Baha Mar $250k: Deep Dive on One Hand
Posted by Daniel Dvoress
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24:10 you accidentally put 5c instead of the 5d and therefore the difference in OOP leading range and IP betting range OTR.
can you explain why the fact that chip value is not linear makes the IP wanna put less money ?
Woops, good catch re: 5c
IP wants to put in less money because losing chips is more expensive than how good gaining the same amount of chips is, so you want to keep pots small. In a cash game with linear chip values, gaining 1k chips 75% and losing 3k chips 25% is the same as gaining 2k chips 75% and losing 6k chips 25%. The latter has more variance, but the EVs are the same. In a tournament, generally speaking, the more chips you win, the less they are worth, so you want to keep pots small. Think of it this way - if you win all the chips in a tournament, you get something like 20 cents on the dollar for them (if first pays roughly 20% of the prize pool), whereas a double at the beginning of a tournament is worth closer (but strictly less than) to 2 buy ins.
Hey Daniel, I really like the format.
I would love to see some ICM preflopsims (like in your 3betpot series). I think there isn't much content out there available and you could either compare RFI/3Bet/Jamranges compared to ChipEV or simply change the positions of Short-/Mid- and Bigstacks and compare how ranges change depending on positions.
Gratz btw for your 1st in the SHR :-)
Glad you enjoyed.
A preflop ICM series is a good idea an definitely something that I will consider.
Lastly, thank you :)
Really good comparision of "apples and apples".
With the huge importance of playing correctly in ICM situations this format is really helpful.
As always you have clear and thorough explanations of the PIO which is great.
Thank you :)
guess who's back :P
I loved the side by side comparison. Very well done!
Hi Daniel,
With no AA/KK/AK traps in Jasons range and your range only having made a slight adjustment to FI, what are your thoughts about these ranges potentially being too vulnerable against squeezes due to ICM?
Also, thanks for the great video! would love to see more of this.
Cheers!
I don't think they are particularly vulnerable, especially considering that there are no clearly bigger stacks behind.
It's true that I'm only opening a bit tighter, and it's true that Jason is somewhat capped, but at the end of the day we are still both really tight and that prevents people behind us getting too crazy. Especially since they don't have a particular incentive to. I think it would be much different if there were a couple of 5mm stacks behind and everything else was the same.
Hello , welcome back and great video . Watched the hand few weeks earlier and I was quite impressed by both plays especially the checkback river from Jason Koon.
I had a more general question concerning my understanding of ICM , considering it is an imperfect model for a lot of reasons and the most important in my opinion is that ICM assumes that the tournament ends right after the hand. So I guess it will tend to generally tighten too much the ranges.
If ICM does not consider future, are those ICM results so valuable ?
Thx for your content .
There are certainly situations where ICM is very flawed, but when it comes to evaluating this particular spot for Jason and I, the ICM model will work quite well. This is because it will be a fairly accurate predictor of our actual EVs in the tournament, since the stacks are distributed pretty evenly. So ICM will assign a reasonable value to having 4mm chips, 3mm chips, 2mm chips, 1mm chips, and obviously 0mm chips.
Some examples of where ICM fails are:
1) overvaluing a middle stack when that middle stack is at a very negative bb/100 because of a lot of pressure from big stacks
2) undervaluing a big stack when that big stack can open heaps and win a bunch of chips because the other stacks are trying to fold into a payjump
Those don't really apply to this particular spot since the range of most outcomes of what our stacks end up at the end of the hand isn't too extreme (obviously I can bust etc, but mostly we are just going to play a small pot), and the other stacks are distributed pretty evenly, and there are a lot of players still at the table, so it's not like getting to 5mm chips lets you run away with the tournament, for example.
Great content and much appreciated as always Daniel.
Excellent video thank you. Would love to see more of ICM related video's.
Awesome video! I´d like to watch you talk about that big hand vs Seidel on the SHRB that you´ve won! : )
Great video! I would definitively like to see more of these ICM vs Chip EV comparisons. Maybe also some ICM VS ICM comparisons would be nice. (Where you would compare plays based on different stack size distributions).
Love this stuff!, also really enjoy your Hand histories
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