I think it was one of your previous videos or another elite video where you quote BerriSweet on taking some -EV plays to give back to the community for a better long term future. Would be nice to see this concept applied at lower stakes for an aggressive exploitative approach.
I think playing this 20/15/8 style you were aiming for makes money, but doesn't maximize at lower stakes. Given the reads with opponents cards pretty face up given their timing and bet sizing I think exploitative play is best, but honestly you would crush this level playing at 30/25/12 style despite the high rake! River bluff raises should print as players will value-block bet one pair, but they are not calling raises with one pair very often when there are possible trips, straight, or flush that comes in. Their block bet is 95% of the time face up to their hand strength and they do not get punished because people tend to just fold or call against them as you did in this video, instead of making the obvious +EV bluff raise. Would like to see a 2nd part (3rd part?) to this, idc if 25NL, 50NL, 100NL, or 200NL I think you would do well in any of these pools if you just "roll high" for your decisions or "low" whatever your aggressive number is on your RNG. Recommend checking out ElusiveMark's video on "rolling high" at 200NL as a good example.
Why do you think rake is such a big factor against terrible players? I mostly played at a casino as with a "$6 drop" which is one of the highest in the country besides private games and these games are still beatable for 10bb/hr! The mistakes players make post flop at low stakes greatly outweigh the rake considerations in tougher games. Way too much emphasis being put on how rake impacts the game for soft player pools.
How important is EV line over a small sample? If you are losing money over 5,000 hands (small sample) but your EV line is also way down does it mean anything? On these pokerdope simulations given 25k, 50k, or even 100k hands where a 10bb winner can still be losing over the stretch, wouldn't the EV line (Hero's actual database) show they are winning still? Not concerned with the actual results over the 100k hands, but I would expect the EV line to still be +5bb/100 right?
Thanks in advance for any response or anyone else who responds whether they agree or disagree with my comments.
EV is a denoised version of your win rate (as it removes the AI noise - assuming by EV you mean AIEV). It will have it's own (lower) standard deviation so that allows you to refine your analysis slightly.
Your bigger problem here (as I pointed out on a previous video) is that the normal distribution is a terrible model for a 245 hand sample (2.45 100 hand samples). So the Pokerdope model doesn't even work on this level.
27:36 I looked the 43s hand up in solver cus I'd have called and its raising all 3x around half the time on turn, which was very surprising to me. It actually had a overall 16% freq cus we hit T9 a lot and we have AA at decent freq but something thats really hard to figure out in game. Do you just cut out turn raises here cus there so hard to execute and quite low freq?
I have 6% XR freq on turn, built mostly around T9.
I also have 34 being a continue here by a small amount. I don't mind the fold, as it's near the very bottom of our continue range and I think IP will struggle to find the total air bluffs needed to make it +EV.
16:50 T#1 with AK you say leaning towards a call because opponent could be raising with a hand like A6. We all understand people should not be calling 80% bets with naked flush draws on the turn, but you are applying theory to micro stakes ranges, which does not apply as much. Micro stakes are profitable because of the calling mistakes they make across multiple streets. Also, to expect someone playing a 40 vpip to not call naked flush draw is a little absurd.
On the image below I would like to point out what BB is raising with on the river. It is primarily flushes (shown by the purple color) and some (PcPx) with a club turning itself into a bluff at low frequency. Safe to assume based on MDA that rivers are not being raised often enough as a bluff, so I would not give BB any credit for having TT-77 with a club that turns itself into a bluff here. When you do bet a medium size here on the river for 3/4+ pot it almost never induces any type of crazy play vs the BB. You have a few different data points here which makes this a clear fold IMO. I understand theory is going to be a call at some frequency, but if BB range gets node lock to call more flush draws on the turn, this becomes a clear fold.
1) Do players bluff raise the river often – no
2) Did your bet size induce anything – no
3) Is your range protected – yes
Cool video, it's fun to see you play a wide range of stakes and hear your thoughts on the different metas. At 31:25 we have K9o on BTN vs HJ limp. What does the iso range of your low stakes strat look like here, KTo+, QJo+, ATo+, 66+? Or do we just not dip below premiums still, sticking to the supertight is right model?
I think with the high rake I'd play a pretty tight limp behind range of mostly pairs and suited connectors and then play a more polarized but mostly quite strong raising range to 4x or so.
Can't fold a pair here, don't think you can fold like 54s+ / 75s+ /Axs / Kxs / 22+ so those are a lot of my limps and then I'm doing some mixing with middling stuff and pure raise with like 88+ / AQ+ / ATs + / KJs+ or thereabouts.
About minute 23, you raise AQo from CO and get 3! from the SB. The flop comes A73, SB checks and you bet small. This flop favors the 3-bettor, and he can have AA/AK which you cannot. I can see that when he checks, he often has something and is looking to showdown, so we want value. However, I would rather let him maybe bluff the turn, and don't see many hands other than AQ you would want to bet small with on the flop.
2 of the 3 games I play in are just like this so I really appreciated this video. Especially the thoughts and consideration to rake which is something that has had me greatly cut back my preflop calling and instead 3b, squeeze, and 4b more.
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You have a very weird perception about how low limits play. In my experience regulars there are too tight/passive/nitty.
So by going the same route you are basically turning yourself into one of them instead of really exploiting them.
That's possible, I don't play these stakes often
I think it was one of your previous videos or another elite video where you quote BerriSweet on taking some -EV plays to give back to the community for a better long term future. Would be nice to see this concept applied at lower stakes for an aggressive exploitative approach.
I think playing this 20/15/8 style you were aiming for makes money, but doesn't maximize at lower stakes. Given the reads with opponents cards pretty face up given their timing and bet sizing I think exploitative play is best, but honestly you would crush this level playing at 30/25/12 style despite the high rake! River bluff raises should print as players will value-block bet one pair, but they are not calling raises with one pair very often when there are possible trips, straight, or flush that comes in. Their block bet is 95% of the time face up to their hand strength and they do not get punished because people tend to just fold or call against them as you did in this video, instead of making the obvious +EV bluff raise. Would like to see a 2nd part (3rd part?) to this, idc if 25NL, 50NL, 100NL, or 200NL I think you would do well in any of these pools if you just "roll high" for your decisions or "low" whatever your aggressive number is on your RNG. Recommend checking out ElusiveMark's video on "rolling high" at 200NL as a good example.
Why do you think rake is such a big factor against terrible players? I mostly played at a casino as with a "$6 drop" which is one of the highest in the country besides private games and these games are still beatable for 10bb/hr! The mistakes players make post flop at low stakes greatly outweigh the rake considerations in tougher games. Way too much emphasis being put on how rake impacts the game for soft player pools.
How important is EV line over a small sample? If you are losing money over 5,000 hands (small sample) but your EV line is also way down does it mean anything? On these pokerdope simulations given 25k, 50k, or even 100k hands where a 10bb winner can still be losing over the stretch, wouldn't the EV line (Hero's actual database) show they are winning still? Not concerned with the actual results over the 100k hands, but I would expect the EV line to still be +5bb/100 right?
Thanks in advance for any response or anyone else who responds whether they agree or disagree with my comments.
EV is a denoised version of your win rate (as it removes the AI noise - assuming by EV you mean AIEV). It will have it's own (lower) standard deviation so that allows you to refine your analysis slightly.
Your bigger problem here (as I pointed out on a previous video) is that the normal distribution is a terrible model for a 245 hand sample (2.45 100 hand samples). So the Pokerdope model doesn't even work on this level.
I think that's obviously true!
27:36 I looked the 43s hand up in solver cus I'd have called and its raising all 3x around half the time on turn, which was very surprising to me. It actually had a overall 16% freq cus we hit T9 a lot and we have AA at decent freq but something thats really hard to figure out in game. Do you just cut out turn raises here cus there so hard to execute and quite low freq?
I have 6% XR freq on turn, built mostly around T9.
I also have 34 being a continue here by a small amount. I don't mind the fold, as it's near the very bottom of our continue range and I think IP will struggle to find the total air bluffs needed to make it +EV.
yeah vs most people especially at 25 probly just a bit spewy to continue nice fold
16:50 T#1 with AK you say leaning towards a call because opponent could be raising with a hand like A6. We all understand people should not be calling 80% bets with naked flush draws on the turn, but you are applying theory to micro stakes ranges, which does not apply as much. Micro stakes are profitable because of the calling mistakes they make across multiple streets. Also, to expect someone playing a 40 vpip to not call naked flush draw is a little absurd.
On the image below I would like to point out what BB is raising with on the river. It is primarily flushes (shown by the purple color) and some (PcPx) with a club turning itself into a bluff at low frequency. Safe to assume based on MDA that rivers are not being raised often enough as a bluff, so I would not give BB any credit for having TT-77 with a club that turns itself into a bluff here. When you do bet a medium size here on the river for 3/4+ pot it almost never induces any type of crazy play vs the BB. You have a few different data points here which makes this a clear fold IMO. I understand theory is going to be a call at some frequency, but if BB range gets node lock to call more flush draws on the turn, this becomes a clear fold.
1) Do players bluff raise the river often – no
2) Did your bet size induce anything – no
3) Is your range protected – yes
Cool video, it's fun to see you play a wide range of stakes and hear your thoughts on the different metas. At 31:25 we have K9o on BTN vs HJ limp. What does the iso range of your low stakes strat look like here, KTo+, QJo+, ATo+, 66+? Or do we just not dip below premiums still, sticking to the supertight is right model?
Appreciate any comments you may have.
I think with the high rake I'd play a pretty tight limp behind range of mostly pairs and suited connectors and then play a more polarized but mostly quite strong raising range to 4x or so.
Can't fold a pair here, don't think you can fold like 54s+ / 75s+ /Axs / Kxs / 22+ so those are a lot of my limps and then I'm doing some mixing with middling stuff and pure raise with like 88+ / AQ+ / ATs + / KJs+ or thereabouts.
Very helpful, thanks Ben
About minute 23, you raise AQo from CO and get 3! from the SB. The flop comes A73, SB checks and you bet small. This flop favors the 3-bettor, and he can have AA/AK which you cannot. I can see that when he checks, he often has something and is looking to showdown, so we want value. However, I would rather let him maybe bluff the turn, and don't see many hands other than AQ you would want to bet small with on the flop.
I think small is just the sizing here? It's certainly fine.
Thx! Those are the details I was curious about.
2 of the 3 games I play in are just like this so I really appreciated this video. Especially the thoughts and consideration to rake which is something that has had me greatly cut back my preflop calling and instead 3b, squeeze, and 4b more.
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