38min top left it has to be a mistake to not push PF equity and 4B with AKK against a 70/40/50. Even over 11 hands the odds that he is a tight solid player is nil. The implied odds aren't good since everyone expects someone to have KK in a 4way 3B pot and you're OOP against 2/3 of the players. You do have good relative position but the loose maniac isn't going to have a shoving hand that often on the flop and you have bad absolute position on the deepest stack.
There aren't really that many hands that push solid equity in a 4-way pot. This hand is no exception. At least if you assume that the other two players have somewhat reasonable hands. Try running this hand against 30%+10%+10% to get an indication. (actual ranges are obviously somewhat different, but the end results won't differ all that much)
But more than the hand itself, stacks and position just don't seem great for a 4-bet here. The most likely case is that you end up at least 3-way on the flop, and still probably at least a pot sized bet left with one of the players. And out of position. That's a perfect setup for making mistakes, and the 1-2% equity you *might* have pushed preflop doesn't make up for getting 200bb in bad or flipping on the flop imo.
Sure, if you have specific information about your opponents, then maybe you can make assumptions about their ranges. I don't think you can automatically exclude AA from players ranges in general. Certainly not from the 3-bettor, but given stack sizes, all players are not 4-betting all AA in this situation.
I had AKKx in my own 4-betting range for a long time, and it was basically just a disaster. Half of the time I was pushing very little equity, and the other half I ran into AA and was completely crushed.
I can't give a definitive answer any better than you guys can come up with with calcs. I just know from experience that people make a lot of mistakes jamming $ in with AKK in multiway pots because of the reasons Jonna mentioned (you don't push that much equity when none of them have AA, and you get stacks in awful when one of them does, AND you have some slight playability issues on flops).
Awesome to see you folding the JT97ss on top left at 33 mins. I think it's the right play though I almost never see anyone make that play. (not that I see what people fold, but I see people call there with way worse than that, and sometimes even 4b JT97)
PLO 51:30 top left table, villain ch be Kc9s3s + makes a delayed cbet on 9c. I just want to share my thoughts and it would be nice if you could correct me where I am off. - Villain's range is highly capped on this turn card (Pair/OP/few trips). I think cbetting most nines (hoping to take down the pot) makes sense, because they have little showdown value and will mostly improve to weak two pair. Maybe he will ch be sth. like 9:(QJT!ss,ss!As,Acc). But it should not be a major part of villain's ch be range. By ch/r potting turn and potting any non-Ace/King? river we can make villain bluff catch for 160+ BBs. Even if villain improves OTR (most likely a nutflush) he will have a hard time calling for roughly 115 BBs. Exploitatively shouldn't we take this line with our entire range expecting many folds? Balanced I guess we raise for value with trips+ and mix in hands like bare Kxxx/FDs and fold some air?
Putting ourselves in villain's shoes, do you think this is a must bet OTT after capping our range OTF versus a competent/aggressive player. Would you feel comfortable to call a raise with OP+NFD OTT and calling a ps bet OTR with the nut flush?
You're absolutely right that he is capped here, and we can definitely take advantage of that with parts of our range.
With KQJxss, my hand is just too good to turn into a bluff/semibluff. I would choose to x/r turn with FDs that have no showdown value and my very weak Kx. I could also choose some other weak hands if I think he'll be folding enough. Double paired hands like 6644 make good semibluffs here since you almost always have 4 clean outs and you'll get paid off on the river by 9x (and 9x will rarely boat up on your boat cards).
His turn decision is a tricky one, and a bit too large to explore here. I can say that it is theoretically fine to bet with a capped range in spots, but in this particular spot he doesn't have a lot to protect against AND I suspect he has few bluffs in his range (which need him to bet AA so that he can bet air), so checking back might make more sense.
13 40 Why not overbet 33 on the turn, rather than c/r (on 2T9h 3h)? I don't think that your non-showdown draws want to c/r very often when he's going to check back a lot. You have lots of draws yourself, and the threes don't block any of his calling range.
One small criticism: Whenever it's a half/half video, it's usually 80% PLO. Obviously understandable because that's your game, but I hope you can make it 60/40. :)
I was curious about the A5s hand and the math behind it. With no other info don't we have to assume he's playing GTO in this spot before we can do any math? With no info I'm not sure how you would go about determining value vs bluff combos. I mean we kinda have to know a little about his BTN 3b strategy before we can develop a counter strategy. Or am I just completely missing something? At the very least we need to know his BTN 3b frequency, right? I mean if he's 3b 2% in this spot I don't think we can have any combos of bluffs. There must be something about this situation I'm not understanding, I hope you can enligten me. Thanks Phil, you rock.
I think how you play against unknowns is basically your strategy against the average player at these stakes. That does not mean GTO. Every decision someone makes is a commentary on their perception of the game balanced against their perception of their opponent. The fact that Phil is a thinking player, and not just clicking buttons (unless auto-piloting) means that we can infer what he thinks of the player pool at these stakes by his actions against unknowns.
I have a user-unfriendly macro that does the math for me based on the 3/4/5betsizes and effective stacks and MDFs if you want to PM me to get it. BEWARE though as it was more of an exercise to force myself to have to learn how the math worked rather than for it being that useful !!!
Say for sake of argument we limit our 4bet bet size to give villain pot odds between 2.25:1 and 3.25:1. I plug the numbers in and On this size our optimal value-hand contribution turns out to be between 51% - 56%, which gives us between 9 - 12 combinations of 4 bet bluffs with a value range of 12 {AA KK}.
We can even squeeze it up to (34.5 + 6.5)/6.5 : 1 or 6.3:1 for a min clickback 4bet, giving us up to 14 and a half combinations.
33.00 top left table. I understand Phil's arguments on this fold. But it is definitely not something that I would have given much thought about before watching this. I would be really interested to hear anyone's thoughts on why this should not be a fold.
Hi Phil, quick question, I have seen you fold pretty quickly 6778ss from UTG. Is these kind of hands too weak to play in that position? Would small rundown like 5678 be any different? Thanks again for the video and comments!
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38min top left it has to be a mistake to not push PF equity and 4B with AKK against a 70/40/50. Even over 11 hands the odds that he is a tight solid player is nil. The implied odds aren't good since everyone expects someone to have KK in a 4way 3B pot and you're OOP against 2/3 of the players. You do have good relative position but the loose maniac isn't going to have a shoving hand that often on the flop and you have bad absolute position on the deepest stack.
There aren't really that many hands that push solid equity in a 4-way pot. This hand is no exception. At least if you assume that the other two players have somewhat reasonable hands. Try running this hand against 30%+10%+10% to get an indication. (actual ranges are obviously somewhat different, but the end results won't differ all that much)
But more than the hand itself, stacks and position just don't seem great for a 4-bet here. The most likely case is that you end up at least 3-way on the flop, and still probably at least a pot sized bet left with one of the players. And out of position. That's a perfect setup for making mistakes, and the 1-2% equity you *might* have pushed preflop doesn't make up for getting 200bb in bad or flipping on the flop imo.
I don't have pokerjuice someone else will need to run those numbers which will be more accurate.
Sure, if you have specific information about your opponents, then maybe you can make assumptions about their ranges. I don't think you can automatically exclude AA from players ranges in general. Certainly not from the 3-bettor, but given stack sizes, all players are not 4-betting all AA in this situation.
I had AKKx in my own 4-betting range for a long time, and it was basically just a disaster. Half of the time I was pushing very little equity, and the other half I ran into AA and was completely crushed.
I can't give a definitive answer any better than you guys can come up with with calcs. I just know from experience that people make a lot of mistakes jamming $ in with AKK in multiway pots because of the reasons Jonna mentioned (you don't push that much equity when none of them have AA, and you get stacks in awful when one of them does, AND you have some slight playability issues on flops).
It appears to me to be a very close spot.
Awesome to see you folding the JT97ss on top left at 33 mins. I think it's the right play though I almost never see anyone make that play. (not that I see what people fold, but I see people call there with way worse than that, and sometimes even 4b JT97)
Hi, ty for the nice content.
PLO 51:30 top left table, villain ch be Kc9s3s + makes a delayed cbet on 9c. I just want to share my thoughts and it would be nice if you could correct me where I am off. - Villain's range is highly capped on this turn card (Pair/OP/few trips). I think cbetting most nines (hoping to take down the pot) makes sense, because they have little showdown value and will mostly improve to weak two pair. Maybe he will ch be sth. like 9:(QJT!ss,ss!As,Acc). But it should not be a major part of villain's ch be range. By ch/r potting turn and potting any non-Ace/King? river we can make villain bluff catch for 160+ BBs. Even if villain improves OTR (most likely a nutflush) he will have a hard time calling for roughly 115 BBs. Exploitatively shouldn't we take this line with our entire range expecting many folds? Balanced I guess we raise for value with trips+ and mix in hands like bare Kxxx/FDs and fold some air?
Putting ourselves in villain's shoes, do you think this is a must bet OTT after capping our range OTF versus a competent/aggressive player. Would you feel comfortable to call a raise with OP+NFD OTT and calling a ps bet OTR with the nut flush?
Great question.
You're absolutely right that he is capped here, and we can definitely take advantage of that with parts of our range.
With KQJxss, my hand is just too good to turn into a bluff/semibluff. I would choose to x/r turn with FDs that have no showdown value and my very weak Kx. I could also choose some other weak hands if I think he'll be folding enough. Double paired hands like 6644 make good semibluffs here since you almost always have 4 clean outs and you'll get paid off on the river by 9x (and 9x will rarely boat up on your boat cards).
His turn decision is a tricky one, and a bit too large to explore here. I can say that it is theoretically fine to bet with a capped range in spots, but in this particular spot he doesn't have a lot to protect against AND I suspect he has few bluffs in his range (which need him to bet AA so that he can bet air), so checking back might make more sense.
Thanks a lot for the video.
13 40 Why not overbet 33 on the turn, rather than c/r (on 2T9h 3h)?
I don't think that your non-showdown draws want to c/r very often when he's going to check back a lot. You have lots of draws yourself, and the threes don't block any of his calling range.
One small criticism: Whenever it's a half/half video, it's usually 80% PLO.
Obviously understandable because that's your game, but I hope you can make it 60/40. :)
I was curious about the A5s hand and the math behind it. With no other info don't we have to assume he's playing GTO in this spot before we can do any math? With no info I'm not sure how you would go about determining value vs bluff combos. I mean we kinda have to know a little about his BTN 3b strategy before we can develop a counter strategy. Or am I just completely missing something? At the very least we need to know his BTN 3b frequency, right? I mean if he's 3b 2% in this spot I don't think we can have any combos of bluffs. There must be something about this situation I'm not understanding, I hope you can enligten me. Thanks Phil, you rock.
I think how you play against unknowns is basically your strategy against the average player at these stakes. That does not mean GTO. Every decision someone makes is a commentary on their perception of the game balanced against their perception of their opponent. The fact that Phil is a thinking player, and not just clicking buttons (unless auto-piloting) means that we can infer what he thinks of the player pool at these stakes by his actions against unknowns.
I have a user-unfriendly macro that does the math for me based on the 3/4/5betsizes and effective stacks and MDFs if you want to PM me to get it. BEWARE though as it was more of an exercise to force myself to have to learn how the math worked rather than for it being that useful !!!
Say for sake of argument we limit our 4bet bet size to give villain pot odds between 2.25:1 and 3.25:1. I plug the numbers in and On this size our optimal value-hand contribution turns out to be between 51% - 56%, which gives us between 9 - 12 combinations of 4 bet bluffs with a value range of 12 {AA KK}.
We can even squeeze it up to (34.5 + 6.5)/6.5 : 1 or 6.3:1 for a min clickback 4bet, giving us up to 14 and a half combinations.
33.00 top left table. I understand Phil's arguments on this fold. But it is definitely not something that I would have given much thought about before watching this. I would be really interested to hear anyone's thoughts on why this should not be a fold.
Hi Phil, quick question, I have seen you fold pretty quickly 6778ss from UTG. Is these kind of hands too weak to play in that position? Would small rundown like 5678 be any different? Thanks again for the video and comments!
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