$50NL: How The Player Pools Differ
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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Love it; I'm still working on getting past this exact game and hearing your breakdown gave some insight. Thanks
Thanks EditBay, best of luck moving up!
Is the gigantic IP 3-bet in the KK vs 55 hand an exploit cause you had the guy marked as a fish already or is this something you are experimenting with and if so do tell?
No, it's small variation I use that doesn't change the mathematics much. I've played it for years so I feel very comfortable with the line.
Can you expand on it not changing the math much - OOP should be folding way more so not sure I'm following.
If I raise to 8 to win 4.5, I need him to fold 64% before ATC breakseven. If I raise to 11 to 4.5, I need him to fold 70% for ATC to breakeven. He can fold a little more (1 in 20 times) against the bigger sizing, but if he makes the mistake of folding much more than the bigger sizing makes more money. Most players use a smaller sizing here so they lose less against 4-bets and can call 4-bets more easily, but I've been playing so long at the larger sizing that I think it's a better play for me, because I can use my experience.
Hmm. I look at this spot differently I guess. I usually look at this from the perspective of the defender and how much equity can they realize OOP vs a very strong range. From messing around with this BB vs BTN opens relatively small changes in size have pretty big effects on how the profitability of all the hands on the margins of a calling range changes. Maybe I'm wrong but a lot of hands in the small PP and middling suited connectors regions should go negative when facing an 11bb 3-bet vs an 8 bb 3-bet.
It's not a bad thing to make those hands -3 bbs as opposed to -2.5 bbs when we 3-bet. Hypothetically, if he folds all of those hands, then more hands should become profitable 3-bets (which in turn forces him to call some of these hands).
nice vid, Tyler.
at 13:00 you talk about J8o being a "negative" bluff. This word confuses me a little in this context. I'd guess you are just implicitly comparing it to the check option and concluding checking this combo with no backdoors is generally better. I agree with that, however I don't think betting any combo can go near to "negative EV" in a spot where all hands have some equity and BB will have to overfold to any reasonable sizing, considering his big range disadvantage.
at 10:50, turn overbet is very interesting to me. On a 4-straight I think PIO usually goes for smaller turn sizings, saving the big bets for the river, because the board got locked up and often it won't be easy to get 2 more overbets of value from much worse than straight. Do you think in practice SB will be so capped on this turn that we want to start overbetting immediately?
It's a microstakes game, I don't expect anyone to playing GTO. However there are some decent heuristics, we can derive from GTO to help us improve our game.
One of these heuristics is to default check bottom tier bluffs like J8o, because they are likely worth little on the flop and easy to make mistakes with on the turn and river. You can argue that the AcKc2h is an exception to this rule, but realistically BvB, this board favors the OOP but not heavily. Additionally most models assume a 1/3rd sizing and this particularly player chose 2/3rds which is substantially cuts the size of the c-betting range. My model has J8o betting worth 60bb/100 with a developed checking range and 25bb/100 with 100% c-bet at these sizings. The increase in value when a checking range is introduced indicates that checking is likely higher value.
On 6d4c2d3s, if he has KTo here, he has a 5 less than 10% of the time. He needs to call the overbet 40% of the time to make my bluff with ATC breakeven and something like 50% to make this combo breakeven. People really don't like to call overbets with less than two pair here, so I think the bet is clearly profitable.
Good Video...How did you get the hole cards shown for Ignition? There used to be a program called holdem manager or something that allowed us to see them when watching replay.
Send me a message if you do not want people to know it.
You can download the hand histories after 24hrs then download the hands into PT4.
That s an interesting one , great job !
At 12:00 bvb spot, do you think raise (like 2.3x ,2.8x region) a lot against a sb player who tends to bet too much on flop is a good idea vs a small size ?
And what deviation do you recommand on bvb spot playing theses NL50 NL100 games ?
Cheers.
The best deviation is to generally open too wide from the small blind, because the player pool usually plays more tightly and passively (probably correctly because of skill level).
I've never found flop raises to be very effective outside of specific player types. People like to win the pots they are betting in and this usually forces fold frequencies down. There are some player types (namely tighter tags) that you could consider raising against, but overall this has never been terribly effective.
Great video Tyler! I’m currently playing 100nl and 50nl online trying to grind it up and move up stakes! So this videos great,
It’s awesome to hear your analysis of the player pool in this demographic. I think a common misconception is that players don’t generally bluff enough at these stakes, and they tend to always have it on the river. Although if you dive deeper into there lines, they often don’t make sense! Just about paying attention while you play and get a feel for their range in specific hands/lines they take! Thanks!
Thanks TruePower! i'm glad to provide some value.
lmao just rip the river
really great explanation why this jam is just bad, and youre only getting called when your beat.
if villains always checking here his non value hands basically can never call when he bets because its always value! which means hes not bluffing enough lol
Yeah very easy to do.
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