Big Pot Review
Posted by Steve Paul
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hi Steve,
Thanks for the video. Could you explain why you think JJ is a call pre vs. a 2% 3bet range with only 100bbs?
Haha because it feels so nitty to fold that. I personally don't like to get my feelings hurt when playing poker.
Not sure on time stamp or if we're ip/oop but someone 3betting 2% is likely to be quite bad at poker, so I think between the times we stack his overpairs and the times we get to showdown and beat AK we'll have a profitable call with JJ.
I was asking about the first hand @ 2:00 where villain appears to be 3betting OOP 2% vs UTG, and 1% vs MP, and villain 3bets to 10bbs. Would you apply this same logic to a hand like 55?
ah ok sorry. I think in this case where it's a reg with otherwise normal stats that those stats are probably slightly unreliable (fairly likely he's quite tight vs ep but wider than 2%). I think ip we can call primarily for set value expecting to sometimes get to sd unimproved and win. 55 similar reasoning applies though the EV will be lower and if I had to guess I'd say very close to 0, probably slightly below.
Also I need a very very good reason to play so exploitably as to fold JJ to a 3b mp vs sb. I don't think his stats over that sample are enough.
Cliff:
- Do not take LSD before watching this video. Ie op has rainbow hud and its kind of trippy
- Op has great laughs when talking about HH. Ie “ I wonder how could I lose a big pot here, HEH HEH HEH HEH HEH”
- AA is a great hand to check and call on 874
- When you at your top of your range, easy GTO call, but tank slow roll call is okay too
- Small blind KQs 3bet or fold. Turn nuts, continue to check and calls, expect villain to bluff and value bet thin
- Small 5bet range is very difficult to balance with 100bb
- When we check KQ on KKJ9 twice, our goal is to rely on him value bet twice. Check raise here would defeat the purpose of check twice. But you run the risk of “ slow play turns into no play” . Just bet and bet here should be standard.
This hand you had KK at 31:00 .You looked at his stats and said “looks like he doesn’t raise a lot, definitely a recreational player”. IMHO players that’s aggressive pre-flop are not necessary aggressive post flop, but players that’s passive pre-flop are much more likely passive post flop. Their check-raising range is very strong. KK was probably not a easy call there.
This hand you had AJcs on 34:25. Without a spade in our hand, I like a bet here. But with a spade in our hand, I think there is some merit in checking and jamming. When we bet twice here, he probably folds all the hands we beat like kq, some TX, 8x if he had any. We can rep QQ pretty well here by checking, so he could potentially start bluffing with some Tx, 8x, j9 combos. We can get an extra bet out of him and potentially get him to fold AQ. When we get called, we still have decent equity. What do you think?
Great video. I like the way you talk about losing hands and downswings. You sound very upbeat and often joke about the tough spots you had. Its great way to look at poker. Thank you for making this video.
Glad you liked the video and appreciate the comments.
re: rainbow hud I've never done much with colours, but now that you mention it is does look a little strange.
re: KK hand, I find it tough to give ranges in spots like that, where some recs have a range of {set} and some can have 88 because they put you on AK. There are definitely opponents where my stack off is very bad though.
AJ hand that's not something I considered in game, but an interesting line. I feel like vs AQ in particular bet/bet is going to be more effective since he will very frequently check back turn, but vs someone who is wide pre and likes to bet for protection x/r is potentially a very good line.
in first hand where you called with JJ, don't you think better hand to call would be AK? so calling AK with no heart and folding JJ looks better if we want to have calling range?
the problem with AK is it doesn't win the whole pot vs some of his bluffs. If the board wasn't double paired then I would agree.
32:30, the 4bet pot with AJ
strange spot, it's not a value bet because i don't see any worse hand calling but it's neither a bluff because it's difficult to make fold better hands like AT (which he didn't fold, maybe he should?)
what do you think about c/c river, is it possible that a competent player could change a hand like KQ or JT into a bluff?
Furthermore, as you are so in trouble on a complete river blank, i have lots of doubts on the turn bet. I think it should be a clear value bet because the oppo can calls with a lot of pair + draws, but then again i don't know what to do on most rivers.
Recently @Daniel Dvoress made a good video on river merging bet, i don't know if you have seen it, but to me it seems a similar situation on the extreme level (not a lot of worse hands/none that pays + not a lot of better hands that fold + lower EV and guessing game when checking river after 2barrell if the oppo is capable of bluffing)
The AJ hand I felt like AT would get folded for sure. I just don't have a lot of hands that can be bluffed here given the makeup of my 4b range preflop. As for x/c river, while I do think turning KQ into a bluff is reasonable he's not going to get there with enough weak hands (imo) for me to be able to bluffcatch profitably. Turn I agree is a very tough spot, I'm not at all sure what's best.
Thanks for the video recommendation I'll add it to my list of videos to watch. I have really enjoyed the videos of his I have watched.
Thanks cool video bro :)
Very nice vid !
16:00 You have jacks and are considering a jam. What worse calls you there? AT?
I expect to very rarely get called by worse. However my hand needs quite a lot of protection and I expect him to play turns very well vs my hand. With only 1 psb behind after calling I think jam is a little better than call.
I found both hands where you shoved JJ OTF kinda confusing, seems like a typical spot where you only get called by better hands. Perhaps this could be a concept for a video in itself, where you show the value of raising for protection, perhaps using CREV or just basic EV calculations?
Sorry all for the delay in responding, had a busy few days with family stuff
Hey Steve, had a question regarding time stamp: 46:38
You mentioned that this is the kind of hand you like to barrel with on the turn. This didnt quite make sense to me as you have 8 outs at best (2 of them being hearts). Lets assume you have 8 outs here, that only gives you 16% going into the river so I'm not sure what kind of equity you're barreling the turn with. Keen to hear your thoughts.
32:30 what about shoving turn with AcJs?
Really looking forward for 2nd part of this :)
Great vid as usual, Steve.
I might be thinking on a lower level here, but it seems like we're calling check-raises too often. I know that folding in those situations is very exploitable, but from my experience I am very often beat when I call down a check-raise.
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