$25PLO: Phil Reviews a RIO Hero
Posted by Phil Galfond
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Hey Phil,
Thanks for the vid!
@11:45 w/ AT97 on Q72,Qdd after calling c/r and betting 1/3 in pos, when ck'd to, are you intending to bet large on lots of rivers? I'd imagine this is close to bottom of range by the time we see just about any river besides A or 7, having called flop c/r. And the 9d gives us the green light on diamond rivers, no?
Great question!
The situation is very strange because once OOP polarizes his range with a flop c/r, you expect him to way overfold turn (in practice and in theory). Once someone polarizes on flop and then doesn't fold turn, that implies that they either:
a) Had value on the flop that is either slowplaying (QQ, Q7) or pot controlling (22) or
b) Turned enough equity with one of their bluffs to c/c or
c) Bluffraised flop with a weak Q (QJJ8)
On this particular board, the only way to turn enough equity to c/c this would be if he turned diamonds, so I would tend to give up diamond rivers, even with the 9d. And, to be honest, I would probably be giving up every river in practice until I see my opponent raising flop with KK or JJ type hands.
QJJ8 should also fold to a big bet on non-boat rivers, but I'd be unsure enough in that, and in most unknown players raising QJJ8 often enough, that I'm still giving up all rivers as an exploit by default.
For what it's worth, my intention was to give up rivers if called on the turn, as I had a specific read on the villain that he XR's dry flops and then gives up if called.
If I had been called on the turn I would definitely not have considered a bluff on a diamond river, as I don't see what he would be folding.
Even if checked to on a blank river, I think I'd have given up, as I would have thought it is still too likely he's trapping.
Answered the above question before reading your answer. Glad we're on the same page!
Really love this format. Great video Phil!
1:30 overprs in these spots seem difficult to play. Are we basically bet folding bare overprs here?
24:15 is similar as you mention we would just be bluffing if we cbet flop or check raise flop. Is this just bluffing hoping to get our opponent off qqxx?
Thanks!
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