1. As I understand it, in this hand you suggest overbetting your whole value range. I know this is the best strategy when you have either the best hand or air, but in this case you are over value betting some hands that are worse than some bluff catchers (Q2, 76,...). Wouldn't it be better to have a mixed strategy with two different bet sizes?
2. In the last slide, you say that if villain is tight we can value bet lees and therefore we can bluff less. But if villain is tight, shouldn't we exploit that by bluffing more than GT says?
1. To clarify we should only overbet hands for value, that are almost always the best hand. This depends on villain's tendencies, particularly with regards to slowplaying QJ/66/Q7the more often he is check raising those hands before the river, the thinner we can shove for value otr. Also if villain is c/r his two pair/sets before the river some of the time, and is aware of this, he should also realize that his river range is weak and should be inclined to call our overbet reasonably light.
I think the idea of two bet sizes otr is good, there are few things I haven't discussed, such as a small bet potentially inducing c/r bluffs from villain. I'm not sure which bet size has a higher ev, and to calculate that I need to figure out what BB's range is and how he plays it vs both sizes, which I will do but its fairly exhaustive and will be saved for part 2.
For now I would suggest, mainly considering a few concepts.
1. Bigger isn't always better, sometimes a big bet is actually easier to call than a smaller bet because we are repping less value combos, but can have just as many bluffs.
2. The problem is we only have so many bluffs in our range, as we saw in part 1, I think that basically any time we arrive at the river with K high or worse we can shove, particularly because we will end up checking some of those hands otf or ott. That means we probably can't add more bluffs, unless we start upping our flop or turn frequencies, or decide to start shoving hands like 2s3s, however I think shoving hands that have showdown isn't good because even though we will likely get folds 59% of the time, some of those folds will be from hands we beat, meaning it probably makes less than a check.
We certainly could go ahead and bluff more as an exploit, we could even do something like only overbet our air, until villain catches on, but if villain is going to be folding to an overbet 90% while its a great spot to bet all our air, we aren't making very much money with our big hands, and would probably be a better of with a size that allows us to get paid when we have the goods.
In the mean time though lucas I was checking out one of your older videos and picked out a hand you played from there and made a thread. If you have time could you clarify.
Vs some opponents who we know are 3betting Kqo 100%, and checkraise all two pairs on earlier streets we could jam q10 on the river as well. (Plenty of opponents fit this description)
Betting small can even enduce him to shove over our bet sometime as well even with made hands he feels is beat. but if you over bet it kind of eliminates him coming over the top unless hes pretty strong in most situations. I have even under bet rivers and seen guys turn there hand into a shove on the river believing I am going for thin value. Don't you think over betting leaves out the possibility of him shoving the river as a random bluff with your made hands? If the pots 100 bucks and you over bet to 150 or you bet 60- 85 and give him the chance to come over the top all in as a bluff based on his stack size is he just not doing that line enough for it to matter if we are losing value to a bluff shove over our bet on the river?
Definetely an advantage of the small bet is that you can induce check raise bluffs, however its a double edge sword, because while we can get more money from our big hands we also allow villain to make us fold air or thin value . I would say you need to be careful with the 1/2 pot bet and be aware of villain's tendencies. If villain c/r river while there is a GT aspect its also important to recognize that any Q should beat all of of villain's bluffs, meaning that you need to be aware of the moment and villain's tendencies and make your best estimate on where his range is weighted. Keep in mind sometimes villain give away information on previous streets, either through decisions (i.e. not raising), bet sizing, and timing. In reality villain doesn't have a range he has two cards, and while I advocate a strong theoretical framework, you should focus on the whole hand, and pay attention to all the details in order to make the best judgement call when faced with a c/r and holding a marginal bluff catcher.
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Awesome. Waiting on part two.
Very nice video! I have two questions.
1. As I understand it, in this hand you suggest overbetting your whole value range. I know this is the best strategy when you have either the best hand or air, but in this case you are over value betting some hands that are worse than some bluff catchers (Q2, 76,...). Wouldn't it be better to have a mixed strategy with two different bet sizes?
2. In the last slide, you say that if villain is tight we can value bet lees and therefore we can bluff less. But if villain is tight, shouldn't we exploit that by bluffing more than GT says?
Good questions.
1. To clarify we should only overbet hands for value, that are almost always the best hand. This depends on villain's tendencies, particularly with regards to slowplaying QJ/66/Q7the more often he is check raising those hands before the river, the thinner we can shove for value otr. Also if villain is c/r his two pair/sets before the river some of the time, and is aware of this, he should also realize that his river range is weak and should be inclined to call our overbet reasonably light.
I think the idea of two bet sizes otr is good, there are few things I haven't discussed, such as a small bet potentially inducing c/r bluffs from villain. I'm not sure which bet size has a higher ev, and to calculate that I need to figure out what BB's range is and how he plays it vs both sizes, which I will do but its fairly exhaustive and will be saved for part 2.
For now I would suggest, mainly considering a few concepts.
1. Bigger isn't always better, sometimes a big bet is actually easier to call than a smaller bet because we are repping less value combos, but can have just as many bluffs.
2. The problem is we only have so many bluffs in our range, as we saw in part 1, I think that basically any time we arrive at the river with K high or worse we can shove, particularly because we will end up checking some of those hands otf or ott. That means we probably can't add more bluffs, unless we start upping our flop or turn frequencies, or decide to start shoving hands like 2s3s, however I think shoving hands that have showdown isn't good because even though we will likely get folds 59% of the time, some of those folds will be from hands we beat, meaning it probably makes less than a check.
We certainly could go ahead and bluff more as an exploit, we could even do something like only overbet our air, until villain catches on, but if villain is going to be folding to an overbet 90% while its a great spot to bet all our air, we aren't making very much money with our big hands, and would probably be a better of with a size that allows us to get paid when we have the goods.
Will def. have to watch this.
In the mean time though lucas I was checking out one of your older videos and picked out a hand you played from there and made a thread. If you have time could you clarify.
http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/pro-poker-tools-related-question/
Vs some opponents who we know are 3betting Kqo 100%, and checkraise all two pairs on earlier streets we could jam q10 on the river as well. (Plenty of opponents fit this description)
Betting small can even enduce him to shove over our bet sometime as well even with made hands he feels is beat. but if you over bet it kind of eliminates him coming over the top unless hes pretty strong in most situations. I have even under bet rivers and seen guys turn there hand into a shove on the river believing I am going for thin value. Don't you think over betting leaves out the possibility of him shoving the river as a random bluff with your made hands? If the pots 100 bucks and you over bet to 150 or you bet 60- 85 and give him the chance to come over the top all in as a bluff based on his stack size is he just not doing that line enough for it to matter if we are losing value to a bluff shove over our bet on the river?
Definetely an advantage of the small bet is that you can induce check raise bluffs, however its a double edge sword, because while we can get more money from our big hands we also allow villain to make us fold air or thin value . I would say you need to be careful with the 1/2 pot bet and be aware of villain's tendencies. If villain c/r river while there is a GT aspect its also important to recognize that any Q should beat all of of villain's bluffs, meaning that you need to be aware of the moment and villain's tendencies and make your best estimate on where his range is weighted. Keep in mind sometimes villain give away information on previous streets, either through decisions (i.e. not raising), bet sizing, and timing. In reality villain doesn't have a range he has two cards, and while I advocate a strong theoretical framework, you should focus on the whole hand, and pay attention to all the details in order to make the best judgement call when faced with a c/r and holding a marginal bluff catcher.
Great video. Looking forward to part two
Awesome video, quick tip.. put the speed on 1.5x
wow, part 2 is actualy an ellite video, that hurts :/
Great video. Can you please explain how you calculate how many bluffs you play? I get the pot odds of course, just not the bluffs calculation. Thanks
Some great concepts in this video and you make them easy to understand. Thanks I learned a lot.
Sizing has been an issue for me for a while. So I'm learning a lot from your vids in the MTT learning path. Thanks!
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