I think I'm actually going to take Leo's side here. My thinking is that this river bet sizing is a mistake.

1. I don't believe IP can value bet more thinly than a 9xxx here given the presence of the extra AA/KK/AQ that exists in OOP's range

2. Since IP is primarily targeting these hands, sizing up to full pot seems like the preferred sizing as a small sizing just let's these hands off too cheaply

3. My guess is that Joni selected his sizing too quickly (not a dig at Joni, it's much easier to think through these things while not 4 tabling zoom) and may not have adjusted his range accordingly and thus might have a bluffing ratio that is more in line with laying 2-1.

4. I think the presence of turned JT/T8 that check back even despite our blockers gives Joni enough bluffs that he has to regulate his bluffing frequency OTR (making it easier to overbluff, especially given the smaller size he chose).

Hey man, thank you glad to be back :)

@31.11 I guess something like TpTk+Gutter ex. AQ78hhxx

@45.55 I think in general here im fine with betting pott, i rly want as much fold eq as possible since I should get to this river with a lot of air but i would not hate betting 70% either. Some players wont attack this board that frequently and with a more value heavy range you might want to size it down here to induce some lighter calls but in the end of the day i think a avg op calls a 70% bet here with the same range that calls a pot bet.

//Leo