I don't expect him to fold any nut spade combos to my raise ... I just expect him to have raised a fair amount of them on the flop.  I agree that he can have a few though.  I just eliminated some of them.

I'm still torn on that hand.  I think he has a fair amount KKss and QQss hands that would fold when I pot turn, which is really attractive to me.  I'm leaning towards potting, but I'm honestly still very unsure.  I think the fact that I have one pair and can make him fold a lot of one pair hands (which have plenty of equity) is enough to make me wanna go for it.

he can still call with a lot of his range, and he probably wouldn't fold on the river with like 1/3 psb left.

I think that a lot of his turn calling hands (non jamming) are 976 or QJ9 type hands, so I likely would opt not to bluff brick rivers and instead just check-decide.

Oh, maybe I didn't word it correctly.  I wasn't implying that he would fold Axss to your raise, I was saying that he can have a lot of Axss that he wouldn't have (re-) raised on flop.

Another thing is, this turn seems to me like a spot where we would want to pot with our entire betting range.  Actually, this might be the case for lots of other turn cards as well (not sure though).  That said, do you think there was a merit for x/r'ing flop a bit larger, so as to avoid this awkward SPR on turn?

Thanks a lot man, I am learning so much from your vids!

Thanks man! Means a lot :)

Hey mason,

You picked a very difficult spot to ask a question about :)

I feel compelled to call it off if he jams, however I think it very well could be a fold against any reasonable range.  That's just off the top of my head, but I'm sure we could assign a range or two and play around with PPT.

As far as turns, I would make some very hard decisions.  Each turn is different, so it's difficult to cover all of them.  I think I'd be more likely to bet (1/2 pot) on a high flush card than a non-flush straight card so that I can make him fold wraps.  There aren't many bricks for our hand, so the non draw completing cards get awkward for sure.  I'm sorry I don't have a better answer for you.

In deeper stacked live games, yeah, I'd be very willing to bet-fold a hand like this on a number of turns.  I'd also be less likely to raise the flop like I did (unless my opponent was adjusting to deepstack play by going nuts with IP flop raises).  I will occasionally mix it up with sets, although usually top set is getting 3bet on the flop to max value against other sets.

I'm a nit!

Interesting, as I considered it a somewhat standard fold.  I may play too weak on these boards OOP, but, wanting a little more raw equity than this hand has.  I guess it's one of the better floats, but I hate that I (probably) need to x/f turn.  You've made me curious how often I'm folding this flop though.

Looking at the % of the time he has a 9 (assume he shoves for value/protection). When he has 9s in his range he can then shove non 9 hands to make you indifferent with your bluff catchers and make you fold hands with equity (is this a good way to look at it?). 

**2447+1425(2)+2625(2) / 2625 = 4 = 25% bluffing frequency**

EV:

0% = $2447

10% = 13.3% => 2447(.876) - 1425(.133) = 1930

20% = 26.6% => 2447(.734) - 1425(.266) = 1400

30% = 40% => 2447(.6) - 1425(.4) = 900

50% = 66.6% => 2447(.334) - 1425(.666) = -130

But I think we need to compare the EV not to open mucking, but to checking...that’s where I get a little lost

sted - Thanks for putting some work into this question.  I appreciate it!

It's a difficult problem to look at because to compare the EV of betting to the EV of checking, we must make countless assumptions about how he plays the turn and river, and account for the board runouts.

If the flop was rainbow, I might feel differently, but I expect him to fastplay a good chunk of his 9s on the flop and call with almost all 44+ pairs and almost all flushdraws.

Because of that, this is a board I like to continue barrelling with my weak semibluffs, and therefore I want to have plenty of value/protection betting hands as well.

I like the animations :(

It's basically all nonsensical, which is why I don't get into it.  Based on general feel as well as who games run around (more than my actual perception of how good they are).

RIT,

I am not confident enough in BB defending ranges to give strong definitive answers.  Some players have put more work into it than me.  Many of the players I respect most have extremely wide BB defending ranges, and it seems right to me, so it's what I do.

Truth is, it's likely that a large portion of our preflop range is so close to neutral in expectation that it barely matters what we do with it.  I'd suggest tightening or loosening up based on preference and your comfort with playing OOP (and against specific opponents).

For now

Is that really +ev Phil? 0ev at best, think about it.