Bluffing Out of Position
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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On 28:15 you say "We bet pot so hes gonna have to fold about half the time". Could you please explain why this is. Because he is getting 2:1, so he should be calling to be good 1/3 of the time. But how do you get to the right calling frequency?
If he doesn't want to have my bluffs make money and also wants my big hands to win the minimum, he needs to call just often enough to make a bluff be 0 EV. When I bet full pot that number is (thepot) / (mybet + the_pot) = 50%.
Thanks a lot! And to a great video, would love to see more. Watched all your latest videos and like the themes. Keep the good job up!
During the first hand you talked about how you're not willing to stop bluffing completely but to reduce your bluffing frequency from ~30% to around 10-15%, because you want to maintain the idea of breakeven+ bluffcatches in villains mind. I get the reasoning and it makes sense.
But then on the second hand you said that your 3betting range is going to be really wide againts that specific villain because he folds to 3bets so often and that you probably should have checked the flop because of how wide your range is.
Isn't there a bit of a condradiction? The way I see it, our approach should almost be the other way around: to be really careful with our preflop frequencies and to not care as much on those river spots, because preflop spots occur way more frequently and the exploitative strategies you choose to take preflop are way more transparent compared to river strategies. It's very easy for villain to see one light 3betting hand at showdown, make a note of it and adjust immediately after (let's say you show up with something like 65o), whereas on the river, it's way harder to make such reads and it's way less obvious what you're doing.
I was wondering if you could elaborate a bit more on how you approach these situations. I've never really understood the "gotta be careful with exploiting too much" explanation on these river situations that occur really rarely and your actual strategy is so hard for your opponent to define with much confidence at all. And how all this compares to preflop exploits.
Thanks!
Hi Samu,
Great question! You're right they do seem contradictory. The underlying question is
What hands will have the most influence on my opponent's strategy?
Generally I think my opponent is more likely to remember big pots where he lost. To most players making bad call-downs is psychologically akin to touching a hot stove. You remember the pain and are likely to adjust your thinking in the future from experiencing the situation. This leads me to conclusion I need to soften the psychological blow of losing on the river even against players who tend to over-call. The worst outcome for me for the player to switch to an always fold strategy and for me never to bluff.
Compare this to a preflop situation where the pot is small and his strategy is likely memorized. It's going to take a bigger deviation from optimal for him to notice and some multi-tabling tags won't adjust for months, because they play many tables and can't model preflop spots based on opponents.
Makes sense. Thanks for the reply!
Nice Video!
The bit around 24:00 is really good
What should your fold to river cbet be roughly?
Traditionally alpha, but if your opponents don't bluff than the f-to-R will rise because their hands block a portion of the 1-alpha range.
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