4 Table $50/$100 PLO (part 1)
Posted by Phil Galfond
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Nice update to the site Phil and great video as always!
Thank you and thank you! I'm glad you're enjoying the update.
Nice vid as always, Phil.
A quick question:
Here you said you would slightly prefer check/calling on flop.
I was wondering if you would think this is a spot where people continue to bluff on turn/river? We have pretty good equity against most of his bluffs, but don't do very well against his value range (I'm doubtful about him value betting QQ/JJ, nor bluffing with 4 overs unless he improves on turn), so he should be bluffing at least some amount to make up for it. I'm assuming he will follow up with smaller bet sizings on turn/river rather than potting it or something, offering us excellent odds, but once we call preflop AND the flop our range is pretty well defined and I wasn't sure how often we will face another barrel on turn and river. If he triples this, we are not really excited about calling down.. so perhaps we can call turn and (sigh) fold river, I guess?
I still think calling is better than raising on flop, because raising QQ will often make our x/c range significantly weaker, and our x/r range probably doesn't have tons of 3+ or KK either so he can click it back with AA/KK with some bluffs, sometimes call and call down, etc. Good thing about raising would be that we can sort of protect our hand by folding out his A/K high (or AK high sometimes), and getting him to rebluff, but then again I don't think his value/bluff 3b ratio would be way too off for this to be insanely profitable.
After all this rambling I feel like I'm not even sure what I'm asking, but my original question was: how often do you think he will bluff on turn/river, and what would your plans be against that range/strategy?
Good question, as usual.
The answer is that I'm not quite sure how frequently he'll be bluffing, so let's look at it another way.
I think that it looks a whole lot like I have TT-KK (if not a 765 type hand) when I x/c flop. I will mix in some 3x+ of course, but I'm not sure if I do it often enough to prevent him from being able to value bet all three streets (if they brick) with KK+.
This could lead to a long discussion about how often we should slowplay and if we should consider having a non-existent (or very small) x/r range on the flop, but that's a topic too large for the comments section of a video.
I will just say it's costly when I do slowplay, either because a turn or river hits that causes him to check back an overpair, or because he would have floated or attempted to re-bluffed a flop raise. So, my intuition is that we should be raising a decent chunk of our 3x hands.
So, if we look at it from his perspective -
If his value range is KK+, that means he gets to bluff an awful lot, especially when even his Axxx bluffs have reasonably semi-bluffing equity.
I still think (as I said in the video) that it was a mistake to choose this hand to x/r with, as it fits very well in a x/c range - I just need to deal with figuring it out on the turn and river. I got a bit ambitious :)
I'm very confused about our lead with 653x on A42ss vs Ben and friends @ ~32 mins.
We overcall in the BB to close the action pre and then lead into the field.
It feels like since we're just always (almost always?) squeezing AA here we cant really have top set.
Given that, and the fact that most fds are too weak to lead and hands that include top pair and the nfd don't seem to have much incentive to lead our range becomes extremely 53 heavy here. (Not sure how often we lead A4xx/A2xx but it seems unlikely to me? [But I might be wrong])
I'm not entirely sure how to articulate my next thought but it sort of goes something like this.
Given our range is so heavily weighted towards wheels (when we lead) it feels like we almost never get 3 streets here when it bricks. When it doesn't brick it feels like we just get murdered by villain because he simply knows what we have and can very easily outplay us/play his range perfectly on spades and board pairs.
It feels like a spot where we should play our range passively and let the board develop more. These types of combos really help our range when the board bricks out (we now have combos of the nuts on runouts that are worst for our range) . These are the run outs that our .x/c range requires the most strengthening on as I assume we have a reasonable number of spades and A2xx/A4xx etc to protect us on board pairs and spades (but none of these want to lead). Thus, when we lead this combo we get outplayed 2/3 of the time when someone peels and get our calling range run over when it bricks and we x/c.
The board is going to pair or complete the flush ~2/3 of the time. Given all that it feels really gross to me (and sub optimal) that we flopped the nuts, and then took a line where when someone continues we just get smashed 2/3 of the time, and limit the value we can get the times it bricks. As far as I can tell, the only real advantage of betting is that we get some hands that would let the flop check through to fold their equity but really, those hands are either mostly garbage (which has like 5-7% or w/e) and some bare medium flushdraws (which have 30%). Being slightly unfamiliar with PLO I'm not sure exactly how important that sort of thing is, but it feels to me like it's not as helpful as protecting our range and not turning our hand face up.
What are your thoughts on this?
Hey Chris- Very good question, to which I'm not sure I'll have a satisfactory answer or not. I'll start with, well, where my thinking starts -
Boards which create the potential for made straights get checked around a ton in 4 way pots like this. I can't throw out a number with any confidence, but I will say that if I check here, I'd expect it to be checked around far more often than not.
Because of that, I like to lead a fairly strong range on these flops. If I don't lead anything, then my strong hands miss value and give free cards to draws which would otherwise fold (or call and put money in bad). I'm much less concerned in a 4-way pot about protecting my checking range, and even about protecting my x/c range. Anyone who opts to bet with a weak range here in an attempt to exploit my weakened checking range is likely going to face consequences, and given that they need to bet a strong range, they aren't going to have enough bluffs to really punish me on bricked off turns and rivers.
So, I feel pretty strongly that in general, we want to lead a strong range in these multi-way pots.
You make some excellent points about this specific board, however.
First, let me say, that I will have almost all rainbow AAxx and plenty of AA93ss type hands in my calling range here. That is relevant of course, but maybe not as much as we'd initially think.
The types of strong hands here that we could consider leading with are:
53
AA
44/22 with backup
NFD with AK+ or 65
Leaving 53 alone for a second...
Dry AA doesn't get value from a whole lot, as it blocks so many two pair combos, though it does get some protection from the number of weaker draws. Still, since we block so many of the weaker hands we'd get value from, I don't see it as a super attractive lead.
AA with strong spades has much less fear of the consequences of running into 53, but it also needs no protection at all. It can get value from slightly weaker draws and from sets. I suppose this makes a pretty nice leading candidate, but we won't have a ton of combos of it.
44/22 with backup - We run the risk of forcing in money vs AA (against which we are drawing slim), and while we don't block as much 2pr, the risk reward scenario gets a bit ugly. That said, we can expect the BTN to have 3-bet almost all AA combos (many players 3b 100% of them here), so if the initial raiser folds we can be a lot more relaxed about our set under set risks. All in all, I think this makes a so-so lead.
NFD hands are tough, mostly because I'm not in love with the idea of bluffing brick rivers when we block the most likely combo draw for our opponent to have called with, leaving him with plenty of straights and sets. NFD with straight blockers is a nicer option for sure. The problem, with these hands, though, is that by leading into 3 others we will usually make weaker flush draws fold, narrowing their ranges almost exclusively to sets and straights, with a little 2pr.
So, while I feel strongly that I want a strong and balanced leading range (so that I don't run into the board coverage problems you describe), I'm not entirely sure where to find all of the hands.
I've got some action ATM but I didn't want to leave you hanging. I'm curious to hear your (and others') thoughts.
The three guys with tighter ranges whiff this board unless they have AA (which only the PFR has with any frequency) or 53 (which no one has really besides us), most of their continuing range will be various 2pairs/NFD/FD+TP type of hands. So I'm pretty thrilled when I flop a set, or the NFD, and I don't think it's a problem to balance a leading range on various runouts. Yes, if all the money goes in on the flop or on blank turns, people will usually have NFD+65, 53, or AA+something, but you need to realize that if they tighten their ranges this much then you can win a lot of pots when they don't go all in.
Phil- I thought you were really on top of your video making game in this one, I really enjoyed it ! My continued thanks to you for being brave (dumb?) enough to keep making honest videos at high stakes!!
Haha.... at 39:53 do I see that you have a custom tag for 'sauce'?
Thanks, Ben. Been doing it for a while and they aren't beating me yet... we'll see how long that lasts!
And yes, you get your own tag <3
Sick Update to site, will fall asleep to this now
+1 very nice update !
ty!
Nice update.
On pacing- I prefer when you let the video play with little to no pausing. Any pause over 10 seconds too long imo.
Seems like the update doesn't work in Explorer, but then, what does?
I enjoyed this vid but to answer your question I would prefer slower personally. I liked the recent vid you did where you used software to break down a hand (think it was poker juice and then CRev). Thanks Phil.
Yeah, we are working on a lot of kinks still, especially with certain browsers.
Ty for the feedback.
The new website layout is good but the video is displayed too high and when you do other things you comeback to the vid and you always finish by missclicking on a link from the upper menu..... and you have to restart the vid again its so frustrating (esp after a tilting session) do something about that please...
Love the changes to the site - very clean and professional.
I would slightly prefer newer content... but sometimes older sessions can be relevant and interesting as well.
(obviously, feel free to battle Isildur HU at 200/400 plo)
Thanks for all the feedback guys, both on the site and the video. Noted :)
I would have played the 10887 hand different. Apart from folding preflop which I think is ideal from the SB, on the flop I almost always lead out. I am not looking at winning a big pot as much as not losing a big one.
By checking the flop, I could potentially be giving away free cards to over pairs to turn full houses. I also like to know immediately if anyone else has a 7 or JJ in this spot.
Depending on the laggie fish to make a move sounds fine in this spot if you really think he is that crazy, but I don't think check calling is the right way to play this hand in the long run.
Either lead out or check / min raise.
Thinking about it leading out means you lose out on a Cbet by an overpair or just the pre flop raiser.
Checking gives away free cards if pre flop raiser checks behind, which isn't so horrible considering the odds of actually turning gin.
Checking in the hope of a cbet and taking it away with a min raise seems like the most money that one can make in this spot (in the absence of the laggie fish)
I think this situation is almost always win a small pot or lose a big pot.
Sorry, what time was this hand at?
First hand you discussed. top left, Action starts at 2:00. Sorry left that detail out
Hi Phil!
In these hand vs mammasaidtko that you hit full on the river with Td7d8d8s (min 14) in that rivers you would fold and If you were mammasaidtko how would you play your hand?
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