Hey Fbb,

I think betting the flop with T8ss is ok, kind of a protection bet in a 3way pot. But i could agree that he will improve the ev of his cbet by cbetting smaller than 66%. The play that is not standard on his side its bet the turn, which is a more clear check back, and the bet beeing so big it just decrease even more the ev of betting turn. About the turn peel i´d say that you are right on beeing a close call. But if he has every flush draw on the turn that a 17-20% UTG range could contain, my hand has close to 35% eq, which is hard to fold. And beeing a weak and unknown player i will tend to compare the risk of calling with the risk of folding. So i think that if he is cbetting the flop with a low frecquencie i could end myself making a mistake of a couple of blinds, but if he was cbetting like any flushdraw, anystr8draw and any backdoor flush draw hand on the flop, i potentially could be making a worse mistake by folding.

And about the last hand you are right that i could have some AQ to valuebet the river too, but with a lower frecquencie since its a hand that i could coldcall preflop a lot. Even that i think that you should check sometime with hands like AA/KK, not only on the turn, even the flop too, since the MP call3bet range hasn´t got to muck Qx that wants to call 3 streets for 100bb+, and even less when you hold hands like AA/KK that are blocking top pairs combos.

Hey imawhale26,

I would agree with you that the Ts turn its a good card for us, in fact the equity of our range improves from a 49% to a 55% in that turn. That could encourage us to develop some kind of leading strategy on the turn which includes hands like KQ/AK/AQ and some value hands like JJ/TT/JT/Q9s. But opponent range keeps beeing strong, and he is not capped enough for us start leading our entire range. He still has some hands like 88/TT/JJ and he could even have something like Q9s with a smaller frecquencie. Thats why i think that leading 100% its too much on this spot. Generally will be very though to find spots where we get a coldcall in position and we could start leading full range on the turn after xC the flop, because on most of spots check is our main line and when we xC we have a lot of marginal hands relative to the IP range where he is just calling with a 5-8% of hands.

Hey sirsnake,

AQ9 its a board where i expect a lot of villains cbet almost his entire air hands on flop, and when they check back the flop, his range has a lot of medium showdown hands like A2/Qx/9x/PocketPairs. Thats why i like to add some deception to my betting range adding some hands like 2nd pair. But the hands that i should do that are more like KQ/QJ than Q8. So i agree that my turn lead is a little bit loose, at least for a 60% bet size, i would guess that its more reasonable lead for something like 33%. But even that check should be your -almost always- line with this hand..

Hey prisonmike,

Raising the river with this hand its an ok option. But you should do it with a very low frecquencie or you would tend to overbluff this spot. Remember that hands like K8/K7/K6 sometimes bet the flop, and sometimes bet the turn, so you dont have any single combo of those ones. But as you said, you perfectly could have those hands and you would raise, so you have to raise some combo bluffs. But remember that 7x its kind of high enough into your range to just have to call like almost always, and raise its an option but so much less frecquent compared to calling.

Juan - wanted to echo this question. I did a quick analysis in Pio as a rough check. Perhaps it's too tight, but I used a polarized mixed 5.3% 3B range for BTN and a ~5% UTG CC range (detailed ranges at end of post). On this runout, it has Hero betting a little less than 24% but never A5s - instead Hero value bets overpairs or better, balanced primarily by AK. One factor - which gets at holabcn's notion that Hero's range is capped - is that Pio has Hero bet the turn with the straight (JTs), sets, two pair (Q9s, 98s), and even most of his 87s. So it seems like Hero just doesn't have a ton of value combos that check turn and bet river, and thus doesn't need THAT many bluffs and AK is largely sufficient. As a result, in the GTO strategy Villain c/r 18% of the time, and in practice especially if he thought Hero was bluffing too frequently, he could bluff-raise even more. What do you think Juan?

For BTN it was 100% weight on QQ+/AK, and then 25-50% weights on 77/88/JJ, A2-A5s, AT-AQs, KT-KQs, Q9-QJs, J9-JTs, T8-T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, and AQo
For UTG it was 100% weight on TT-JJ, 50% on AK, 25% on QQ+, and 10-75% on A2-A5s, AT-AQs, suited connectors from 76s to KQs, AJ-AQo, and KQo