Bluff Catching the River
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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The KJo call at 14:15 - you seem to brush it off as a very easy call (given you're near the top of your range) but this is a spot vs a recreational player that I'm normally sitting on the river vs a recreational player and wondering what they're bluffing/betting with, especially since you mention near the beginning that he isn't opening super wide (thus no 3bet pre), so there aren't a ton of Jx and 7x hands which would be the obvious bluffs, and he can have quite a few two pair, set, flush, and straight combos (depending on if he's the kind of player who would bet a hand like K9o on the flop just because he has a pair, not sure if he's this kind of recreational player). I know this is a spot where you have to call with SOME hands especially vs regs, but vs some kinds of recreational players who probably aren't finding enough bluffs do you find it a spot where perhaps you can "overfold" to this kind of a river bet and stick to calling more KT/K9/K8/AT and flush type hands that block more of his two pair and set value bets? (Obviously not since you ended up calling, but I'm just wondering more on your thought process here on the river, maybe vs a slightly different kind of recreational player who wouldn't valuebet QQ?) Thanks!
Weird, I thought I responded to this.
I expect players to realized that my hand range here is mainly tens. Whether they choose to either bluff a ten or valuebet hands that beat tens, KJ will be a profitable call. The only player type where KJ is an unprofitable call is a player who thinks I will fold a ten, but still doesn't bluff.
Great vid!
Thanks Daniel!
28:00
Q8s on 865r Js 5r
Do you ever consider c/raising here with a pair because we block twopair/sets?!
Thanks Datp for the comment!
Only against players who overfold, 98 and 87 are better check raises because they block more combos of value hands.
and how exactly do you know/evaluate that practically on the table? specific stat?
I find it hard to implement that "general guideline"
It's better as a powerpoint presentation with examples, but those are good starting points.
7:30: I think his valuerange has way more combos that u sad.. Is it something like: AA, KK, JJ, 88, QT, AK, KJ, J8, K6, half(?) of the AQ AT combos and maybe couple combos of 86 and KQ?
His bluffing hands could be like: backdoor hearts, Q9, T9, 79 wo spades.
Nice video format!
Thanks for the kind words!
I put in the hands that you suggested into a value range and then I added what I thought would be his bluffs. The key assumptions are that he would never stop bluffing on this card and he was opening up and barreling Q9o and T9o. If this is false, then I should fold.
Board: AdKsJh8s6h
Range 1: AA-KK,JJ,88,AKs,KJs,K6s,QTs-Q9s,J8s,T9s,T7s,97s,75s,AKo,KJo,QTo-Q9o,J8o,T9o,Qh7h,Qs7s,Qh5h,Qs5s,Qh4h,Qs4s,Qh3h,Qs3s,[50]AQs,ATs,AQo,ATo[/50]
Range 2: Kh4d
Equity 1: 53.982% Win 1: 53.982% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 46.018% Win 2: 46.018% Tie 2: 0.000%
Great vid and good to learn from your mistakes/good plays.
Thanks Something Easy!
Hello,
26th min A9off hand: You said it's going to be a mistake to call river with A9off. I ran some sims and it's snap call everytime
29th min Q8s hand: Ran a simulation here as well. It's a call you should make almost everytime blocking overpairs.
Hi Misstakes,
Thanks for your results :) That makes perfect sense from a PIO perspective, they are both in a 1 - alpha calling range.
The question we need to ask in game is how does my opponent's bluffing range compare to PIO?
In either situation, the T98 board against reg and the 865J against a rec its likely that my opponent doesn't have the same range construction on the river as PIO on the river. So we need to be careful extending a PIO sim into these situations.
Hello, I agree with you. Do you believe midstakes field underbluff that kind of boards? I believe most of then study pio a lot. Do you agree?
I think the reg is going to struggle to overbluff on the ten. Really tough to compose a bluffing range on the best card in the deck for his ranges. I consider it a special case.
Rec is never similar PIO so I just play a well honed exploitative game here.
5:00 J9 hand if he bluffs all J8,QJ,and Q8s combos as well as some missed flush draws how much should we be calling? Like what percent of our range?
Would it be enough to call A9s,J9s,AT and KT? I've never really understood the whole 1 minus alpha thing despite watching a few videos on RIO about it so i don't really understand how to calculate how much I should be calling in various spots. Could you explain that a little bit?
Edit:For all these spots I don't understand how you decide what frequency you want to call. I know you are adding more bluffcatchers to your range when you think your opponent is overbluffing but deciding how many combos to call is confusing.
7:50 would calling K2-K5 everytime and Ax+ be okay here? And just fold the stronger Kx since they all block some draw?
10:40 A9 hand, do you think it would be too thin for villain to bet bet shove KK here? You talked about how TT could be a very profitable triple barrel if people are calling down light, how many light calls would you need to see from villain before you decided to barrel off with TT here?
thank you, sorry for the long post :)
@1-alpha, This is easier to understand flipped. If I bet one pot as a bluff, I need my opponent to fold 50% of the time for my bluff to show a profit ((Bet/Pot) / (1 + Bet/Pot)). If he folds more than this, I should always bluff and if fold less than this, I should never bluff. But what happens if my opponent calls exactly 50% of the time (1- alpha)? Then I make 0 EV on my bluffs (neither winning nor losing). This presents a problem for me, because before I knew whether or not I should bluff. Now I don't care which option I choose,both make 0 EV for me. Mathematically, this is my opponent highest expectation strategy if he told me his strategy.
@J9 We'd be calling about 50% of our river range, really close to KTo+ depending a little bit on whether or not we slowplayed our two pair combos
@K4 I'd go slightly tighter here against most opponents. K4, K3, K2 with non flush draw 2,3,4s should be most profitable calls as they have no blockers. The other combos of kings are all block some draws. Ax is a snap call of course.
@A9 Yes most 6-max regs won't bet 3-streets here with their overpairs. We are used to playing tight ranges are 3-barrelling here in any other position is too light. At TT, I'd need to see a player who liked to hero call with low fold to cbets. The hero calling is really the key. If he doesn't call Ace high, TT is a bad bet.
Hey Tyler thanks for the response, I haven't really done this but with the 1-alpha thing does that mean we should always look at our entire range on the river and call 50% of our range assuming villain is betting pot? And call more if he is overbluffing and less if he is nitty? For example I think if he bets pot on the river then he is in theory supposed to have 2:1 ratio of value to bluffs, if he has an 8:5 ratio now what percent of our range are we supposed to call? 62%?
The K4 hand is the deuce flush blocker really relevant here? Since unless villain is opening really wide he should have very few deuces. Is it just that you think we would be calling too much if we call all K2 combos?
A9 so do you think KK should usually be a shove otr or not? Would you still need to see villain calling Ace high to barrel off here?
Hi Taiga,
@1-alpha, exactly, if he has an 8 to 5 ratio instead of 2:1, then we would always fold our bluff catchers and only call hands in his value range.
@2 of spades The 2 of spades is relevant only in the ordering of hands. K2 without flush draw will have more equity in this pot. Maybe not much more, but always some. In close situations, I want to make sure I call the hands that maximize my opponents bluffing range. K2 (2 of spades) is slightly worse than that peak.
@No, I think KK is very slim against non calling station opponents here.
What is your calling efficiency with this filter?
.87 filtered for check-calling flop, turn, and river with worse than top pair.
I don't understand, if he has an 8:5 ratio of value to bluffs then he is overbluffing right? Shouldn't we be calling more then? Assuming a pot size bet on the river.
Yes, you are completely right. You'd call all your bluff catchers.
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