As far as I'm aware if Pio chose this line for value, it would have a bluffing range, even if his bluffs are mediocre. Its a basic tenant of GTO poker. This would actually be a really interesting spot to evaluate. I'm going to start my next video with it.

Thank you!

I appreciate the compliment!

There is doubt in my mind about how to play these spots, so take my explanations as informed opinions rather than truth.

On KJ74, my range is going generally going to be in bad shape. I have two pair here maybe 5% of the time and I have lots of draws. This makes me think that if I raise to a large sizing, my opponent will often times jam one pair along with some bluffs to make my draws -EV to raise. If I raised to smaller sizing, he would jam over the raise with a smaller frequency, since jamming is the best outcome for my nut hands, I'd prefer him to jam more often.

On Q643ss, I think my range is much stronger here than my opponents, not all players raise 75s, 64s, 43s, Q6s in cutoff, wherease I'm defending all of those hands from the big blind. I don't expect him to react to any size raise here by jamming, so the smaller range lets me expand my value range slightly and generate more fold equity on rivers. Its a similar situation on T622, I expect my opponent to have very few nut hands compared to my range, so I don't need to rep such a narrow range.

If this is something that interest folks, I could expand upon this in a future video with Piosolver.

on kj74, why is raising larger and getting jammed on more often better? it benefits value hands but hurts draws. Bc you have value hands more often u happy to get jammed on? how do i do this mathematically? Thx! always greaat vids that open my eyes to new stuff

If he choses to play jam/fold here, its a pretty amazing spot for my nut hands. I win 100bbs from his one pair hands and some draws and fold the rest of his draws (all of which have good equity). And (Hopefully at higher frequency than would have bluff caught the smaller amount).
It isn't so good for my draw 8 - out straight draws, because I'm going to be forced to fold. With my gutshots the big raise is a better situation because I won't be folding as much equity when getting jammed on. Clearly this is player dependent, but if I can get allin frequently with 90% equity on a drawy turn then that's a good outcome.

Thank you! I appreciate the idea :). I'll see if I can make it into a video.
As to the comment version: I usually use an equity calculator/CREV to give my opponents hands specific odds when calling. Generally using the backdoor flushdraws to design frequencies helps to.

He has little or no equity, but thinks that my range is primarily two pair and sets and that I will be bet folding this river. (Which is actually very reasonable against an average tag).

Yeah i had similar thoughts as StrugLife, glad you cleared that out - it definetely makes sense if he's expecting you to vbet there that thinly.

Very nice video, really enjoyed both 'Calling BB' videos.

Of course, I have some hands that I'm not shoving when after raising turn. Actually something like 76 is probably negative EV to shove the river, (but +EV to raise the turn). Its a little wonky, but I don't expect my opponent to very often have a draw after bet calling the turn. The Th blocks a lot of his backdoor semibluffs from the flop.

how do you determine 76 is +ev to raise the turn? I think its decent hand to bluff cuz its not strong enough to call but has equity, but curious how u know this. Also how do you determine you have such good FE on turn/river that turning 98hh into bluff is best on turn?

Hi FBB,

The basic idea is that hands with lots of nut equity are always going to be the most profitable to semibluff with. Something like 9h8h has 40% equity against an overpair, so its probably a mistake to try to make this hand indifferent to semibluffing. If its indifferent, then every other hand is substantially negative, meaning that I have exactly 2 combos of profitable turn bluff raises. (98hh, J8hh).

On 76 in my head its the first hand into a raising range, because it has between 4-8 outs and no showdown value. It will always be more profitable to raise than a hand with less outs, so my opponent probably is choosing to make a weaker hand indifferent to raising.

However all of this is assumption and we'll look at this hand more indepthly with pio :)

Thanks for the comment Garrett.

On one hand, I think given that the majority of his river calling range will be two pair and straights and I decrease both ranges relatively significantly that it should be a + EV bluff.

On the other hand, I do have the 9h which will decrease the number of hands that may have bet called the turn. as draws, so I do decrease his bluffing range somewhat as well.

Given that both you and Johnny are iffy about this hand, I'm going to put in PIO solver and see what happens. :).

Thanks Pamela

Thanks Ddog!

It could conceivably work to 3-bet unprofitable calls, especially if you 3-bet very little (e.g. 3-bet range AA and 1-combo of 32o. 32o will be profitable unless you are playing recs) or face players who over fold.

In general I prefer suited cards, because they hold their R better against all ranges. I'm going to flop a flush draw 13% of the time along with similar ratios of top pair/nuts to J4o type hands. Generally the weakest are close to 0 EV calls so I just need a slightly profitable 3-bet to justify 3-betting over calling.

There's a fine line between checking back air with the intention of folding and never betting air. It's possible that his check back range would overfold and he would underfold to the c/r. In fact unless he is mixing here it's very likely. That's why I was surprised. It's most likely exploitable and non standard.

Thanks Paid to Laid!