make this a call...vs a range of Ax,Kx and 22+ I'm making a significant amount by calling AQo.

yeah I certainly agree with the reasoning that you are making $ by calling AQ if he is shoving too wide, which everyone does otb.

but in this "winner take all" spots, the variance of facing pretty likely 60/40 ish spot doesn't denies a bunch of the EV of the call ? I mean, it is obvious that you need to face some variance in this 3 handed bubble situation, but are different kinda of spots that will lead to certain levels of variance. Shoving the button a bit wider than Nash, for example, has a smaller EV than calling this AQo hand but will have a smaller variance in average. Shoving Nash would provide certainly +EV plays if you trial the spot one million times but you are playing it only one time. So, how far, in average, you are from the actual EV of the play should dictate as much the EV.

What is the bottom of your calling range on this situation ?

the AQo spot. I dont think that this is a good call at all. When I put this hand to icmmizer and get him any two card range you can profitable call 88+ maximum. I put 40/40/20 payout structure which I think is correct. Is there something what I missing?

Raphael - I don't really understand your post. The likelihood of me facing a 60/40 is built into the ev of the call. I don't get into this specific spot a million times but I have made millions of ev decisions in my career and maximising each one is going to lead to the best results. That said I would not be calling AJo in this spot.

maxtere - Thanks for the question. The problem with running this hand as a straight ICM calc is that it computes your call range with the alternative being folding and chopping the tournament based on chip counts at the end of the hand. For a situation like this it is important to consider the fact that I am forced to keep playing until someone busts and by push/folding repeatedly based on a single hand ICM model I will blind out very frequently. I don't use ICMizer but on HRC there is an option to simulate 'x' future hands and build that into the results of the simulation and using a 5 future hand calculation the call range vs atc is 66+,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+. By extrapolation it is reasonable to assume that if you had a quantum computer and could simulate 50 future hands the call range would be slightly wider vs an any two card shove range.

Stephen, from a standard game theory stand point making the most of EV in each decision will lead to the maximisation of long term EV and the 60/40 is built on the EV of the call. Beside that, when you make a call that is based on a read that srx is overshoving the spot and you need to overcall, game theory isn't dictating what should be done. This can be solven through bayesian methods since the weight parameters from the EV equation should be designed through a probability distribution that is based on player type.

One of the few hypothesis of game theory is that both players are, in the economics sense, rational. If both are rational, they should shove and call the "Nash" ranges. You calling a range that isn't optimal and him shoving a range that isn't optimal will, in most cases, increase the variance of the situation. If you choose to overcall the spot, you have to deal with the tradeoff between EV and variance.

I set the spot on HRC:

Please correct me if I am wrong on setting something from payout or stack sizes, image isn't that clear in my laptop. Sorry if my post looked rude or something, clearly that is not the intention. Love your videos.

I don't think the variance of the situation is particularly relevant...I just want to maximise ev. As for the screenshot you might need to update your calculator or something because you need to be using FGS for a hand like this.

I wasn't using FGS, sorry. Why do you think variance isn't relevant in bubble times (or this specific bubble) ? Suppose a third player that doesn't have experience as you on satties, would you be adjusting ranges ? Like avoiding call srx more often and shove on him bvb close to "nash".

Break even point for AQo

bn 19.8%, 44+ Ax+ KQs
sb 5.1%, 99+ AQs+ AQo+

when you are +0.09% equity ahead

You are assuming that he is shoving much wider than this, how much ? My guess is something around (the bottoms are pretty debatable)

bn 32.7%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ QTs+ QJo JTs
sb 5.4%, 99+ AJs+ AQo+

when you are +0.26% equity ahead (this is what I wanted to say about the "60/40", if you are facing a range that is way wider than the break even point of AQo your equity increase is much less significant than the variance increase if you are calling more often since you are assuming that he is shoving wider)

If the first scenario occurs, you bust 34.4% of the time.

If the second scenario is what is happening, srx is shoving 40% more often OTB than the break even point for you call AQo and you are calling around 14% more. This implies that you bust 32.82% of the time.

So, this spot (he shoves 32% and you call) will occur 14% more often than the first and you will only bust 1.58% of the time less. Looking only from an EV perspective I am pretty fine with calling, but the risk-reward scenario of the overcalling strategy seems thin to me.

I apologize for taking so long on this topic not having the same experience you have on satties. Thanks for your time.

Well since he showed up with K5o in the actual hand he obviously shoves at least that wide. I'd expect him to be shoving around 40-45%.
In your example if I bust less often in the second scenario, why is the variance higher?
Regardless, the expectation is what matters...I see no reason to be passing up on +ev spots with 9bbs 3 handed vs high stakes sng regs.

you bust 1.58% less often but the spot occur 14% more frequently, so the overall likelihood of you busting is higher if you are overcalling, since you face the shove/call spot in a higher frequency.

thank you for the answers, good luck at the tables.

Thanks! More to come =)

Thanks.

Our stacks were kinda awkward for him to 4b so I expect him to flat much more often. I would have folded to a 4b with ATo there. I chose to 3bet because I think I am significantly ahead of his peeling range and it doesn't play great multiway.

Hey Jean-Pascal, thanks!
Yeah, I don't the play myself...I didn't notice it in the video. I think I mentioned one of the previous videos in this series that it was my first session back online since the WSOP and I was getting 3b a ton out of the bb the whole day so I was wondering if this was a new trend and probably started over adjusting too quickly to combat it. I think it was likely just coincidence and people had a lot of big hands vs me in the bb that day.

Hey Capitano, glad you enjoyed.
Most of my bluff hands would be Axss or possibly AJ. I'm not sure I agree about our opponent having way more nutted hands. He likely doesn't have KK/AA/AK given pre flop and I don't see him flatting a bunch of Tx that I am not opening myself utg. I would rather use a Kx hand to c/c as it blocks his most likely hands to call 3 barrels.

Hey StrechyClaws, thanks for the kind words...that makes me happy to hear. Next live event for me is WPT Nottingham, next shr will be Prague.

Hey mister_blk,
The opener is very loose which is why I reshoved, usually I would be calling.

Hey razios, thanks for the question.
This is a really thin reshove and probably not good. If he is opening over 20% or so I think it would be profitable but given his stats it seems unlikely even though its a small sample. The 10bb stack behind is actually a good thing for us though since we lose less when he wakes up with a better hand.

Also ~22 min You c/r 3bet pot 257w possible FD. Dont think its the best option here that deep vs reg on a pretty dry board that deep in early stage! Mostly You will be called once w OPs and folded on Your bet on the turn.. Especially if he knows You are a good reg!