have done some low rake calcs with monker for higher stakes (10/20+) and it shows that SB should never call as third player... only like max 5% with some medium pairs
1:00 - I was surprised to see you bluff K9o after flop and turn went x/x. Seems like we are overbluffing here if we are bluffing a hand that strong. In the sim I ran, K9o is a pure check, and the solver is bluffing weaker SDV hands like K4-K2, Ten-High, and worse (river lead range for BB player is below). Was your play more of an exploit vs. a BTN range that you suspected was too weak to defend vs. river overbet?
Generally on a solve like this, where we are looking at bluff candidates, frequency is going to be more important than pure combos. Like a bunch of kx needs to bet. Which kx shouldn't have any significant EV effect.
Davidnw1982 I agree with you that bluff frequency is more important than getting the exact combos right. My point was just that if we bluff K9 (which the solver pure checks), that indicates we are likely overbluffing since we are probably betting the worse Kx at a high frequency. The reason being that there isn't a blocker quality specific to K9o that made us want to use it as a bluff so we can infer that the weaker Kx will be bluffed at a frequency greater than or equal to K9o
Dan A Yeah, this is a fair point, and we want to be cognizant that we aren't just using way too many combos here. I just think some people (not saying you) get caught up too much in the correct combo vs the heuristics of why the solver is taking certain lines, which is way more important imo.
The hand at :46 AK vs JTs. I was working with an AI and came across this lead line. My thinking is that OOP leads become a thing when you have a lot of over pairs vs a large range of over cards and 5 bet bluffs that check back flop at a high frequency. Leading for value/protection here seems like a reasonable way to attack this portion of your opponents range.
Implementation seems complicated but clearly difficult to combat on the fly.
50-08 bit suprised you said pretty high freq raise on the left. Board is better (EV) for our range seems like, but strong 3x(A3 is high) or maybe 32,53 looks more like a raise to me than this one (maybe under 15% raise)
You're correct, this hand class isn't raising flop but it's a very small EV mistake (though I'm prob raising this node with a wonky range if I'm raising hands like this with a high frequency). Looks like it's more polarized, with hands like QJ+bfd being high freq raises, along with lots of gutters/open enders.
Hey Ben! As always... your videos feel like Xmas :)
@ 6:06: 99 hand on QT6 flop
High EV flop for OOP who likes to bet 1/3 with pretty much whole range here.
OTT, If i'm not mistaken a J, K or A are the best cards for OOP. Here you seem to say that 99 is an easy x OTT. Are we not supposed to x with high freq 55, 77 and 88 and bet 99 with more than 60% freq in this spot considering IP never has AK + obvious blockers/outs situation?
As played, IP should choose the bigger sizing quite often, his bluffs being mainly Kx and 9x, especially the lower Kx (K2s, K5s), but higher 9x combos like A9o.
I also wonder if we are not supposed to mix in a raise with 99 OTT about 25% of the time considering we block K9, Q9, 98.
Betting 75% PSB turn about 66% of the time with 99 here seems alright to me. Am I missing something? Then, if IP bets 75% pot OTR, turning 99 into bluff with 4x raise seems fine as well.
You're correct, 99 mixes X and B on turn, and mixes call/raise vs X/B75. I have it as a pure call on the river but it's possible the EV of raising is very close given slightly different abstraction.
What I mean is... if we choose to check 99 OTT and vs IP double barrel, 99 looks like a good x/jam river as we don;t really have many other bluffs on that river.
BBB should cbet whole range and choose the smaller sizing on this slightly higher than average board for OOP.
OTT: I don't think that he is allowed to bet that sizing with under pairs like QQ and JJ where he should mainly bet 30% there with these combos.
If we look at how we should play our pairs in OOP shoes, betting 30% with close to 100% freq with QQ and lower after that, JJ around 70% of the time, TT around 33% of the time and checking any pair below that (88-77-55) seems a fine strategy.
TPs are allowed with the sizing BBB choose with high freq and the lower the kicker, the lower our bet size. For instance, KQ chooses the big bet almost always where KTs plays a mix of big bet and small which is totally logic.
OOP has a decent amount of good Kx due to offsuit combinations in his range, all of them beating K8hh. The double barrel turn bluffs region contain some kind of K blocker like AQ and AJ combos or the region aound 6x like 65, 76. Ultimately, he is allowed to add some Qx bluffs that have at least a GS like QJs or QTs.
OTR: Surprising that all Kx for IP are calling the river jam as well as hands like A9s. I guess blocking AA and AK has some merits. OOP bluff region has some T8s, T7s and 87s as well as missed nut FD like A5dd, A3dd. His bluffs seemed quite thin which made me usually fold the K low kickers in that spot.
Just thought analyzing this spot would be interesting for some ;)
Tough spot, feel like 8h is the stone worst kicker we can have for kx as bluff catches so if we believe our opponents aren't allocating bluffs properly seems like this combo could hit the muck?
Ben Sulsky Poorly phrased, wasn't a comment based on this player more so a general question (which just seems really obvious) at this point, I guess I was wondering more so a threshold for when we can start folding kx based on bad blockers and opponent's bluffing freq
There is a giant region of low EV bluffcatchers Kx-KJ, A9, and so the adjustment would be to fold say 10%-40% of that region, reducing our calling freq by some constant such that we're exploiting low bluffing freq while not being maximally exploitative of it.
Tarpon85 Yeah my thought at the time was it blocks 87hh that plays this way pure while the other combos probably mix to prevent overbluff; looking back its just dumb because bb 3bet vs button open contains so much more of the suited gutshot hands you mentioned while 87hh is one combo
Holiday season videos from Sauce remind me of that one time many many years ago he made a (couple of) Leggopoker video(s), openlimped the SB and I thought he was trolling. Times sure have changed. I'm getting old.
Hey Sauce, great video. I notice that you don’t modulate your raise sizes pre from utg to btn. I see LLinus, BBB, bit2ez, and OtB all go from 213/220 to around 240 to 250. Clearly pio must corroborate this. Is it to de incentivize the 3b or just play .6ish bb pots more often from th btn? Also I see you fold q9/j9o from the cut off in unopened pots and t4s from th btn. What are your min opening thresholds here? Thanks bud!
On the TT hand on QT968 board you snap checked back river. Two questions: does this mean you think he has too many Jx and 7x to bet thinner than a straight? And if you're checking back 2nd set does that not mean his checking range is too strong and he should start implementing leads to get value for his straights?
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lol @ 46:34, would've broken my laptop. Too much money after winning wcoop main..?:D
Nice video!
Would love to see a PIO breakdown of the AK vs JT hand.
Tune in for part 3 then :)
clickbait xD
River seemed like a mixed shove to me, wonder how many A5 in our range and AJo seems like a fold flop/
have done some low rake calcs with monker for higher stakes (10/20+) and it shows that SB should never call as third player... only like max 5% with some medium pairs
1:00 - I was surprised to see you bluff K9o after flop and turn went x/x. Seems like we are overbluffing here if we are bluffing a hand that strong. In the sim I ran, K9o is a pure check, and the solver is bluffing weaker SDV hands like K4-K2, Ten-High, and worse (river lead range for BB player is below). Was your play more of an exploit vs. a BTN range that you suspected was too weak to defend vs. river overbet?
This seems like not a big deal, with K8s mixing bet in the above sim.
Generally on a solve like this, where we are looking at bluff candidates, frequency is going to be more important than pure combos. Like a bunch of kx needs to bet. Which kx shouldn't have any significant EV effect.
Davidnw1982 I agree with you that bluff frequency is more important than getting the exact combos right. My point was just that if we bluff K9 (which the solver pure checks), that indicates we are likely overbluffing since we are probably betting the worse Kx at a high frequency. The reason being that there isn't a blocker quality specific to K9o that made us want to use it as a bluff so we can infer that the weaker Kx will be bluffed at a frequency greater than or equal to K9o
Dan A Yeah, this is a fair point, and we want to be cognizant that we aren't just using way too many combos here. I just think some people (not saying you) get caught up too much in the correct combo vs the heuristics of why the solver is taking certain lines, which is way more important imo.
The hand at :46 AK vs JTs. I was working with an AI and came across this lead line. My thinking is that OOP leads become a thing when you have a lot of over pairs vs a large range of over cards and 5 bet bluffs that check back flop at a high frequency. Leading for value/protection here seems like a reasonable way to attack this portion of your opponents range.
Implementation seems complicated but clearly difficult to combat on the fly.
What do you think?
Tune in for part 3!
50-08 bit suprised you said pretty high freq raise on the left. Board is better (EV) for our range seems like, but strong 3x(A3 is high) or maybe 32,53 looks more like a raise to me than this one (maybe under 15% raise)
and 51-15 T8?? o_O haha what hand you meant?
You're correct, this hand class isn't raising flop but it's a very small EV mistake (though I'm prob raising this node with a wonky range if I'm raising hands like this with a high frequency). Looks like it's more polarized, with hands like QJ+bfd being high freq raises, along with lots of gutters/open enders.
@51:15, meant 86.
Hey Ben! As always... your videos feel like Xmas :)
@ 6:06: 99 hand on QT6 flop
High EV flop for OOP who likes to bet 1/3 with pretty much whole range here.
OTT, If i'm not mistaken a J, K or A are the best cards for OOP. Here you seem to say that 99 is an easy x OTT. Are we not supposed to x with high freq 55, 77 and 88 and bet 99 with more than 60% freq in this spot considering IP never has AK + obvious blockers/outs situation?
As played, IP should choose the bigger sizing quite often, his bluffs being mainly Kx and 9x, especially the lower Kx (K2s, K5s), but higher 9x combos like A9o.
I also wonder if we are not supposed to mix in a raise with 99 OTT about 25% of the time considering we block K9, Q9, 98.
Betting 75% PSB turn about 66% of the time with 99 here seems alright to me. Am I missing something? Then, if IP bets 75% pot OTR, turning 99 into bluff with 4x raise seems fine as well.
You're correct, 99 mixes X and B on turn, and mixes call/raise vs X/B75. I have it as a pure call on the river but it's possible the EV of raising is very close given slightly different abstraction.
What I mean is... if we choose to check 99 OTT and vs IP double barrel, 99 looks like a good x/jam river as we don;t really have many other bluffs on that river.
OOP leading turn with 99 seems ok, checking most rivers and again a big part of our raising range OTR
Hey Ben,
@23:28 K8hh
BBB should cbet whole range and choose the smaller sizing on this slightly higher than average board for OOP.
OTT: I don't think that he is allowed to bet that sizing with under pairs like QQ and JJ where he should mainly bet 30% there with these combos.
If we look at how we should play our pairs in OOP shoes, betting 30% with close to 100% freq with QQ and lower after that, JJ around 70% of the time, TT around 33% of the time and checking any pair below that (88-77-55) seems a fine strategy.
TPs are allowed with the sizing BBB choose with high freq and the lower the kicker, the lower our bet size. For instance, KQ chooses the big bet almost always where KTs plays a mix of big bet and small which is totally logic.
OOP has a decent amount of good Kx due to offsuit combinations in his range, all of them beating K8hh. The double barrel turn bluffs region contain some kind of K blocker like AQ and AJ combos or the region aound 6x like 65, 76. Ultimately, he is allowed to add some Qx bluffs that have at least a GS like QJs or QTs.
OTR: Surprising that all Kx for IP are calling the river jam as well as hands like A9s. I guess blocking AA and AK has some merits. OOP bluff region has some T8s, T7s and 87s as well as missed nut FD like A5dd, A3dd. His bluffs seemed quite thin which made me usually fold the K low kickers in that spot.
Just thought analyzing this spot would be interesting for some ;)
Nice hand!
Tough spot, feel like 8h is the stone worst kicker we can have for kx as bluff catches so if we believe our opponents aren't allocating bluffs properly seems like this combo could hit the muck?
Why do we think our opponent isn’t bluffing enough (besides hindsight bias)?
Ben Sulsky Poorly phrased, wasn't a comment based on this player more so a general question (which just seems really obvious) at this point, I guess I was wondering more so a threshold for when we can start folding kx based on bad blockers and opponent's bluffing freq
There is a giant region of low EV bluffcatchers Kx-KJ, A9, and so the adjustment would be to fold say 10%-40% of that region, reducing our calling freq by some constant such that we're exploiting low bluffing freq while not being maximally exploitative of it.
Tarpon85 Yeah my thought at the time was it blocks 87hh that plays this way pure while the other combos probably mix to prevent overbluff; looking back its just dumb because bb 3bet vs button open contains so much more of the suited gutshot hands you mentioned while 87hh is one combo
I think the 8 is maybe th best kicker as it unblocks JT QT QJs that may be emptying the clip.
Holiday season videos from Sauce remind me of that one time many many years ago he made a (couple of) Leggopoker video(s), openlimped the SB and I thought he was trolling. Times sure have changed. I'm getting old.
Hey Sauce, great video. I notice that you don’t modulate your raise sizes pre from utg to btn. I see LLinus, BBB, bit2ez, and OtB all go from 213/220 to around 240 to 250. Clearly pio must corroborate this. Is it to de incentivize the 3b or just play .6ish bb pots more often from th btn? Also I see you fold q9/j9o from the cut off in unopened pots and t4s from th btn. What are your min opening thresholds here? Thanks bud!
Hi Ben,
On the TT hand on QT968 board you snap checked back river. Two questions: does this mean you think he has too many Jx and 7x to bet thinner than a straight? And if you're checking back 2nd set does that not mean his checking range is too strong and he should start implementing leads to get value for his straights?
Thanks.
At 20.25 you say you rolled a high number here. Why would you even roll here when this is the best Ax to be calling with most likely?
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