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$2k 6-Max PLO SCOOP Live Session (part 6)

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$2k 6-Max PLO SCOOP Live Session (part 6)

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Phil Galfond

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$2k 6-Max PLO SCOOP Live Session (part 6)

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Phil Galfond

POSTED Jun 23, 2014

Phil continues to battle towards the money in the $2k PLO SCOOP event while mixing in some $50/$100 Zoom PLO.

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Don Q 10 years, 9 months ago

5min top right. We have position, the unknown probably has AA everytime, maht probably has a highish card hand...how can we fold a hand this connected? We can play flops extremely well and have like 29% equity 3way pre.

Phil Galfond 10 years, 9 months ago

I think the 3bettors hand will dominate ours often enough that we aren't in a positive implied odds situation on flops.  We could run some math and figure it out for sure, but I lean towards folding here.

__data__ 10 years, 9 months ago

19.20 i think you are always folding without the Qh. likely flush combos he is value betting on turn+river.... 


a2,a3,a4,a5,a7,a9,at,aj


kj,kt,k9,k7,k5,k4,k3,k2 (I think he'll defend akqx suited to king)


jt,j9,j7 


(19 combos)


hands you've blocked with Qh:


aq


kq 


qj, qt, q9, q7, q5, q4, q3, q2 (assuming he'll defend some akqx suited to queen, some kqjx suited to queen, some qqxx suited to queen)


(10 combos)


let's say 1/3 of the combos have been subtracted from his value range. my question is does this really change a fold into a call here? you need to be right 27%, so if he has it 40% of time when you don't have the Qh, and so now with the discounted third it's dropping the the area where you can call. this is excluding the chances of him bluffing with a better hand, but let's leave them out at the moment. 


My problem is that you are always talking about card removal, but you don't talk very much about proportions of the hands which we are discounting. if we are only blocking 1/4 of the flushes does this change it to a fold? I'd like to know more precisely what is going on. 


Thanks very much for your time


Hokunali 10 years, 9 months ago

35:26, top left table

So normally I agree/understand most of your plays Phil, but how can you check here?  Very few hands that would check raise you on flop (set or maybe nut flush draw), so why not build the pot on flop? This way if you do improve on turn, and someone else either continues to chase and/or hit the same straight as you, you'd stand to take down a huge pot by the river.  Please elaborate on your thoughts here. 

Phil Galfond 10 years, 9 months ago

As you've seen and will see throughout this series, I try very hard to reduce my variance in PLO tournaments.  This hand is a check in cash (in my opinion), but a close one.  In a tournament, I think it becomes a very clear check to control the pot size, to not build a pot against stronger draws, and to avoid getting x/r'd.

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