It's hard to play well for 14 hours straight. Giving donkament fish credit for 4B bluffing flops, double floating 2 check raises on 7666 with air. It's....very unlikely. It's probably even optimistic at 25/50.

LOL at calling Dagunman a "donkament fish".

Hey Jonna,

I played this a long time ago, so I don't recall all the hands.  Once we get down to HU there are no longer ICM considerations. Dagunman was one of the stronger players at the few final tables, and stacks are pretty short.  I don't think that I have enough of an edge to pass up on +EV plays at this point, chip lead or not. 

Ok, thanks Phil.

Hey Sro,

Thank you for the questions, and I'm glad you enjoyed the series!

8:30 - You're right.  I think betting was likely bad against the way he played.  I normally think it's very close and I slightly prefer betting because this is a board that is better for my range than for his, but I should've made an adjustment and checked back.

Be careful checking back bottom two as a rule.  The board texture matters a lot.  On this board I should have more AA and I believe more 53, 44, 22, though I'm not 100% positive on the last three.  He should be have a little trouble x/r'ing against my range because of that.

10:00 - Your points are good ones, but I think that when he (mostly) caps his range I would like to have some larger bets involved in my strategy.  Otherwise he can get to showdown too easily on a board like this (where my x/r range is very narrow) by betting flop small, checking back turn, and only being faced with a 1/3 pot river bet at most.  This incentivizes him to bet all of his weak Ax hands as well as weak draws and maybe even some TT type hands for protection. 

This seems to be a theme lately w/ questions on my videos (long discussion about it last week).  If an opponent is truly capped, there's no logically sound reason to not have a larger bet-size.  If he's close enough to capped (which he is here), I feel the same way.

(GTs question Below is a different story)

It seems like people want to bet smaller "so they can get called" but if you have some air in your range, betting larger gives you the best chance to win with as many of those air hands as possible.

25:00 - I go back and forth on strategies on monotone boards, but raising a T high flush for value here would need to be a strong exploitative adjustment in my opinion.  It's very hard for me to get paid off on three streets by a range that I'm ahead of.  I'd rather use it as a bluffcatcher (or river value bet when he checks turn).

I do x/r bluff with #1 or #2 blockers a fair amount (or wait until turn to x/r).

As played, I didn't feel like he had a lot of hands that could call me.  A river bet seems fine though.  Hard to get value by betting or checking.

GT how much you think KKxx can call after b/c twice ? 220k would be my guess. Blocking AAxx does not make us want to bet even smaller to get called by KKxx ? 

Peter Jennings and Phil discussed some on his river bet sizing on part 13.

Amazing series Phil, learned a lot. 

Having KK or AA doesn't make a big difference for him. We flatted from the BB and this line is clearly nuts or air. Having the Ah blocks some of the combos that Phil could turn into a bluff, but that isn't very relevant here. Phils bluffing range in this spot should be very narrow so he should never bluff with bad blockers anyways.

Determining how large of a bet he can call on the river mostly depends on his own turnbetting range. Phil didn't make any assumption about his range, the only thing he said was "I want him to think I'm trying to make him fold aces". The pot was 209k on the turn and Phil put in additional 191k+441k. In order for this to work as a bluff his turnbetting range should have few quads in it. Since there are more combos of quads than combos of AA-KK, bluffing should be quite suicidal here.

Ty for the answer, pure class. 

Also thought that bluffing with big sizing into quads-heavy range would be weird (in a sense of being very bad).

As I just said above, I have been getting a lot of sizing questions that I don't totally agree with.  This doesn't fall into that category though.  Theoretically, I can't have a sizing this big. You're absolutely right.

I suppose I was getting ambitious and trying to be exploitative, but I think this was a mistake.  20 hour sessions are hard, especially when you're talking for 14 of them :)

Hi GameTheory, sorry but what do you mean by capped/uncapped?

thanks,

Pete

A capped range is a range that doesn't have (any) hands above a certain hand strength. For instance if Phil's opponent would always 3-bet the flop with a 6, then he never has quads on the turn after just calling on the flop. In that sense his range would be capped.

When a range is uncapped, it will cost more to run big bluffs or to value bet thinly.