In the hand starting at 11.15 can you explain in more detail why this is a good value check raise? My initial thoughts are: While we know that he probably started with a weak draw from not capping pre, we don't know if he has improved after the first draw. As a rough estimate we might be about 60/40 ahead if we are ahead and 40/60 behind if we are behind? Going with this estimate, the options are: If we raise, we put in 2 bets good if we are ahead, and 3 bets badly if we are behind. If we call its +1 and -1. The chances of him improving are probably around 20-25% (lets say 25)
So EV of raising is 0.75(0.6 * 2 + 0.4 * -2) + 0.25(0.4 * 3 + 0.6 * -3) = 0.15 and EV of calling is 0.75(0.6 * 1 + 0.4 * -1) + 0.25(0.4 * 1 + 0.6 * -1) = 0.1
Can you comment on my assumptions and calculations? Another thing to think about is that
by raising we become unbalanced and he might be able to make good decisions later putting us on a strong draw. Would you make the same play against a strong player? (Said strong player would have probably capped pre, but how much EV should we sacrifice to keep our range balanced?)
Hey Dylan, great video. Around minute 26 in the hand where you make the 3rd nut high in omaha h/l don't you think paer has a much better option to just flat flat call and hope you call instead of 3betting since you are competent enough to fold and he could easily only end up with 1/4 of the pot in the way which the hand was played? He also gets another bet by you potentially with you knowing you only need to call 1 more bet and there would be no action left behind and he can be near certain he is at best chopping the pot with Munchen. I feel like it's actually kind of a costly overall mistake by him unless he thinks you guys are both droolers even with his hand that has blockers.
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Hi Dylan thanks for the video!
In the hand starting at 11.15 can you explain in more detail why this is a good value check raise? My initial thoughts are: While we know that he probably started with a weak draw from not capping pre, we don't know if he has improved after the first draw. As a rough estimate we might be about 60/40 ahead if we are ahead and 40/60 behind if we are behind? Going with this estimate, the options are: If we raise, we put in 2 bets good if we are ahead, and 3 bets badly if we are behind. If we call its +1 and -1. The chances of him improving are probably around 20-25% (lets say 25)
So EV of raising is 0.75(0.6 * 2 + 0.4 * -2) + 0.25(0.4 * 3 + 0.6 * -3) = 0.15 and EV of calling is 0.75(0.6 * 1 + 0.4 * -1) + 0.25(0.4 * 1 + 0.6 * -1) = 0.1
Can you comment on my assumptions and calculations? Another thing to think about is that
by raising we become unbalanced and he might be able to make good decisions later putting us on a strong draw. Would you make the same play against a strong player? (Said strong player would have probably capped pre, but how much EV should we sacrifice to keep our range balanced?)
Good video please make more of these ( despite me trolling you in chat the other day that i would unlike your vids when you binked river :-)
If you fancy skipping the NLHE and PLO to get in more content on other games i am sure that would be ok IMO.
Cheers
Hey Dylan, great video. Around minute 26 in the hand where you make the 3rd nut high in omaha h/l don't you think paer has a much better option to just flat flat call and hope you call instead of 3betting since you are competent enough to fold and he could easily only end up with 1/4 of the pot in the way which the hand was played? He also gets another bet by you potentially with you knowing you only need to call 1 more bet and there would be no action left behind and he can be near certain he is at best chopping the pot with Munchen. I feel like it's actually kind of a costly overall mistake by him unless he thinks you guys are both droolers even with his hand that has blockers.
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